Hello there. Now, I’m not a fan of extreme language, but in Trump’s case, everything Theodora Tzakri has said from time to time about Tsipras applies: “We’re screwed” or “We’ve been completely screwed,” what can you do? The truth is that the results of yesterday’s elections in the United States were probably not quite what was expected in terms of the scale of Trump’s crushing defeat, at least not to the extent that it actually happened. It was almost certain that both chambers of Congress would be lost, but not with such enormous margins, particularly in the House. Even less expected was the reaction of the markets, which practically threw a party both inside and outside America, across the board. The explanation being offered internationally is not that investors prefer the Democrats (which Democrats, anyway, since we don’t even know who their leadership candidate will be?). Nor is it simply that Trump is losing ground, because they know perfectly well that the Constitution gives the President extensive powers and that he can still govern. But they also know that, following the political slap in the face he has received and the loss of both chambers, Trump will have to rein himself in when it comes to legislation and will no longer be able to do whatever he likes. And, of course, at the back of their minds is the thought that this is the beginning of the end.

Vance’s awkward trip to Athens

A few weeks ago, I wrote that US Vice President Vance was expected to travel to Athens in February. Today I can be more specific and tell you that his arrival is scheduled for after mid-February, following the Munich Security Conference. However, given that Vance is closely associated with Trump, who has suffered a devastating political defeat, and is in some respects even more hardline than him, while also having a very poor relationship with Israel, many are wondering who will want to meet the Vice President during his stay in Athens, apart from his appearance at the conference being organised here by the conservative media outlet Breitbart. Vance himself will certainly want to come, of course, in an attempt to repair his relations with Europe, which deteriorated from the very moment he took office and launched a foul-mouthed tirade against the Europeans in Munich in February 2025.

An embassy without an ambassador?

Meanwhile, for weeks now, the US Embassy here in Athens has been without an ambassador and has been operating under its former number two, Josh Huck. The shift in the balance of power in Congress is unlikely to allow Trump and the State Department to appoint an ambassador of their choosing over the coming months without strong objections from the Democrats, who will control the key committees, unless, of course, they put forward someone of recognised stature and bipartisan acceptance, which would still not be easy. Consequently, the chances are increasing that the embassy in Athens, like several other US embassies in strategically important countries, will operate for a prolonged period without an ambassador at its head.

Insults and old scores

There is something interesting, and perhaps amusing — up to a point — about the exchange that has developed between the government, Mitsotakis himself and Tsipras, and vice versa, over old scores. Tsipras called K.M. the “high priest of corruption,” Mitsotakis was furious and responded by bringing up the 2019 criminal codes, and Tsipras fired back: “You tell us which banker you saved with the banking immunity law” that same summer of 2019, when Tsipras had already lost power and Mitsotakis had become prime minister. To be fair, it’s not that these things aren’t true, but remembering them seven years later is probably a little late. One observation, though: the tone of the statements, with references to “barking,” “shut your mouth” and so on, my dear Alexis, is not appropriate language. You’re neither a Golden Dawn thug nor little Zoe. You can’t go for coffee in our neighbourhood, sit in the good season-ticket seats at Panatha, spend a few days in Sounio and still have a mouth like that. Oh mon Dieu.

Champions League (second half)

Today, the improved bids from Alafouzos (Sport FM) and Per Capita (the television channel owners) will be submitted for the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League package. The truth is that whoever wins it will have a football extravaganza on their hands for three days — Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. But this extravaganza is apparently turning into real gold for UEFA, which has caught the scent of… propellers and oil and is poised to make the biggest killing in its history, proportionate to the country and its size. If both bidders go all out today, we will be talking about sums approaching €300 million (no, you did not read that wrong) from each player for the next four years. The money is there, but we’ll see whether it actually gets paid in the end. We’ll know in a few hours.

The stroll through Kalamata and the MP’s barbs

As I wrote a few days ago, Mitsotakis is heading to Kalamata today, where he will take a stroll through the city and inspect a series of projects underway in the prefecture of Messinia. The most interesting part, of course, will be the walkabout, where he will also gauge the mood in what is objectively a difficult region, Samaras’s political stronghold. Interestingly, a day before Mitsotakis’s visit, ND MP (still) Miltos Chrysomallis, whom everyone expects to follow Samaras, took aim at the Ministry of Environment, submitting a parliamentary question to Papastavrou over the fact that the Kalamata Planning Department has been waiting for months for an answer from the ministry on a crucial building regulation issue, resulting in construction work being frozen in the municipality of Western Mani.

