Greetings, so the analyses are flowing not just nationwide, but globally, regarding Trump’s overwhelming victory. In Europe, there was such a commotion that Scholz almost fell by himself just by hearing the news from across the Atlantic. Now, at the top of the rhetoric about the causes of Kamala’s loss, there are several issues, mainly the excessive promotion of the Democrats’ woke agenda. Let me clarify that I too believe the woke agenda has generally worn people out, and this happened in Greece where Mitsotakis lost the first half of 2024 over gay marriage, along with significant percentage points in the European elections for ND. But let’s not oversimplify things, because obviously, the reasons that led a guy like Trump to the power of the world’s most powerful country are much more complex. And they mainly have to do with his opponents from another party who probably don’t understand much of what’s happening in society. Just as America leads in everything, we are seeing the “precursors” of what’s coming to Europe. And to Greece, too, right?
SYRIZA
Well, let’s leave the deep thoughts and the misfortune that (didn’t) hit us with Trump because if we all go to “Gazi live” this afternoon and even though Mazonakis no longer sings there, Kasselakis might… If, of course, Mantzouranis, who will probably be the president of the SYRIZA Congress, a lawyer who isn’t known for his flexibility, allows him. Now, what will happen inside “Gazi live” we’ll find out live from tonight, but I’ve occasionally witnessed fierce fights in bouzoukia where, between whiskies and flowers, it turns into an American bar. And the singer can’t save the situation, he keeps singing in hopes that the spirits will calm down. Well, the “Priesthood” says that the match will start early when they propose Mantzouranis as president, and the Kasselakis group proposes Rigas or Skorinis (according to my source). If Mantzouranis passes, the second commotion will happen during the vote for the agenda, don’t ask me for details because that’s where it will be decided whether the evening continues (good evening and good night, as the late Karas used to say) or whether chairs will be thrown and that’s it. Now, according to my source, if the Congress concludes, we will have elections by the end of the month as planned. If it doesn’t finish, they are looking at elections during Carnival (it’s a coincidence).
Nammos
You might have read about the tax evasion case of Nammos Mykonos as well as the related dispute between the majority shareholders-founders (in Mykonos) of the legendary Zannis – Loro Piana, Monaco – Rolls Royce, etc., and Sammy the Chef – Dubai with their Arab partners. The Arab fund, linked to the Sheikh of Abu Dhabi, which has become a shareholder there, sent a lawsuit to Zannis and Sammy and warned them that it would take them to London’s arbitration courts (where the contract they have between them is governed), accusing them of mismanagement in Mykonos, demanding tens of millions. At the same time, the “kids” also received a tax fine of about 2 million euros, which was finalized a few days ago. So, I’m told that we are heading toward a settlement where the two founders (Zannis and Sammy) will give the Arabs 55% of the company that controls Nammos in Mykonos, and now they’re negotiating the price. They want about one hundred million and the Arabs want to give them about 40 million, after they “clear things up” with the tax office, which the Zannis guys got involved with. Anyway, may everyone be well and settle their differences so we can write about it. Now, of course, you might ask how these guys will survive on the crumbs the Arabs want to give them to get rid of them. I’m not afraid of them, fools are everywhere, even in Athens…
HelleniQ Energy Returns to the Spotlight
Trump’s return to the White House for many signals major changes in the way global oil markets will function from now on. While previous studies indicated a steady decline in oil demand due to recession and a shift toward renewable energy sources, today, traders’ expectations are more optimistic. In this way, the plan for another placement of 20% of HelleniQ Energy’s shares into institutional portfolios comes back into focus. Equally interesting is the fact that major business groups are clearly showing their intent to participate in this process. Today, HelleniQ Energy is worth 2 billion euros on the stock exchange. The Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) holds 31.18% of HelleniQ Energy, and the Paneuropean Oil Group (Latsis group) holds 40.41%. In about 40 days from now, HRADF will be abolished, and its portfolio will pass to the Superfund, which is keen to fill its investment portfolio with cash. For now, Paneuropean’s position is unclear, as it has not yet revealed its investment strategy. If 20% of HelleniQ Energy is sold, the Superfund will allocate 12% and Paneuropean 8%.
