Hello! Well, it turns out that we can’t even match Paris when it comes to chaos, however much the old and new SYRIZA leftists and their fellow travelers wanted it, predicted it and actively encouraged it, along with the usual self-important commentators.

The rally in Athens was a fairly standard demonstration, with 4,000–5,000 regular protesters from groups such as PAME and ANTARSYA, along with roughly the same number of students, who dispersed even earlier because the weather was perfect and they headed off for coffee.

There was also a somewhat heavier police presence than usual, courtesy of Michalis Chrysochoidis, just in case Molotov cocktails entered the picture. But the youngsters didn’t seem in the mood for that kind of fun. Perhaps they’re saving it for the anniversary of Alexandros Grigoropoulos’ killing or November 17. Until then, normal life in central Athens goes on.

One Mavraganis Is Not Another, and the Liolios Case

Now, you might ask, who cares about yesterday’s march through what almost became the Champs-Élysées when the basketball world was rocked by the arrests of Liolios and several referees?

The developments are indeed striking, but we should wait to see the case file today. So far, what we’ve seen are complaints filed by teams and individuals.

Still, I can’t help observing that finding €800,000 in cash at a basketball referee’s home is hardly an everyday occurrence. At Liolios’ home, meanwhile, investigators reportedly found just €7,000.

I’m also hearing that there are two protected witnesses who have spilled the beans on everything, including some extraordinary allegations involving match-fixing even in school championships.

We’ve certainly found ourselves a fascinating subject for discussion, and I suspect we haven’t seen anything yet!

Oh, and one bizarre episode: Initially, owing to a judicial mistake, police arrested the wrong Mavraganis yesterday afternoon. It was a former minister in Antonis Samaras’ government, who found himself caught up in the affair for several hours.

Money Talks in the Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal

The ratification of the Turkey-Libya maritime agreement by the House of Representatives in Benghazi is now a reality that Greece must contend with on the ground.

Senior Foreign Ministry sources tell the column that the development is obviously unfavorable, but in practical terms it changes nothing and will not alter Greece’s plans for energy projects in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Both Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis made numerous phone calls, speaking with all the key players in Europe and the region, including Israel, Egypt and Cyprus. They all share the same assessment of the development, which explains yesterday’s rare joint statement by all 27 EU member states on the issue.

I also hear that Gerapetritis spoke with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas following her meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Brussels. He was told that Fidan had very little to say on the matter, whereas Kallas had been unequivocal.

As for the Libyans, however, money clearly talks.

And since money is what interests them, my understanding is that, just as Turkey found Athens standing in its way over participation in the EU’s SAFE defense financing program, Libya will encounter similar Greek resistance when it comes to funding it seeks or receives from the European Union.

Of course, there is always a balance to be maintained to avoid triggering a new migration wave from Tobruk.

With Gerapetritis heading to the United Nations next week, followed by Mitsotakis, it will be particularly interesting to hear what they have to say about this issue as well.

Greece also retains the right to extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles whenever it deems appropriate, although we are not at that point.

Chevron’s Exploration to Proceed as Planned

The Turkey-Libya agreement naturally raises a series of other questions.

For example, will Chevron’s exploration activities proceed as planned in offshore blocks that overlap with areas claimed under the maritime memorandum?

Various retired military officers appearing on television and radio have expressed doubts.

I asked a well-placed source yesterday, who confirmed that the plan remains to begin seismic surveys in November.

“After all, the Americans have been aware of the geopolitical risks for some time and are sticking to their plans,” the source told me.

The Formula for the Electricity Interconnector

Meanwhile, with time running out before the issuance of the NAVTEX notices covering work on the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electricity interconnector, which would allow the French company’s vessel to return to sea, I understand that Greece and Turkey are exchanging views on how the surveys might resume.

On one hand, the Turkish side, through Fidan, says it wants written rather than merely verbal notification that work is about to begin.

On the other, Gerapetritis has stressed that the French company, which now holds a majority stake in the consortium, could simply send a written notification, in the form of a communiqué, to Turkey as a coastal state.

Crucially, however, the company would not have to await Turkish consent before carrying out work authorized by the Greek authorities.

Mitsotakis and Saudi Arabia

Mitsotakis will also have several meetings with an Arab focus in the coming days.