The Commissioner’s meetings in Athens

We have European arrivals in our neck of the woods today, as Dutch Commissioner for Environment and Energy Wopke Hoekstra is coming for a two-day programme, with Stavros Papastavrou accompanying him closely. Apart from his meeting with the Environment and Energy Minister, the Commissioner will brief three parliamentary committees in the Senate Chamber of Parliament on Thursday. The Greek government’s cooperation with the Commissioner in countering Turkey’s attempt to exclude the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Nikos Christodoulides, from COP31, which is due to take place in Antalya in the coming days, has not gone unnoticed. That manoeuvre ultimately failed. Hoekstra will also meet Mitsotakis on Friday.

The shipowners’ €250 million and the faces at the Pentagon

Quite a crowd gathered yesterday afternoon at the Ministry of Defence for the unveiling of the Pentagon’s new façade, designed by Kostas Varotsos and financed with €10 million from Piraeus Bank. At a glance, my man spotted around 80 ministers, deputy ministers and MPs attending the event, even though there had been no particularly major mobilisation beforehand. The most interesting development, however, beyond the refurbishment of the building, was Dendias’s request — and invitation — to the country’s shipowners to make donations totalling €250 million to cover the Navy’s operational needs. The relevant letter has already been sent to the Union of Greek Shipowners.

Bad news: Airlines cut flights to Greece by 2.4%

What the tourism market had feared — but which had not materialised until now — appears to have arrived this winter, with airlines signalling what lies ahead for the next season amid the Middle East crisis and extremely steep fuel prices. This is the first time in recent years that airlines have reduced their planned capacity for Greece, even if the reduction concerns the already quiet winter season, given the highly seasonal nature of Greek tourism. And because airlines know a thing or two about future demand, this year’s reduction in available airline seats on inbound international flights for the period from November 2026 to the end of March 2027 amounts to 2.4% compared with the corresponding period last year, bringing the total to 6.05 million available seats. The figures come from international aviation data organisation OAG for Greece, as processed by the research institute of the Greek Tourism Confederation (INSETE). Last year, the column recalls, at this point in the season — and, of course, before the Middle East crisis — the corresponding scheduling pointed to a double-digit annual increase of 11.8%. The major difference has to do with aviation fuel prices, in addition, of course, to another very important factor this year: the significant pressure on Europeans’ incomes. Indicative are Eurostat’s figures for October inflation in the eurozone, which reached its highest level in three years, at 4%. As for the average price of aviation fuel in the European market, it closed October at $4.84 per gallon, having more than doubled, recording a 114% increase compared with the average of $2.26 per gallon in January–February.

HELLENiQ ENERGY: Sharp decline in refining margins

October brought a sharp decline in Mediterranean refining margins, despite a further rise in Brent crude to $108.3 per barrel, up 6.2% compared with September and 69.4% year-on-year. The Aspropyrgos cracking margin fell to $10.3 per barrel from $26.2 in September, recording a 60.8% month-on-month decline, but remaining marginally higher by 0.7% on an annual basis. The deterioration was greater in Thessaloniki’s hydroskimming margin, which moved into negative territory at -$0.5 per barrel, compared with $17.0 the previous month and $9.3 in October 2025, highlighting the greater sensitivity of simpler refineries when crude oil costs rise faster than final product prices. By contrast, Elefsina’s hydrocracking margin, although down 45.2% month-on-month, remained at a particularly satisfactory level of $19.3 per barrel, almost double the $9.7 recorded in October 2025, confirming the advantage offered by the unit’s greater complexity.

The polypropylene margin narrowed to $156 per tonne from $223 in September, but remained 282% higher than in last year’s very poor period, while the decline in EUR/USD to 1.120 from 1.151 is positive for the conversion of dollar-denominated profits into euros.