GEK TERNA, the “paper” of concessions and the explosion in EBITDA
Now let’s turn to GEK TERNA, specifically its subsidiary GEK TERNA Concessions, where a capital increase of 25 million euros, decided last July, has been completed and certified, raising the company’s share capital to 172.2 million euros. Meanwhile, the concessions segment has a dominant position in Eurobank Equities’ report, which has resumed coverage of GEK TERNA with a “buy” recommendation and a target price of 23.40 euros (yesterday’s closing was 17.48 euros). The analyst from the brokerage, Nikos Athanasoulias, specifically mentions that all eyes are now on the concessions, as the recent securing of additional concessions will reshape the profit mix, leading to an increase of over 50% in EBITDA by 2026 (compared to 2024 levels), reaching 693 million euros, while also enhancing the visibility of free cash flow (FCF) production. GEK TERNA holds shares in 5 out of the 7 motorway concessions in mainland Greece (with one still pending transfer), with an average remaining lifespan of over 20 years and no expirations before 2037. All concessions are operational, with only one requiring a 5-year construction period, while it has also secured the BOAK concession (operation after 2030). It’s no secret that the group has various thoughts on the concessions sector, as George Peristeris has mentioned that studies are underway to better optimize the sector financially, and it remains to be seen if this will involve a spin-off for stock market listing, selling stakes in the concessions to funds, or other strategic options and combinations.
What investors see in private schools
On 5/11, we wrote about the four cases in recent months of foreign investors acquiring private educational institutions, noting that the financial goal of these investors is to build an organization based on the good reputation of the school, offering all levels of education, while improving facilities to attract more students. Another interesting factor explaining why private schools are suddenly changing hands is the following: The number of students attending private schools has reached 110,000. Never before, even during the periods of greatest economic prosperity, had the number of students exceeded 100,000. Therefore, there is strong demand.
The Jacobs businesses around the world (and in Greece)
And since the topic turned to private schools, let’s mention an aside regarding the acquisition of a majority stake in the Doukas Educational Group by the Cognita Group, part of Jacobs Holding AG. This investment company is one of the investment vehicles of the well-known Swiss Jacobs family, who you surely recognize from the eponymous… coffee (Jacobs). That’s where it all started, specifically from a coffee shop opened in Bremen in 1895, which led the family to become one of the wealthiest in the world. Of course, this is not their only business activity, as Jacobs Holding AG entered the human resources sector by acquiring Adia, which later merged with the French company Ecco to create the giant Adecco, from which they divested a decade ago. Additionally, they control Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest producer of chocolate and cocoa, Colosseum Dental Group (600 dental clinics in 11 European countries), and Cognita in the education sector, which recently acquired ILERNA.
Which powerful figure is buying shares of the Bank of Cyprus
Within the span of a week, the share of Bank of Cyprus Holdings Plc has regained the ground lost in previous periods, with notable trading activity. Yesterday, with a trading volume close to 500,000 shares, Bank of Cyprus reached €4.38, up more than +3.5%, and rumors are circulating in the market that a powerful institutional investor (various scenarios are circulating regarding the identity of the buyer) is systematically building a position in the bank’s equity. If the information is accurate, official announcements should follow soon. In a similar context, we learned – about a month ago – that the stake of Car Val Investors in Bank of Cyprus was reduced to 6.09% of the bank’s equity.
