Scotland will hold a referendum on September 18 on whether to leave the United Kingdom. Polling suggests that support for independence has surged over the last few months as pro-independence campaigners managed to reduce the “fear factor”.  In the two-year referendum campaign the prospect of Scotland voting “Yes” to independence seemed slim but now it appears to be a very real prospect with consequences not just for England, Wales and Northern Ireland but for countries as far as Greece.

Geopolitical  expert Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group,  said Monday that if Scotland votes for Independence, we could see a wave of similar schisms throughout Europe, speaking to Business Insider in an article titled “BREMMER: If Scotland Votes for Independence, Prepare for the European ‘Contagion’ Effect Across Europe” .

He believes that if Scotland pulls off a shocker and votes “Yes” to independence the situation in Europe could be rattled. “Other countries will look very closely at how European institutions and member states would manage it. In Spain, Prime Minister Rajoy and the Constitutional Court have both ruled out a similar referendum for Catalonia. But a ‘yes’ in Scotland would make for a much noisier situation in Spain. After a ‘yes’ vote, Scotland would effectively become the pioneer, carving a path forward that Catalonia would try and follow,” says Brenner, adding that less mature independence movements could grow to include the Dutch-speaking Flanders region of Belgium as well as Venice and other areas.

He said that the same thing had been seen when Greece was on the verge of exiting from the European Union a few years ago. “If Athens had moved for the Eurozone exit, members had strong incentives to make that a scorched path, an economically violent process that would keep others from following in Greece’s footsteps,” he said. “Some EU members would surely make an example out of Scotland.”

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