Despite October’s weaker performance, the overall trend for 2026 remains very strong. Over the first ten months, the average cracking margin stood at $16.1 per barrel, up 121%; hydroskimming reached $10.2, up 47%; and hydrocracking stood at $21.1, an increase of 278%. Meanwhile, the average polypropylene margin reached $319 per tonne, up 59%.

The peak of the year came in Q3 2026, when cracking averaged $28.4 per barrel, hydroskimming $22.8 and hydrocracking $37.4, recording increases of 173%, 506% and 194%, respectively, compared with Q2 2026.

October does not overturn the year’s positive picture, but it demonstrates that the exceptional margins recorded in Q3 2026 are not sustainable and limits expectations of similarly strong profitability in Q4 2026.

For HELLENiQ ENERGY, the strong levels recorded over the ten-month period point to a particularly high annual contribution from refining, with Elefsina retaining a clear advantage. For Motor Oil, the figures offer a positive read-across for the sector, without, however, constituting an accurate forecast of the company’s own margins because of differences in crude oil mix, products and commercial performance.

A €1.6 billion shower of interim dividends in four months from listed companies

The distribution of an interim dividend is not based on forecasts. It is an accounting fact. For a board of directors to approve it, it must have audited nine-month financial statements showing profits and liquidity sufficient to cover the payment. That is why this year’s “shower” of interim dividends from September to December already exceeds €1.6 billion in total and, apart from setting a record for Euronext Athens, is also being interpreted as the first, silent announcement of third-quarter results.

Obviously, the largest share comes from the banks: approximately €700 million in six weeks. Eurobank is paying €214 million (€0.0599 per share) from November 26, having actually brought the payment forward from December 11. Alpha Bank will pay €124.2 million (€0.0553 per share) from December 4, and Piraeus Bank €124 million (€0.10 per share) between December 21 and 28. National Bank announced its results and interim dividend yesterday, with an ex-dividend date of November 16 and payment starting November 20.

Outside the banking sector, the most telling signal came from Motor Oil. It announced an interim dividend of €0.55 per share (ex-dividend date December 21, payment December 29), compared with €0.35 last year, an increase of 57%. It will distribute approximately €61 million, compared with €38.7 million last year. A refinery that raises its interim dividend by more than half in a year of expensive crude oil and a closed Strait of Hormuz is saying something about third-quarter refining margins before the company itself says it.

Last year, all listed companies distributed a total of €6 billion in cash, a historic high stemming from the record profits of 2024. This year, the final four months alone account for more than €1.6 billion, and the banks have already recognised distributions equivalent to 55% of their profits for the full financial year.

Third-quarter results will be announced over the coming weeks. But the management teams of listed companies have already read them and announced Christmas presents for shareholders.

The Greek stocks that benefited from the US “blue wave”

Banks emerged as the biggest beneficiaries of the stock market reaction triggered by the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the US midterm elections. In yesterday’s session, the banking index gained almost 3%, with Alpha Bank and National Bank leading the way, posting gains of 5% and 4.5%, respectively. Strong buying interest was also seen in Piraeus and Eurobank.

The reaction is linked to expectations that Democratic control of Congress will limit the Trump administration’s fiscal interventions, keeping bond yields in check and reducing political uncertainty.

Potential beneficiaries also include green energy companies, as international analyses indicate renewed investor interest in renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, GEK TERNA and Coca-Cola HBC also stood out on the trading board yesterday, although their gains cannot be attributed exclusively to the election result.

Maris’s Family Office

Well-known businessman Dimitris Maris has moved ahead with the establishment of his own Family Office. According to the column’s information, MDKS Family Office S.A. was incorporated the day before yesterday, Tuesday, November 3, and its registered office is located on Vasilissis Sofias Avenue.

The company’s exclusive purpose, according to Article 71H of Law 4172/2013, is “the administration and management of assets and investments held either directly or indirectly, through legal persons or legal entities, by the founding shareholder and members of his family within the meaning of the above article, as well as the management of their expenses to cover their needs, the costs of their general living expenses and their philanthropic and cultural activities.”

The company’s initial share capital was set at €1 million, divided into 10,000 registered shares with a nominal value of €100 each. According to the articles of association, the share capital will be fully paid in cash by the sole founder-shareholder, Dimitris Maris.