Today, as I reported yesterday, Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will visit the Maximos Mansion. Further down, you’ll read about the 15 business agreements expected to be signed in connection with his visit.

In the days immediately ahead, despite the volatile regional situation, the plan is still for Mitsotakis to travel to Riyadh for a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

This remains the plan even though the EU-Gulf summit scheduled for Sunday has been canceled, as a European source pointed out to me yesterday.

However, following last night’s developments involving the evacuation of American embassy personnel, I’m not sure how feasible the visit will prove in practice.

The British Lord’s Report on the Metro

I was informed yesterday that British Lord Mair, who recently visited Athens and inspected the route above the stalled tunnel-boring machine on Metro Line 4, will deliver his definitive findings on the safe resumption of work around December.

In other words, it seems rather unlikely that work will restart before the end of the year. January now looks more probable.

ELPEN, Copelouzos, Archirodon, Tottis and 11 More Business Deals at the Greece-UAE Forum

Moving on to business news, let’s begin with the Crown Prince’s visit, which I mentioned yesterday and referred to above.

During the Abu Dhabi Crown Prince’s visit to Greece, 15 memoranda of understanding are expected to be signed between Emirati and Greek companies and organizations as part of the Greece-UAE Strategic Forum, with 100 confirmed Greek participants and 57 Emirati participants.

In infrastructure, Trojan National Projects & Construction LLC, a subsidiary of a Gulf construction group, and Archirodon are planning a joint venture to bid for projects worth up to $10 billion across the Middle East and North Africa.

Abu Dhabi sovereign investment group Mubadala will continue its cooperation with the Hellenic Development Bank of Investments, while the potential involvement of Greece’s Growthfund is also under discussion.

There are several agreements in technology.

Core42, G42’s cloud computing and artificial intelligence infrastructure company, and Khazna, a leading Middle Eastern data center provider, are pursuing a partnership with the Copelouzos Group to develop a 24 MW AI infrastructure facility, with an option to expand capacity to as much as 80 MW.

Inception42, G42’s application development company, is advancing cooperation with the Office of the National Security Adviser on AI applications for public administration and education.

Presight, G42’s AI-powered data analytics company, is pursuing cooperation with the Ministry of Digital Governance.

An MoU is also expected between Khazna and Masdar Greece–TERNA Energy for the development of green data centers.

Serdal Holding, the investment group belonging to Sheikh Hamdan bin Sultan bin Hamdan Al Nahyan, which helps international companies enter the Emirati market, will sign an MoU with Greek communications and AI applications company AWG.

Serdal Holding will also sign an agreement with pharmaceutical company ELPEN and, in the defense sector, with military equipment manufacturer ELMON SA.

In the agrifood sector, major Gulf supermarket operator Lulu Group is moving forward with imports of products from Oscar Chocolates and TOTTIS BINGO.

Agricultural production and agritech group Elite Agro will cooperate with RIVULIS on irrigation systems and is also in talks with NOVATEC over fruit and vegetable sorting equipment.

In healthcare, medical technology group M42 is pursuing cooperation with Athens Life Tech Park in genomics, clinical research and precision medicine.

Finally, Enterprise Greece will sign an MoU with the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Pierrakakis and Giuliano da Empoli

If nothing else, the images circulating yesterday from the ELIAMEP event hardly resembled those of an ordinary discussion about Europe’s future.

Despite the weighty subject, more than 1,600 people braved the disruption caused by traffic restrictions and made their way to the Hellenic Cosmos auditorium to hear Kyriakos Pierrakakis and Giuliano da Empoli exchange views on Europe’s prospects in an era increasingly defined by power.

The audience listening to the Eurogroup president and the Italian-Swiss author included numerous politicians, diplomats and senior executives from banks and major corporations.

Among those I spotted were Ministers Adonis Georgiadis, Stavros Papastavrou, Stelios Schinas and Nikos Papathanasis, around 10–15 deputy ministers and at least 50 lawmakers from the ruling New Democracy party.

Among the institutional figures present were Parliament Vice Presidents Thanasis Bouras and Giorgos Georgantas, as well as Theodoros Rousopoulos, president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

People involved in organizing the event confirmed those numbers and shared something even more impressive: 60 ambassadors or heads of diplomatic missions in Greece also attended, displaying considerable interest in the discussion between Pierrakakis and one of the world’s most influential and recognizable political thinkers.

