Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis returns to the Maximos Mansion, the Greek premier’s official office, on Monday morning after a week in San Francisco and New York, and will chair the regular “morning coffee” meeting with his closest aides.

The change of scene could hardly be sharper. In the US, Mitsotakis was praised for transforming Greece’s international image and held talks with leading figures in business and banking. At home, he faces a simmering energy crisis, rivalries within the government and his ruling New Democracy (ND) party, and feuds between business groups.

The political climate is not unfavourable for the government, but the coming months are expected to be extremely difficult. The time difference of 10 hours with the West Coast and seven with the East Coast made communications harder while he was away, though the broad lines of policy were agreed in principle.

The government will announce a support package for petrol and diesel on 30 September, in coordination with Greece’s oil refineries, which will make announcements of their own. A second set of measures, on heating oil, will follow on 14 October. According to one source, the heating allowance could rise substantially, by as much as 20%.

It remains unclear whether refiners will keep up their discount of five cents a litre on unleaded petrol. The squeeze is far more acute on diesel, but in several parts of the country unleaded is selling at more than €2.40 and even €2.50 a litre.

The government’s priority is a noticeable intervention on heating oil, with the aim of bringing its starting retail price to around €1.50 a litre. The prime minister’s office firmly rules out a windfall tax on the largely export-oriented refineries, pointing to behind-the-scenes understandings that their support will continue. A senior government source told Proto Thema that the opposition’s insistence on cutting excise duty on fuel was pointless, since the discount applied at the pump had much the same effect as a tax cut.

Waiting on Brussels

Mitsotakis is clearly aware that Greece’s macroeconomic outlook is favourable, but also that the approaching winter could put households under severe strain. A number of ND officials have reached the same conclusion and have recently used public appearances to call for a cut in fuel excise duty, without taking account of the limited room in the public finances.

The prime minister’s difficulty is that proposals for a Brussels-approved cut, with the cost exempted from the budget’s spending ceilings, have gained little traction at the European Council. European measures on energy costs, covering both fossil fuels and natural gas, are nonetheless certain to be discussed at the EU summit in mid-October, with markets signalling acute distress.

The prime minister’s office has taken note of a letter from dozens of industry associations calling for government support. Mitsotakis’s appearance at the annual general meeting of the Hellenic Federation of Enterprises (SEV), the country’s main business lobby, on 6 October is keenly awaited. Large companies are profiting from Greece’s improved economic standing and the new opportunities it brings, but energy-intensive firms, and small and medium-sized businesses in particular, are struggling, and their complaints are reaching the government.

Mitsotakis is expected to set out his position at the opening of the cabinet meeting on 30 September. The session, which will focus on legislating the measures he announced at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF) earlier this month and on public sector hiring plans for 2027, coincides with the extension of fuel support.

High horses and false notes

Back home, Mitsotakis must also restore some order to the political debate. During his absence, many observed a lack of political grip at the Maximos Mansion, which appeared unable to rein in ND figures who aired all manner of views in public. These included an ill-judged remark by first-term Pieria MP Spyros Koulkoudinas, who suggested that bumper-to-bumper traffic on Athens’ Syngrou Avenue was almost a sign of social prosperity. Deputy Foreign Minister Harry Theocharis also provoked a fierce political backlash when he said: “There are parties that represent the hard-luck cases. But there are also the solid, respectable households.”

The comment that dominated, however, came from former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis, who accused unnamed government officials of getting too big for their boots. In politics, how something is said matters as much as what is said. Mitsotakis has urged ND officials to show humility and restraint, and warned them not to regard themselves as irreplaceable, but Bakoyannis put it far more pointedly.

Her choice of words is not seen as accidental, and it sparked a debate within the party. Many conceded that “Dora said nothing we don’t hear in the coffee shops”, while others, including Health Minister Adonis Georgiadis and former minister Makis Voridis, took issue with the substance of her remarks. Government spokesman Pavlos Marinakis, whose relations with Bakoyannis have recently been strained, stepped in to distance himself, saying in effect that the prime minister would be the one to judge people’s conduct.

The polls

To map the complex landscape ahead, government strategists are closely studying the qualitative findings of opinion polls, which are not published in full. ND appears stable at around 30% in vote estimates, give or take depending on the pollster. The Greek Left Alliance (ELAS), launched in May by former prime minister Alexis Tsipras, is showing signs of plateauing or dipping slightly, while the socialist PASOK is edging up by around a percentage point, helped by leader Nikos Androulakis’s stronger showing than Tsipras at the Thessaloniki fair.

Strategists are also tracking less visible shifts. The newly founded party of Maria Karystianou, whose daughter was killed in the 2023 Tempi rail disaster, is proving a shooting star, fading with each successive poll. Those who said they would vote for her are going somewhere, however, and there is also a pool of undecided voters, many of whom backed ND in 2023.

Unknowns remain too. One is a potential party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras and how deeply it might cut into ND’s 2023 base. Another is a possible party linked, in whatever form, to Ilias Kasidiaris, the convicted former MP of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, should it clear vetting by the Supreme Court chamber that rules on whether parties may contest elections.

Some findings could prove crucial for a strong ND result at the elections due in spring 2027. According to data available to government strategists, support for single-party government over coalition rule is steadily climbing above 50%, reflecting a growing sense that nobody can reach agreement with anybody, a dangerous recipe at a time of international instability. Notably, around half of PASOK voters also lean towards single-party government, allowing Mitsotakis to keep up his “siege” of the party.

Research also shows that a critical mass of voters, put at 38%, want “political stability”, a demand currently represented only by ND. A desire for “political change” remains the majority view, at over 60%, but it has not coalesced around any party or alternative candidate for prime minister. ND is retaining around 70% of its 2023 voters, a figure that could rise as elections approach and politics becomes more polarised, while Mitsotakis holds an overwhelming lead over his nearest rival on suitability for prime minister.

If these balances hold, and the centrifugal pressures currently suspected but not systematically detected fail to materialise, ND will have a strong chance of winning a third term. Mitsotakis, however, pointedly avoids the phrase “third term”, believing it goes down badly with voters.

Against this backdrop, the party will attempt a show of unity to mark its anniversary (ND was founded on 4 October 1974), with its traditional torch emblem restored to the event poster for the first time in a while. The celebration will take place on 5 October at the old depot of OSY, the Athens bus operator, and will bring together party figures from different generations.

This time, there will be none of the rather awkward personal invitations from Mitsotakis to former leaders. Two years ago, at the party’s 50th anniversary celebrations, those invitations exposed his rift with Samaras and former prime minister Kostas Karamanlis. Samaras was expelled from the party two months later. A channel of communication with Karamanlis is being sought, albeit without much enthusiasm. The former prime minister largely keeps his distance, and a fairly brief phone call from Mitsotakis on his recent birthday did little to restore their personal relationship.