Maris himself serves as chairman of the board of MDKS Family Office, with Polytimi Dalamaga as vice-chairwoman and Loukas Karetzopoulos as a board member.

Vassilakis’s Square View

Another move by Eftichios Vassilakis on the real estate chessboard. Specifically, Square View S.A. was incorporated yesterday, with its registered office at the familiar “headquarters” of the Vassilakis family group (Aegean, AutoHellas and others) on Viltanioti Street in Kifissia.

The company’s purpose is the leasing and management of real estate, while its initial share capital amounts to €1.5 million, divided into an equal number of shares with a nominal value of €1 each.

These were paid for by Felix Holdings Sarl, based in Luxembourg and reportedly controlled by Eftichios Vassilakis. Georgios Koutsoukos has taken over the management and representation of the company.

The fund that grew 87-fold

Public-sector employees have discovered the value of Occupational Pension Funds. The assets of the Pension Branch of the Ministry of Finance Occupational Pension Fund (TEA-YpOIK) have increased from €126,000 in 2019 to more than €11 million by the end of 2026. Assets that, by December, will have multiplied almost 87 times in seven years.

Over the same period, TEA-YpOIK surpassed 16,000 insured members, with its latest board meeting approving the registration of 818 new members in a single month. This is a record monthly inflow across its two benefit branches, Health and Pension.

TEA-YpOIK began as an Occupational Pension Fund exclusively for employees of the Ministry of Finance and the Independent Authority for Public Revenue (AADE). Today, it has added 24 other bodies from the central and broader public sector to its membership register.

The Health Branch has covered more than 7,000 hospitalisation cases, with compensation exceeding €7.1 million, or approximately €1,000 per case. This explains why the fund “sells” health first and pensions second.

The next step is institutional. Kerameos’s new occupational pension framework introduces “open occupational pension funds,” meaning funds that businesses, self-employed professionals and employees can join without being restricted to a particular sector or employer, with full deductibility of contributions (a limit of €35,000 for the self-employed and 35% of income for employees) and full portability of rights.

According to information, TEA-YpOIK’s management is considering transforming the fund into an “Open Occupational Pension Fund,” allowing private-sector organisations to register as members.

If this happens, it will be the first time that a fund born within the public sector directly competes in the second pension pillar. With 818 new registrations a month, TEA-YpOIK is beginning to attract attention.

MSC, Maersk and the other shipping giants return to Piraeus via Suez

After months of disruption to shipping routes because of the Red Sea crisis, the largest container shipping companies are beginning to put Piraeus back on the map of Asia–Mediterranean connections via Suez. COSCO SHIPPING — yes, you read that correctly — MSC, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, OOCL and Evergreen are at the centre of this gradual return, which began in the summer and is now taking on a more tangible form at the Greek port.

In July, Maersk, in cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd through the Gemini Cooperation, began bringing ships back into the Red Sea. MSC followed in August, with eleven services representing a total capacity of almost 2.2 million TEU. CMA CGM had never completely suspended transits, while COSCO SHIPPING and OOCL had restored six Ocean Alliance services, an alliance that also includes Evergreen. The Premier Alliance also announced moves towards a return.

For Piraeus, October brought the first tangible signs. The “COSCO SHIPPING ROSE” passed through Suez on October 14 and arrived at the port on October 16. The “COSCO SPAIN” is scheduled to call on November 9.

A full return, however, still has no timetable. The companies are proceeding selectively, maintaining routes around Africa as well. The question for Piraeus is whether this return will become permanent and bring more frequent port calls.

Who will foot the shipbuilding bill?

The global record of $700 billion in ship orders is of particular interest to Greek-owned shipping. Greek shipowners rank second worldwide in new orders, confirming that they continue to invest heavily despite high shipbuilding costs and uncertainty over the direction of freight markets in the coming years.

There is, however, another reading of the figures that deserves attention. The global orderbook has reached 226.1 million gross tons, surpassing even the historic high of 2008. This means that substantial new capacity will be added to the global fleet over the coming years, with the effects varying depending on the type of vessel.

In the Greek shipping market, attention is now focused not only on who is ordering the most ships, but also on who has planned their commercial deployment most effectively. Long-term charters, financing costs and delivery times are becoming particularly important, as no one can take it for granted that current freight rates will remain at the same levels.