METKA’s Ticket Back to the Stock Market

METKA has paid €83 million to its parent company from retained earnings accumulated in previous financial years, following a decision by an extraordinary general meeting.

The move comes two weeks after Metlen announced that it was considering listing its subsidiary on the Main Market of Euronext Athens.

The transaction can be interpreted simply: The company is cleaning up its balance sheet ahead of the investor roadshow.

According to information available to the column, the group’s management is targeting a market capitalization of €1.2 billion to €1.5 billion and proceeds of €250 million to €300 million, combining newly issued shares with an offering of existing shares if demand permits.

Preparations are accelerating, with announcements expected by the end of the month.

METKA ended 2025 with EBITDA of €100 million, up from €50 million in 2024. It generated €82 million in the first half of this year alone and is targeting €140 million to €150 million for 2026.

The company has net cash of approximately €160 million and an order backlog exceeding €2.2 billion.

At a hypothetical valuation of €1.2 billion to €1.5 billion, the group would be seeking a multiple of roughly seven to nine times this year’s EBITDA. Citi values Metlen itself at 7.5 times EBITDA.

That means an offering of €250 million to €300 million would represent a free float of approximately 20%.

Metlen would retain majority ownership, as promised, while a sale of existing shares could provide the group with a second financial boost this year.

METKA was delisted from the Athens Stock Exchange in 2017 as a construction company. It is now preparing to return as an infrastructure and concessions group, giving Metlen greater scope to expand internationally.

From Amsterdam to an Aluminum Can in Komotini: A €65 Million Journey

It has now been officially announced that the Amsterdam District Court awarded €111 million to the Macedonian Thrace Brewery over exclusivity practices employed by Athenian Brewery for 16 years, beginning in 1998, just months after the launch of Vergina beer.

Heineken’s arguments have now been rejected in nine judicial forums across three jurisdictions: Athens, Amsterdam and Luxembourg.

Dimitris Politopoulos, co-founder and CEO of Macedonian Thrace Brewery, estimates that approximately €65 million of the €111 million award will remain with the company after legal expenses, taxes, stamp duties and other costs.

He has already drawn up plans for the money.

Heineken, for its part, intends to appeal the ruling, challenging the Oxera model used to estimate the sales Vergina would have achieved in the absence of the exclusivity clauses.

If Macedonian Thrace Brewery ultimately collects the damages, it plans to use the money to accelerate construction of Greece’s first entirely Greek-owned aluminum beverage can production facility, using Greek raw materials.

The plant will be built in Komotini, next to the brewery, and has been designed to operate in conjunction with the deposit return system, or DRS.

The aluminum cans that Greece’s brewing and soft drinks industries currently import would then be manufactured and recycled in Thrace, creating jobs in a region that needs them and marking another step toward vertical integration for the company that established Greece’s first contract barley farming program.

The European legal precedent may be the biggest victory of all.

The principle that a parent company holding a 98.8% stake and its subsidiary constitute a single economic entity sends a powerful message to smaller producers across the European Union: They can pursue legal action against a corporate group in its home jurisdiction for practices carried out by its subsidiary in their own market.

A case involving Heineken and Brau Union over practices bearing many similarities is already pending in Vienna.

Greece’s Competition Commission is also conducting a fresh investigation into the domestic beer market for the period after 2015.

In early November, Macedonian Thrace Brewery plans to invite Greek craft brewers and smaller producers to Athens to explain what this landmark court ruling could mean for them.

Natech’s Ambitions

In a somewhat overblown press release, Natech Banking Solutions announced, in almost triumphant language, that it was entering the US market, establishing Natech USA in New York and expanding into a market of more than 8,000 banks and credit unions.

It has also appointed a sales executive.

But I wonder: If Natech has such ambitious growth plans, why didn’t it contribute a few million euros to Snappi’s capital increase, instead leaving Piraeus Bank to cover its share and increase its ownership stake to 68%?

Was it saving its money for the US expansion?

Refining Margins Fall Sharply

A Goldman Sachs analysis of the oil market, focusing on elevated freight costs, highlights the sharp compression of net refining margins, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Refineries are facing higher costs to secure crude oil deliveries, and they are finding it difficult to pass those additional expenses on to consumers.

