Hello, let’s start with the unpleasant news. For those of you who thought that by attending the inauguration of the Thessaloniki Metro you would hear some culture from Dionysis Savvopoulos and maybe a few tunes from Antonakis Remos, you were mistaken. Because with a “prime minister’s order,” as they say, the party got canceled and the only thing that will be heard is some cheerful melody from the State Orchestra of Northern Greece. If only we had PASOK (which had been announced it since Akis’ time) we would have some Johnnie Black, nuts and a few flowers for us to enjoy…
Awkwardness…
Who among us hasn’t sung “the atmosphere is electrified” by Anna Vissi? The atmosphere is electrified, words won’t come from our lips, silence says it all tonight, what can you say and what can I say, awkwardness… That was pretty much the vibe yesterday at the Karamanlis Foundation event in Philothei, with Mitsotakis, Karamanlis, and Samaras. This chilly atmosphere was, of course, when K.M. showed up because Rafinas and the Turk-eater Antonaros were having a blast. They were “fooling around” like crazy, recalling the word that sparked the atmosphere a few days ago in Parliament. Anyway, there was a corridor separating the current PM from the former ones, and next to K.M. sat Monti and Achilleas Karamanlis, so…we made it through yesterday. Today we have another meeting between K.M. and Samaras at Elytis’ House. Well, we’ll find another tune to describe it.
A Little Tiff
I was told that a minister elected in the northern part of Athens began leaking info last week that another government official, who has locked in their plans to run in the northern sector, is supposedly heading west or south, resulting in a small stir among some groups of MPs. This was officially denied, and life went on. Guys, cool down, first, we don’t have elections, and second, let some new people do some work; the seats don’t belong to anyone.
PASOK
A picture is worth a thousand words, as an old cliché goes. We’re talking about the photo of SYRIZA MP Petros Pappas, not exactly a fervent supporter of former president Kasselakis anymore, next to PASOK’s big shot, Nikolas. The New Democracy folks have caught wind of the Petros Pappas-PASOK flirtation and have started making jokes, hence the party’s secretary Syreggela teasing PASOK’s Thanasis Glavinas about the little “romance” on a TV panel. But what can Petros do? He needs a roof over his head, and the truth is he looks more like a PASOK member than a SYRIZA or a leftist.
PASOK (2)
Now since we’re talking about PASOK, yesterday New Democracy proposed academic Dimitris Sotiropoulos for the position of Ombudsman, indeed a personality from the center-left, a serious and measured man. However, PASOK found an absurd excuse not to vote for him, claiming that the current Ombudsman Pottakis should remain despite his term having ended two and a half years ago because, they say, he is still investigating the tragic case of the Pylos shipwreck. Indeed, PASOK argues that Mr. Sotiropoulos is not capable of continuing a serious investigation that falls within the responsibilities of the Ombudsman, or rather that if the investigation takes another two years, the same person whose term has already expired for two and a half years should remain in his position. Now you might ask me why…we’re wasting time on the obvious, that PASOK will simply say “no” to everything that happens.
Piraeus Bank Kicks Off
Analysts expect the management of Piraeus Bank to announce today an equally strong third quarter as the second, with profits around €320 million. This means that this year will close with profits exceeding €1 billion, while management will announce that in 2024 they will issue more loans than last year with much lower credit provisions, indicating that most borrowers are good payers. The market is waiting to get a sense of how Piraeus will manage deferred taxes based on the new agreement reached with the SSM under the supervision of the Bank of Greece. The way Piraeus will handle DTC, which management will announce today, aligns perfectly with the Bank of Greece. Despite the optimistic signals, however, Piraeus Bank’s share price at €3.43 is still below the price of the recent placement at €4 and is 8.6% lower than the price it had six months ago. After Piraeus, results (and DTC management) will be announced by National Bank and Eurobank on November 7 and by Alpha Bank on November 8.