The crucial question is whether demand for maritime transport will be able to absorb the new capacity without putting pressure on freight rates. Because in shipping, the success of an investment is not determined on the day the order is signed at the shipyard, but in the years following the vessel’s delivery.

Greek shipowners show their hand in four markets

The activity of Greek shipowners in recent weeks has provided plenty of food for discussion. New orders, purchases of secondhand vessels and employment agreements show that investment continues, although not everyone is following the same strategy.

Venergy has reached an agreement for two large VLCC tankers at China’s Hengli shipyards, retaining options for two more.

In the dry bulk market, the Stefanou brothers strengthened their presence in larger vessels with the acquisition of a Capesize, following investments mainly in the Panamax and Kamsarmax categories.

Meanwhile, Capital Clean Energy Carriers announced six new employment agreements for gas carriers, linking the expansion of its fleet to future contracted revenues.

Also standing out in this investment wave are Lavinia Bulkers, with four Newcastlemax vessels worth approximately $312 million; EuroDry, which is expanding its Kamsarmax shipbuilding programme; and Almi Marine, with three Ultramax vessels valued at an estimated $108 million.

In containerships, Danaos is strengthening its shipbuilding programme with another two vessels, while in tankers, Latsco Shipping has agreed to acquire two Aframax vessels worth $154 million, with an option for two more.

Some are investing in larger vessels, others are expanding into different categories, and still others are prioritising the securing of multi-year charters. These are different strategies, with the common characteristic that they require substantial capital and decisions that will be tested over the long term.

A vote of confidence in Athens from Paul Hastings

One of the largest American law firms, Paul Hastings, yesterday announced the recruitment of Dr Orestis Omran as a Partner and Co-Chair of its Brussels office, based in Brussels and London. The new partner’s mission is to lead the firm’s expansion in Greece and Cyprus.

Omran joins from DLA Piper, where he co-led the Greece practice and was a partner in the energy department. He has advised states, public bodies, energy groups, banks and funds on major transactions in Greece and Southeastern Europe, while in 2024 he was a candidate for the European Parliament with New Democracy.

Paul Hastings strengthened its energy and infrastructure team in 2025 with hires in Abu Dhabi, London and Paris, while this year it added Salomé Cisnal de Ugarte (competition) in Brussels and two international arbitration partners in Paris.

Its chairman, Frank Lopez, described Brussels as “a key market for shaping European regulation” and energy/infrastructure as a “strategic priority.”

Major American firms do not recruit Greek partners with a mandate for Greece and Cyprus unless they see a flow of transactions, energy deals, interconnections, infrastructure projects and acquisitions sufficient to justify the investment.

No Athens office has been announced. But the clients are already here.

The dollar falls, gold rises

Gold returned above $4,000 an ounce, recording an intraday rise of as much as 2.6% to $4,040, its biggest since August, after earlier falling as low as $3,920. Silver gained 4.3% towards $52, while platinum and palladium followed.

The result of the midterm elections immediately pushed down the dollar’s exchange rate, and when the dollar weakens, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold falls, mechanically bringing demand back.

The question occupying analysts is whether the correction in gold prices, which brought the metal approximately 22% below its all-time record in October, has come to an end. At the same time, silver has lost almost half its value since its peak.

There, the picture is less clear. The data are mixed. Money markets are still pricing in a 77% probability of another interest rate increase by the Fed in December. Yesterday’s rise in gold prices lends support to the arguments against an increase in dollar interest rates.

The technical picture adds even more confusion. Michele Schneider of MarketGauge notes that gold’s status as a safe haven “has become blurred,” which is why a sustained recovery above $4,000 is needed to restore its credibility in this role.

A possible break below $3,940 would open the way towards $3,500.

Clearly, yesterday’s move in precious metals was a reaction to political developments that affected the dollar and bond yields. It was not driven by new capital inflows.

Moves based on a single day of currency-market turbulence are usually tested the following day.

Gold has shown that it remembers where $4,000 is. It remains to be seen whether it can stay there without the dollar having to remind it.

Washington votes against repealing the “millionaires’ tax”

The state of Washington is home to corporate giants such as Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing and Starbucks. It is one of the few American states without an income tax.