Stock Market: Shipping Shares Exempt From Sales Tax

Transactions involving shares in shipping companies meeting specific eligibility requirements have been exempt from the 0.10% stock sales tax since yesterday.

The exemption covers Greek and foreign shipowning companies operating vessels under either Greek or foreign flags, as well as shipping holding companies.

The relevant provision issued by the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE) applies to sales of shares listed on Euronext Athens, regardless of whether settlement takes place through or outside the Central Securities Depository.

The provision does not specify a tax refund procedure for transactions completed before it took effect.

This is welcome news for the companies, as it reduces transaction costs, but it also creates a headache for brokerage firms, which must adapt their systems to issue the relevant transaction statements correctly.

Greek Banks: Dividends Without a Supervisor and Valuations Without a Discount

With a letter to the Bank of Greece and the management teams of the country’s four systemic banks, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) has closed the final outstanding chapter of the bailout era.

From January 1, 2027, Greece’s systemic banks will independently determine the size of their cash distributions through their general meetings, without the special supervisory scrutiny of distributions that has applied since the SSM was established in 2014.

Official confirmation will come with the results of the Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP), but the substance of the decision has already been communicated.

In 2024, the first dividend distributions in 16 years were approved.

Those payments totaled €875 million from 2023 earnings, with payout ratios ranging from 10% to 25%, while the supervisor took into account that deferred tax assets represented 40% of the banks’ capital.

In 2025, the banking sector reported net profits of €5.5 billion.

This year, five banking groups are distributing interim payments totaling €729.2 million before the financial year has even ended.

For 2027, the market expects distributions exceeding 60% of 2026 earnings.

The next issue Greek bankers are pursuing, a reduction in Pillar 2 capital requirements, remains unresolved.

Claudia Buch has warned of the risks associated with lower capital requirements.

For the international asset managers who listened to Greek banking executives in London in September, however, the difference is now significant.

A Greek bank will be assessed and valued using the same criteria as a Spanish or Italian bank, without the Greek discount stemming from supervisory uncertainty over dividends.

Athens Has Become a Vibrant Capital Market

Within 10 days, one order book has closed, another is opening and two more are being prepared.

Capital Maritime Finance rang the stock exchange bell on Monday.

GEK TERNA launched a roadshow the same day with BNP Paribas, J.P. Morgan and Mediobanca for its first international bond issue: a €500 million, seven-year, senior unsecured bond rated BBB-/Baa3, to be listed in Luxembourg.

Details are expected to be announced today, despite the turmoil in bond markets.

METKA is already preparing for its Athens stock market listing, while TITAN is reportedly working on its own bond issue.

In the first half of the year, Euronext Athens recorded €6.1 billion raised through the market, including €5.4 billion from capital increases and €750 million from bonds.

Market capitalization reached €182.5 billion, its highest level since 2007, while average daily trading value climbed to €344 million, the highest since 2008.

Since then, the market has seen AKTOR’s €650 million capital increase, with international investors accounting for 89.6% of participation, as well as its €300 million bond issue.

Star Bulk completed a parallel listing that was six times oversubscribed, while Piraeus issued a €500 million senior preferred bond at the tightest spread in its history.

With the completion of GEK TERNA’s bond issue and METKA’s listing, total capital raised this year is expected to exceed €8.5 billion, a level the market has not seen since 2007.

There are also important qualitative developments.

GEK TERNA is not targeting Greek retail investors with €1,000 bonds. It is addressing international institutional investors through a European Medium-Term Note program of up to €1 billion.

Shipping companies are also increasing their presence on the market.

The Greek capital market is no longer simply recycling the same pool of domestic capital. It is attracting new money.

Qualco Establishes a New Company

Qualco, headed by Orestis Tsakalotos, established a new company yesterday under the name Q-Rate S.A., headquartered at Qualco’s offices on Kifisias Avenue in Marousi.

The company’s stated purpose is to provide combined office administrative services and business process management services.

Its initial share capital amounts to €50,000, divided into 50,000 shares with a nominal value of €1 each.

The entire amount has been contributed by Qualco Single-Member Information Systems S.A., which is the sole shareholder.

The first board of directors consists of Orestis Tsakalotos as chairman, Christos Kalogerakis as CEO, and Efthymios Bouloutas and Kyriakos Foinikopoulos as board members.