The shareholders support the investment of 340 million for “The Ilisian”
The Ionian Hotel Company has full support from shareholders until the operation of “The Ilisian” at the former Hilton in Athens. The 280-room hotel under the Conrad brand of the Hilton group is set to begin operations in the summer of 2025, as announced by Hilton itself. According to the financial report for the fiscal year 2023, total equity at the end of summer amounted to a credit balance of €37.84 million, which is less than half of the company’s capital (€94.227 million). At the general assembly at the end of August, the shareholders of TEMES (48.19%), Fives Dunes (46.3%), and Alpha Bank (5.51%) decided not to take any measures regarding this, “as the reduction in the company’s equity is entirely temporary, due solely to the ongoing remodeling of the company’s property. Once completed, the company is expected to reopen its property as a co-owned hotel and, more broadly, as a new destination for the city, becoming profitable again. Furthermore, in any case, the shareholders confirm that the company enjoys their continued support, and there is no uncertainty regarding the fulfillment of the company’s obligations and the continuation of its business activities.” It is noted that for 2023, Ionian Hotel Company reported post-tax losses of €11.975 million compared to losses of €47.281 million in the previous fiscal year, which also did not generate any revenue as the property has been closed since February 2022, when the former Hilton ceased operations. The total investment for the new destination, which will include not only the hotel but also branded residences (18 private Conrad Residences and 37 Waldorf Astoria Residences, both also brands of the Hilton group), restaurants, shops, and a private club, is estimated at €340 million. This amount includes an initial investment for the acquisition of the building by the TEMES-Olayan groups. In April 2024, the company proceeded with the third disbursement of the bond loan, amounting to €24.5 million. In September 2024, the creditor, National Bank, approved a request for a reduction in the interest margin from 2.0% to 1.50% during the construction period and to 1.20% from 1.80% upon the hotel’s commencement of operations, effective from the current interest period, as well as the modification of the definition of investment costs to include operational and other expenses incurred during the construction period.
BC Partners: Two golden exits (despite market conditions)
Generally, it is not the best time for the markets, as besides other uncertainties, we have the American elections, and most institutional investors close their books on November 15. Therefore, the success of BC Partners led by Nikos Stathopoulos is significant, as they made two successful exits in this volatile environment. Earlier this month, Springer Nature, a global publishing giant and scientific data manager, completed the largest IPO of the year in Germany. The company, of which BC Partners is a major shareholder, debuted on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange with demand exceeding the offer by more than six times, and the valuation of Springer Nature reached €7 billion. Just a few days ago, the second “strike” followed, with BC Partners announcing the sale of the majority stake in the security services company, GardaWorld. In 2019, acquiring the majority stake in the Canadian company was the largest private acquisition in Canadian history, with the company’s valuation reaching €3.4 million. In less than five years, the valuation more than doubled, reaching €9 billion, providing BC Partners the opportunity to make another “golden” exit while also retaining a minority stake.
AKTOR: Where will the 200 million from the capital increase go?
Intrakat, which became the AKTOR Group, aims to achieve a turnover of €1.4 billion and EBITDA of €184 million by 2025, and a turnover of €3.2 billion and €430 million in operating profit by 2030. To this end, it will invest €2 billion for acquisitions, starting the process for a capital increase of €200 million. An extraordinary general assembly has already been convened for November 19 so that shareholders can give the “green light” for both the capital increase and the name change. As for the €200 million increase, about €50 million will be used to strengthen the existing working capital of the company and its subsidiaries, while another €50 million will be allocated to finance part of the total estimated net price (excluding debt obligations) of about €180 million for the acquisition of a portfolio of properties valued at approximately €600 million from Prodea. This investment is expected to be completed around the beginning of the second quarter of 2025. Subsequently, €10 million will constitute the first installment for the acquisition of the company “ENTELECHEIA” owned by Georgios and Vasilis Gantzoulas, which specializes in the construction of networks. AKTOR states that the remainder of the total price (which cannot exceed €30.06 million) will be paid in three equal annual installments, which will be covered by other funds of the company. Finally, €90 million will be allocated for financing investments in renewable energy sources (RES). It should be noted that the total investment program of the AKTOR Group in projects for the production of electricity from RES, upon completion, will involve a total investment of €1.1 billion, which will be financed in part by some of the capital increase, from equity, from bank loans, among other sources. Finally, the Group plans to participate in pumped storage projects with a total capacity of approximately 1.5 GW when fully developed.
An old friend for OTE in Romania
OTE has opened a new round of negotiations for the sale of its subsidiary Telekom Romania Mobile (TKRM) in Romania. The reason is the withdrawal from the negotiating table of Adrian Tomșa, the owner of the Clever Media media group in Romania, who until recently was vying for TKRM alongside DIGI, one of the strong players in the Romanian telecommunications market, also present in Italy, Spain, and Portugal. It is possible that the Romanian authorities, as had happened in the past, had objections regarding the structure that was vying for TKRM. In any case, the position of Tomșa was taken by Vodafone Romania, which is one of DIGI’s competitors (formerly RCS&RDS) in the local market, a development that was characterized in the Romanian market as a “surprise” and “unexpected twist.” According to some reports, Vodafone Romania had conducted due diligence on TKRM some time ago but had not proceeded to express interest. Recently, Vodafone Romania was undergoing changes and redesigning its strategy as it lost market shares during the tenure of its previous CEO, the Frenchwoman Murielle Lorilloux, and was also hit with a large fine for competition issues, a case that has lingered from the past. The new CEO is a Greek, Achilleas Kanaris, who was previously CEO of the group’s subsidiary in Albania. Now, sources very close to the negotiations say that this may be the best opportunity for OTE to sell its subsidiary in Romania and finally navigate the deal past the regulatory authorities, as practically TKRM will be divided into pieces. DIGI and Vodafone Romania will share customers, licenses, spectrum, and the network of Telekom Romania in a deal that, if all goes well, is expected to be completed by early 2025.