Voters had repeatedly rejected the idea of introducing a state income tax, most recently 16 years ago, in 2010.

In March 2026, the state legislature passed, and Governor Bob Ferguson signed, the first income tax. It imposes a 9.9% tax on household taxable income above $1 million, taking effect on January 1, 2028, with the first tax returns due in 2029 and expected revenues exceeding $11 billion over the first five years.

Revenue from this millionaires’ tax will go into the state’s general fund as well as a dedicated account for childcare and early childhood education.

Initiative I-645, which was put to a vote alongside the November 3 midterm elections, called for its repeal and an explicit prohibition on any income tax.

The arguments in favour of repeal were that the tax breaks an institutional taboo that citizens had defended repeatedly at the ballot box. It would encourage millionaires to move their economic activity to other states without income taxes. It would become a “Trojan horse” for expanding the tax base in future legislative sessions.

On the other hand, the arguments in favour of the millionaires’ tax — or, more precisely, against its repeal — were that the state was facing a multibillion-dollar deficit over the two-year period and that the alternative would be cuts to schools and healthcare.

The tax affects very few households and corrects one of the most regressive tax systems in the United States, which relies primarily on sales tax.

Washington also has property taxes, the Business & Occupation tax on turnover and, since 2021, a 7% capital gains tax.

For the first time since 1932, Washington voters said “YES” to an income tax by a majority of 58% to 42% (in reality, “NO” to its repeal).

The many voted for a tax that will be paid by the few, who have a lot of money.

Brazil pulls the plug on Flutter

Flutter is the world’s largest betting company (FanDuel, Paddy Power, Betfair, Sisal).

Yesterday, it announced a net loss of $1.148 billion for the third quarter, compared with $789 million last year, despite increased revenue of $3.87 billion (+2%) and adjusted EBITDA of $360 million (-25%).

Its problem is well known. An $873 million impairment charge ($541 million in goodwill and $296 million in fixed assets) in Brazil, where the government, through Provisional Measure 1,394 of September 25, banned, with immediate effect, all fixed-odds betting (sports and/or online casino), as well as its advertising.

Flutter immediately shut down its Brazilian operations, withdrew the Betfair brand and retained only Betnacional.

Everything else followed like dominoes. Net debt rose to $10.66 billion, leverage reached 4.6 times EBITDA (from 3.7 times in December), share buybacks were suspended “for the foreseeable future,” and the company cut its 2026 targets by $300 million in revenue and $160 million in EBITDA.

All of this now falls to a new CEO, Dan Taylor, who replaces Peter Jackson, to manage.

In Europe, Britain put the cherry on top of an already unpleasant cake by increasing the tax on online gaming from 21% to 40%.

Rafael Nadal joins the board of the world’s richest club

The world’s leading tennis player, Spain’s Rafael Nadal, confirmed that he had accepted Florentino Pérez’s invitation to join Real Madrid’s Board of Directors “with great enthusiasm, a willingness to learn and to contribute whatever I can.”

His appointment must be ratified by the General Assembly of members on November 21.

Real Madrid is not a company but a members’ club with 98,272 members (socios). At the same time, it is the richest sporting organisation on the planet, with revenue of €1.221 billion in the 2025–26 season (+3.1%, a record for a sporting organisation), EBITDA of €287.4 million (+18%), net profit of €26.3 million and net debt of just €9 million, excluding the Bernabéu project, which alone generated €363 million (+107% compared with 2018–19).

At last November’s General Assembly (2025), the 78-year-old Pérez raised the biggest issue in the club’s history.

He spoke about transferring its operations to a subsidiary in which outside investors would acquire a 5–10% stake, with members retaining “absolute control” and, for the first time, receiving dividends.

At a valuation of $6.75 billion (Forbes), a 5% stake is worth more than €300 million.

The reform requires an amendment to the club’s statutes by an extraordinary General Assembly and has divided the socios. “Selling out” for some, “common sense” for others.

In this environment, Pérez is bringing — has brought — to the boardroom the one person no Spaniard questions: Rafa, an honorary member of Real Madrid since 2017, winner of 22 Grand Slam titles and a businessman himself (hotels, academies, investments).

If 98,000 members need to be convinced that bringing in investors will not change the soul of the club, there could be no better guarantor.