###oundreas: Tanker Bought for $40.4 Million Sold a Year Later for $97.5 Million

NGM Energy, controlled by the Moundreas family, has been linked to the sale of the 16-year-old Suezmax tanker Advantage Summer for $97.5 million.

What makes the transaction remarkable is that the same vessel was purchased in November 2025 for just $40.4 million.

In less than a year, the difference between the purchase and sale prices reached $57.1 million.

That represents a transaction-based capital gain, although not necessarily an equivalent net profit.

Nevertheless, the underlying point remains.

In a market where secondhand tanker values have soared, the family appears to have chosen the right moment to cash in.

The buyer, after all, is paying almost $100 million for a vessel approaching 17 years of age, presumably betting that the market’s exceptionally high returns will continue.

The real question, then, is who will manage to sell before the winds change.

And for now, the Moundreas family appears to know how to read the weather.

Oil Giants Move Into Shipowners’ Territory — What Greek Shipping Magnates Are Watching

Something is changing quietly but fundamentally in global shipping.

Greek shipowners understand the tanker market better than most, which is why they are watching developments particularly closely.

The issue is no longer simply how high freight rates can climb, but who will control the vessels transporting oil in the future.

With daily earnings for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on the Middle East-China route having reached as much as $1.478 million, energy giants are beginning to rewrite the rules.

Indian companies such as Reliance, Indian Oil and other major refiners are seeking greater control over their transportation operations.

Trafigura has gone a step further by establishing Volare Shipping, with six VLCCs in operation and another eight under construction.

The message is clear: Major oil buyers no longer want to depend entirely on the fluctuations of the freight market. They want guaranteed access to vessels.

For Greek shipowners, the development can be interpreted in two ways.

In the short term, it creates opportunities for lucrative long-term charter agreements.

Over the longer term, however, it introduces a different kind of competition, as their own customers gain greater control over shipping capacity.

As you can imagine, when the customer also becomes a shipowner, the balance of power begins to shift.

Not necessarily overnight, but certainly over time.

Among shipping industry insiders, the increasingly important question is not simply who will profit from today’s astronomical freight rates.

It is who will retain negotiating power when the market returns to more normal conditions.

Martinos, Shipping Emails and the Battle for Shipowners’ Digital Offices

In shipping, we are accustomed to measuring power in vessels, millions of tons and billions of dollars.

But Ioannis Martinos appears to be investing in something less spectacular, though potentially just as valuable: the digital office of shipowners.

Signal Ocean’s recent acquisition of Lgmar, the Greek company behind Telix, contains a detail worth examining.

Telix has been part of the shipping industry’s daily operations for 37 years. It operates in the environment where offers are exchanged, freight rates are negotiated and multimillion-dollar deals are concluded.

And consider the sequence of events.

Earlier in 2026, Signal Ocean acquired AXSMarine and Alphaliner, strengthening its position in maritime intelligence.

Now, it is expanding into communications.

Put simply, the company is moving beyond information about market conditions and into the very environment where commercial decisions are made.

If data, artificial intelligence-powered analytics and everyday business correspondence can be effectively integrated, Signal could establish a much stronger position within shipping companies’ commercial operations.

What makes this particularly interesting is that while many Greek shipowners are investing billions in new vessels, Martinos is simultaneously building a different kind of power infrastructure.

Northern Greek Businesses Launch a Balkan Offensive

Greece’s Deputy Ministry of Macedonia and Thrace organized a multiday business mission, ending in Podgorica, that brought together a broad cross-section of Northern Greece’s business community.

Between 80 and 120 participants took part at each destination: Sofia, Belgrade, Bucharest, Tirana and Podgorica.

The delegation included the Greek Exporters Association (SEVE), the Federation of Industries of Greece (SVE), chambers of commerce, Enterprise Greece, five universities from Macedonia and Thrace, and the three regional administrations.

Businesses had plenty of opportunities to pursue.

ISOMAT and DIOPAS already sell their products north of the Greek border, while HELLENiQ ENERGY operates fuel stations throughout the Balkan Peninsula.

Perhaps the most significant aspect was the participation of the three ports of Thessaloniki, Kavala and Alexandroupolis.

All three are competing for the same strategic role: becoming the maritime gateway for the Balkan hinterland.

