The first autumn poll by Metron Analysis, presented on Mega’s main evening news bulletin, showed New Democracy’s lead over ELAS increasing from 13.3 points to 14.4. The governing party, at 30.2% in the vote estimate, recorded a marginal rise in voting intention, from 25% in the company’s late-June poll to 25.1% today, but showed a 0.2-point loss in the electoral estimate, as undecided voters accounted for just 10.4%, down from 12.3% in the previous poll. Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s suitability for the premiership was recorded at 30%, up one point, while positive opinions of the government’s performance stood at 29%, up from 28%.

Metron Analysis confirms the polling ‘braking’ of ELAS shown by polls following the Thessaloniki International Fair: Tsipras’s party stands at 15.8% in the vote estimate, down 1.3 points, while the former prime minister loses two points in suitability for the premiership, falling to 13% from 15% in June. His gap with the leading Kyriakos Mitsotakis rises to 17 points, from 14 in June. In voting intention, ELAS falls from 14.1% to 13.1%, despite the decline in undecided voters.

PASOK narrows the gap with ELAS, gaining 1.1 points in voting intention and rising from 9.4% to 10.5%. In the vote estimate, it gains 1.2 points and stands at 12.6%. ELAS’s lead falls from 5.7 points in June to 3.2, while Nikos Androulakis’s personal rating also moves upwards, gaining three points in his assessment by voters as leader of the opposition, with positive opinions rising from 13% to 16%. He also gains two points in suitability for the premiership, although remaining in single digits, rising from 5% to 7% and reducing his gap with Alexis Tsipras to six points from 10.

Metron Analysis also confirms the major polling decline of Maria Karystianou’s Hope for Democracy, which falls from 7.5% in June to 4.4%, dropping to eighth place in the rankings from fourth place in June. Hellenic Solution now occupies that position, rising by 1.2 points, from 5.7% to 6.9%, followed by KKE at 6.1%. The decline of Karystianou’s party gives a small boost to Course of Freedom, which rises from 5.6% to 5.8%, while Voice of Reason gains one and a half points, rising from 3.8% to 5.3% in the vote estimate. The poll produces a nine-party Parliament, with MeRA25 clearing the threshold at 3.5%.

Niki remains outside Parliament at 1.7%, despite recovering half a percentage point following Karystianou’s decline, while SYRIZA is measured at 1.5% and Kasselakis’s party at 1.2% in the vote estimate.

The Samaras party

The ‘very likely’ potential vote for the party being formed by Samaras remains steady at 5%, while 8% again say it is ‘quite likely’ that they would vote for it. It is nevertheless noteworthy that the proportion of those who say it is ‘unlikely’ that they would vote for such a party has increased to 68%, from 65%.

Dissatisfied society

Forty-nine per cent of respondents say they are personally worse off than they were a year ago, a figure that is four points higher than in the company’s previous poll. At the same time, just 13% say they are better off compared with 2025 – the lowest percentage of the past six months. However, the proportion of those saying that the country is moving in the wrong direction has also fallen, from 69% in May to 66% today.