Honorary Doctorate for A. Sarrygeorgiou
On Tuesday, November 5, at a special ceremony at the Municipal Theater of Piraeus, the University of Piraeus will confer an honorary doctorate in business organization and administration on the President and CEO of Eurolife, Alexandros Sarrygeorgiou.
Heatwaves boosted Coca-Cola sales
It is not going through the most smooth period either, as it had to recall one of its products from the Austrian market, while a major fire in Serbia is affecting its production there. However, the hot summer months throughout Europe led consumers to more Coca-Cola products, resulting in a new increase in net sales revenue of +13.9% in the quarter and +13.7% in the first nine months of the year. Coca-Cola 3E also emerged with gains in turnover and profits, but the stock market used it to mitigate losses from other stocks, resulting in the share price plunging below €32 and its market capitalization dropping below €12 billion, obviously influenced by the situation in international stock markets.
A Bad Month
October turned out to be the worst month of the year with the best turnover to date. With monthly losses of -4.77% and the Banking index at -8.36%, but with an average daily trading value of around €163.5 million (mainly due to packages and placements), October lost the 1,400 points mark and disappointed everyone who followed the enthusiastic road shows of the Greek Stock Exchange in recent weeks. Yesterday was the day an attempt was made for window dressing of institutional portfolios. Many packages were again traded in an effort to beautify the portfolios, while profitable shares were being sold off. A classic example is the stock of OTE, the only one among the 9 stocks of MSCI Greece Standard that closed the month in positive territory, which was sold off indiscriminately (transactions of €14.2 million) by desperate managers who sent OTE a quarter back to €15.17 (-3.68%). Similarly, many transactions (about €10 million) were made in Metlen, which closed at €32.06 (-2.26%), in Jumbo at €24.5 (-2%), and in GEK TERNA at €17.3 (-1%). The General Index failed to approach the fortress of 1,400 points even once and closed at 1,382.68 points (+0.06%), with transaction value at €149.24 million, including €16.4 million in packages. The stock of DEI managed to gain 2.12% to €12.05, with a turnover of €7.9 million.
51.4% of Americans Expect an Increase on Wall Street
The books of stock market theory are being thrown onto the bonfire. No one is concerned with numbers and indicators anymore. Everyone is “studying market psychology” and liquidity. Today, equity risk premiums are negative. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is now higher than the earnings yield of the S&P 500 stock index. Theoretically, this is yet another sign that we are moving into bubble territory. Nevertheless, the percentage of American investors expecting even higher stock prices in the next 12 months has reached 51.4%, the highest recorded percentage. It is even higher than in 2018 or 2000 before the peak of the Dot-Com bubble. The percentage of optimistic investors has more than doubled over the past two years, as the stock market experiences its most profitable period of this century. The S&P 500 index has now increased by +40% in the last 12 months, marking its fourth best performance since 2000. When some mention the negative equity risk premiums that we referenced at the beginning, the response is that bond yields were higher than S&P 500 earnings yields in the past, from January 1987 to 2003. Even then, however, investors preferred the stock market, reaping high profits.
Trump and Cryptocurrencies
Donald Trump’s unabashed support for bitcoin and his promises to make America the metropolis of blockchain and cryptocurrencies have profoundly impacted crypto enthusiasts. In the past two weeks, aided by polls showing Trump closer to the U.S. Presidency, cryptocurrency mutual funds have recorded inflows of $3.1 billion. For Bitcoin alone, inflows reached $3.05 billion, while Ethereum saw only $22.8 million. More than $2.3 billion, or 76% of all inflows, have gone into the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. Since the beginning of the year, total inflows have reached the impressive figure of $27.1 billion, nearly three times the previous record set in 2021. As we approach the critical elections on November 5, the exchange rate of Bitcoin has increased by about 32% since early September and has returned above $70,000.