Having the Thessaloniki and Alexandroupolis port authorities on the same bus is, in itself, a major diplomatic achievement.

Greek exports to Romania increased 20.6% in the first half of the year, reaching €1.19 billion, despite the Romanian economy facing a crisis and slowing growth.

Exports to Bulgaria reached €3.15 billion in 2025, an increase of 11.4%.

In total, more than 370 Greek and foreign businesses participated in meetings during the first three missions, producing memoranda of understanding and the first business partnerships.

The business-to-business meetings in Tirana and Podgorica were significant in their own right.

Deutsche Bank CEO’s Wake-Up Call Reaches Athens

Christian Sewing, the head of Deutsche Bank, is not known for dramatic statements.

But yesterday, speaking to Bloomberg TV, he made his position clear.

France is “not yet a debt crisis,” he said, but rather a “wake-up call” for public finances across Europe.

He warned that market volatility would affect the whole of Europe and persist at least until April’s presidential election.

Sewing was speaking as the yield on France’s 10-year government bond climbed to 5% for the first time since July 2002, a 24-year high, while its spread over the German equivalent reached 156 basis points, the highest since 2011.

The German Bund yield stood at 3.44%.

France borrowed at 3.86% for the same 10-year maturity in its August auction, compared with 4.93% in October.

The past quarter was the worst for French government bonds since 1987.

France is the only G7 economy with a debt-to-GDP ratio above its pandemic-era level, with total public debt reaching €3.6 trillion.

The 2027 budget includes €43 billion in measures aimed at containing the deficit to 5% of GDP. Without its adoption, the deficit could reach 6.5%.

The National Assembly last week rejected even a freeze on the inflation-linked adjustment of pensions.

Tomorrow, Moody’s could deliver another devastating blow.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has made it clear that there can be no safety net for France without corrective measures.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he does not expect contagion.

Fitch, meanwhile, is urging calm, arguing that this is a fiscal problem rather than a financing crisis.

Athens currently borrows for 10 years at 4.4%, compared with 4.9% for Paris.

What is particularly interesting is that Greece’s own spread has widened from 70 basis points in early September to 98 basis points today.

In other words, the French crisis has already cost Greece approximately 30 basis points, even though nothing has changed in the underlying Greek economic picture.

French government bonds, known as OATs (Obligations Assimilables du Trésor), underpin roughly one-tenth of Europe’s repo market.

When French bonds come under pressure, the consequences are felt across Europe’s periphery.

In 2011, Greece threatened the eurozone with financial contagion.

In 2026, France is the problem, while Greece has become somewhere investors can seek temporary shelter — until they remember that the periphery remains the periphery, even when the crisis originates at the center.

UBS Searches for the Switch That Could Restart the Market

UBS’s weekly strategy report, authored by Keith Parker, Gerry Fowler and Bhanu Baweja, opens with an admission that is rarely stated so plainly.

The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio has fallen approximately 20% since November, a decline comparable to that of 1994.

Corrections of this magnitude are normally associated with recessions.

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has increased by approximately 100 basis points since the beginning of the year, reaching 5.1%.

According to UBS, the market has already paid the price for higher interest rates.

The question now is what will trigger a recovery.

The analysts identify two particularly visible casualties: French sovereign bond spreads and CoreWeave shares, whose credit default swap spreads have reached approximately 1,100 basis points.

Last week, the 100 stocks most directly associated with artificial intelligence lost 5%, while the remaining 400 stocks in the S&P 500 gained 2.5%.

Wall Street is trying to distinguish between companies carrying significant debt burdens and those that are not.

There is, however, one figure that keeps UBS optimistic.

So-called neocloud providers — cloud computing companies that primarily rent out GPU processing capacity for artificial intelligence — are expected to account for just 7% of AI investment in 2027, representing approximately $130 billion.

The four major hyperscalers have zero or negative net debt and combined borrowing capacity of $2.5 trillion.

UBS recommends reducing exposure to the energy sector, which has risen 50% this year, selling consumer staples stocks trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times, and buying utilities, which trade at 15 times earnings, a decade-low valuation.

The bank also favors S&P 500 stocks over the FTSE and South Korea over India.

When the market’s price-to-earnings ratio has already fallen 20%, investors do not necessarily need good news.

They simply need the bad news to stop coming.