The Ukrainian armed forces’ attack on the Russian city of Kursk is becoming a turning point in the two-year-plus war between Russia and Ukraine, potentially disrupting the previously established balance of power on the battlefield. Although August’s climate favors defensive operations, the Ukrainian military’s operation on Russian soil is yielding even more positive results than Kyiv initially anticipated.
Already, initial videos emerging from the region show significant Russian losses, as Ukrainian forces advance into the southwestern Kursk region of Russia, causing discomfort in the Kremlin.
By surprising Moscow, which was maintaining a “frozen” conflict over the summer, Kyiv caught its opponents off guard earlier this month. The Kremlin responded by declaring a “federal-scale” state of emergency yesterday. Although military blogs report a “stabilization” of the situation in recent hours following the arrival of Russian reinforcements, significant Russian losses are believed to have alarmed Moscow, especially as residents of the Kursk region are appealing directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help.
Game-Changer
At the same time, “this week’s invasion marks the first time that regular Ukrainian military units and special operations forces have entered Russian territory,” CNN reported, emphasizing the significance of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The goal is to drive Russian forces out of positions from which they could easily operate towards the Kharkiv region, which they attacked with ferocity last May. However, the successful military operations for Ukraine so far have boosted the morale of its personnel, even as U.S. officials do not believe Ukraine intends to hold onto Russian territory long-term.
In any case, the situation in Kursk reflects Russia’s discomfort with the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has announced that it has sent an additional team of 80 rescuers, including bomb disposal experts, to the broader region to safely evacuate the population.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indirectly referred to the invasion of Russian territory yesterday, commenting that “this is extremely important and has been particularly effective over the past three days,” adding that “we must return freedom to all our people who remain in Russian captivity.”
With the Ukrainian attack in full swing, Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the Ukrainian president, praised the stance of the allies, describing the Western response as “completely calm, balanced, objective, and based on an understanding of the spirit of international law and the principles of defensive warfare.” “Now, a significant part of the international community considers [Russia] a legitimate target for any operations and types of weapons,” Podolyak concluded.
From Brussels, EU Foreign Affairs spokesperson Peter Stano stated that Ukraine “has the legal right to defend itself, including striking an aggressor on its territory,” in contrast to U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller, who emphasized that Ukraine must decide its own tactics.
A Necessary Victory
In any case, the unwavering support of Ukraine from its allies has made a successful operation almost necessary after more than two years of conflict, to boost the confidence not only of those fighting on the front lines but also of those working to further support Ukraine in the diplomatic field.
At the same time, the Ukrainian advance forces Moscow to split its main forces for defense purposes, while the Ukrainian forces’ tactical target, Sudzha, is very close—a Russian gas terminal near the border, crucial for the supply of gas from Russia to Europe. Ukraine’s high strategy includes the destruction of infrastructure in Russia, such as airports, oil and gas transportation stations, and transport networks.
The confidence of Ukrainians to send their regular military forces into Russia is also attributed to the powerful arsenal they now possess, ranging from F-16 aircraft to German battle tanks, for which Olaf Scholz’s government was heavily pressured, with his party being the most cautious within the governing coalition.
According to Politico, a German government spokesman stated that the government had no information of its own regarding the use of German weapons in the current hostilities, following a report by Bild on Thursday that Marder infantry fighting vehicles were present in Russia.
Turning Point: The Presidential Elections
However, the urgency of the Ukrainians to advance into Russian territory, attacking Russian forces, indicates Kyiv’s need to create “precedents” before the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, as no one can predict the outcome of the popular vote or the extent of American support for Ukraine moving forward, in the absence of Joe Biden.
Especially when, for the first time, Russia appears willing to sit at the negotiating table, leaving open the possibility of participating in the next peace conference organized by Ukraine and its allies.
Surprised by the developments, residents of Kursk turned to Russian President Vladimir Putin via video, asking for his help, while claiming that the Kremlin strongman is not fully informed about the situation on the ground and that statements by the Russian Ministry of Defense that things are under control are false.
