Two snapshots of Greece’s political landscape, three advantages for the ruling New Democracy (ND) party and one difficult puzzle for the government at Maximos Mansion. The latest polls by Metron Analysis and Pulse do more than highlight the governing party’s resilience at 30%.

They also reveal three politically significant findings: the government’s fuel measures are broadly regarded as a step in the right direction, even by opposition supporters; voters are more motivated by prospects for the future than by a desire to punish those in power; and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis maintains a commanding lead over his rivals when it comes to suitability for the country’s top political office.

Yet the question of whether ND can secure another outright parliamentary majority remains unresolved. Persistently high living costs continue to squeeze household budgets, while dissatisfaction with the government’s performance remains widespread.

Meanwhile, former prime minister Alexis Tsipras appears to be losing some momentum, PASOK is narrowing the gap to second place, and its leader, Nikos Androulakis, continues to lag significantly behind his main rival in ratings of suitability for prime minister.

A surprising response from PASOK voters

The first significant finding comes from the Pulse poll, which shows that 51% of respondents believe the government’s fuel measures are moving in the right direction.

Only 10%, however, consider them sufficient, while 41% believe further intervention is needed.

The surprise lies in how support is distributed across party lines. Among PASOK voters, 55% acknowledge that the measures are heading in the right direction, although 49% still call for additional assistance.

Approval rises to 93% among ND supporters but falls to just 23% among voters backing Tsipras’s EL.A.S. party.

For Maximos Mansion, the findings offer a political advantage, but certainly not a blank cheque. The government’s approach has found support beyond ND’s electoral base, yet demands for more substantial relief remain strong.

The second important finding concerns what will motivate voters at the next election. A majority of 53% say they will cast their ballot primarily with an eye to the future, compared with just 10% who cite anger and a desire to punish the government.

Even more revealing are the responses of voters who have drifted away from ND. Among these former supporters, 49% identify future prospects as their main consideration, while 16% favour a protest vote.

This represents a pool of voters whose return to the governing party is far from guaranteed, but who are not overwhelmingly motivated by a desire for political retribution.

The finding does not automatically benefit ND. It does, however, underline the importance of the competing parties’ proposals for the country’s future.

The battle between the leading contenders

The government’s third advantage concerns the question of who is best suited to serve as prime minister.

Mitsotakis receives 28% in the Metron Analysis survey and 29% in the Pulse poll, compared with 12% and 16%, respectively, for Tsipras.

What makes this lead particularly noteworthy is that it coexists with widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s record.

According to Metron Analysis, 67% of respondents assess the government’s performance negatively, while 65% believe Greece is heading in the wrong direction.

There are, nevertheless, some modest signs of improvement.

The proportion of people who believe the country is on the wrong track has fallen from 69% in May, while the share reporting that their personal circumstances are better than a year ago has risen from 13% to 15%.

The economy and the cost of living remain the dominant electoral concerns, identified by 50% of respondents in the Pulse poll. This is where the government’s most difficult political test lies.

ND stands at 30% in the estimated vote share in both surveys, leading by 15 percentage points in Metron Analysis and 13.5 points in Pulse.

Its electoral advantage is substantial, but not sufficient to resolve the question of an outright parliamentary majority.

The Pulse survey finds that 43% of respondents would prefer a single-party majority government, compared with 36% who favour coalition arrangements.

Support for single-party government reaches 76% among centre-right voters and 56% among centrists, although overall backing for this option has declined by two percentage points since September.

An outright majority therefore remains an attractive model of government for many voters, but a distant electoral objective for ND at its current polling levels.

The possibility of a parliament containing as many as 10 parties further complicates the calculations, with several political formations hovering around the 3% electoral threshold.

The centre-left contest intensifies

Within the opposition, the battle for second place is becoming increasingly competitive.

In the Metron Analysis poll, Tsipras’s EL.A.S. party slips from 15.8% to 15%, while PASOK rises from 12.6% to 13%, narrowing the gap to two percentage points.

Pulse records a similar pattern, with Tsipras’s party declining from 17% to 16.5% and PASOK climbing from 12% to 13%. The difference between the two consequently falls from five to 3.5 percentage points.

Although these changes are relatively small, both surveys point to a narrowing gap.

Pulse also finds that PASOK leads when voters are asked which party provides the most effective opposition, receiving 15.5% compared with 9.5% for EL.A.S.

This creates a political paradox for PASOK’s leadership.

While the party is gradually closing in on Tsipras’s formation in voting intentions, its leader Nikos Androulakis remains far behind the former prime minister in perceived suitability for the premiership.

In the Metron Analysis survey, Androulakis scores just 6%, compared with Tsipras’s 12%. In Pulse, the corresponding figures are 8% and 16%.

In both cases, Androulakis attracts only half the support recorded by his principal centre-left rival.

Samaras struggles to attract New Democracy voters

The potential electoral appeal of a new party led by former prime minister Antonis Samaras remains limited.

According to Metron Analysis, 5% of respondents say they would be very likely to vote for such a party, unchanged from the previous survey.

Pulse records a slight decline in those saying they would definitely back a Samaras-led party, from 6% to 5%, while 63% rule out voting for it altogether.

The distinction becomes particularly revealing when examining ND’s own electoral base.

Just 2% of respondents currently intending to vote for the governing party say they would definitely support a political formation led by Samaras.

The figure rises to 14% among voters who have moved away from ND.

These numbers reflect potential willingness to vote for such a party, rather than a forecast of its actual electoral performance.

They nevertheless suggest that Samaras’s strongest potential appeal lies among disaffected former ND voters rather than those who continue to support Mitsotakis.

For the government, the overall picture is one of continued electoral dominance, considerable personal advantage for the prime minister and some encouraging signs of broader acceptance of its policies.

The central challenge, however, remains unchanged: turning a comfortable lead in the polls into sufficient parliamentary support for another outright majority, against a backdrop of persistent economic concerns and widespread public dissatisfaction.