Nonsense
And since the topic turned to the stock market, the column – after thoroughly investigating – has concluded that the rumors currently circulating in the market about a brokerage firm supposedly being acquired by a bank are nonsense – to put it mildly. After all, this exact same scenario, with a different bank and the same brokerage, was played out just a few months ago. So, don’t buy into it…
Trade Estates is preparing acquisitions
Trade Estates has two good contracts ahead of it and aims to complete their signing before the end of the year. However, more interesting is a third major project the company is targeting, which seeks to take advantage of the internal challenges of the past few months that have plagued Noval Property and led to a change in its management. After logistics and retail parks, Trade Estates has a comparative advantage over the competition in the real estate sector. Recently, the CEO of Trade Estates, D. Papoulis, also spoke about the possibility of the company’s geographical expansion into Eastern Europe, with Bulgaria being the first target and Romania next. All of this has stock market relevance, as one of the goals is to reduce the stake of the main shareholders through a private placement as soon as possible, with the aim of further increasing the company’s dispersion and reducing the participation of the Fourlis shareholders to below 50%.
The tender for the property in Porto Heli is frozen
The tender by the Hellenic Republic Asset Development Fund (HRADF) for the development of the 627-acre site in the Vervelonta area, Porto Heli, is suspended. The deadline for submitting bids ended yesterday, and, according to HRADF, the targets regarding the price and investment interest were not achieved, as interest was lower than expected. Thus, the property will be put aside for the immediate future. However, previous tenders had also faced many reactions from the local community, so it remains to be seen what will happen with the property.
Instead of EFKA, to the Development Bank
Two weeks ago, this column had announced the transfer of Konstantinos Angelopoulos, Director of Business Units, who since 2019 had been responsible for the management of large real estate assets at the Public Properties Company (ETAD), to the position of General Director at EFKA, specifically in EFKA Real Estate, with the special task of managing the Organization’s vast real estate portfolio. The truth is that Mr. Angelopoulos had passed all the ASEP competitive procedures for this specific position. However, just a few days before assuming his duties at EFKA, he received an equally interesting offer-challenge from the Board of Directors of the Hellenic Development Bank (HDB) to take on the position of General Director of Financial Products. Given his extensive professional experience in investment, European programs, and competitiveness, Konstantinos Angelopoulos, literally at the last moment, changed course and has been working at the Hellenic Development Bank since the beginning of the month.
“To know us better” for 20 listed companies
Next Tuesday, the management of the Athens Stock Exchange will organize a “to know us better” meeting between the management teams of small-cap companies and analysts and managers of the Association of Institutional Investors. Throughout the day, at the hotel where the event will take place, near the Temple of Olympian Zeus, there will be one-on-one meetings between small-cap listed companies and the country’s institutional investors. The participants will be welcomed by the CEO, Giannis Kontopoulos, as well as by Panagiotis Antonopoulos, First Vice President of the Association of Institutional Investors and CEO of Alpha Asset Management. Already, 20 small-cap listed companies have confirmed their participation, and naturally, all the institutional investors in the country will be there.
Record in Mutual Funds
Greek savers are placing between 95 and 100 million euros weekly into Mutual Funds. Combined with the increase in the value of securities and returns, the assets in Mutual Funds have now surpassed 21 billion euros, which raises hopes that with the strengthening of institutional funds, there could be a more professional approach to market fluctuations. However, the increase in Mutual Fund assets is mainly due to new share purchases and inflows of savings, rather than an increase in the value of shares. The inflow rate relative to the increase in assets has now skyrocketed to the staggering level of 81.49%, according to Kostas Siabrakos’ analysis. Since the beginning of the year, assets have increased by 32.69%, with the number of shares rising by 19.38%. The absolute increase in capitalization is 5.153 billion euros, of which 4.199 billion comes from new share purchases. Already, this year’s record inflows have surpassed the 2023 total by 1.012 billion, and all signs point to more to come.
Infrastructure upgrade contracts
Yesterday, the PPF Unit of HRADF signed a €4.6 million contract for the upgrade of 7 hospitals in Crete. With this contract, all tenders assigned to HRADF for the upgrade of infrastructure in 80 hospitals across Greece have been completed. The PPF had taken on, in cooperation with the Ministry of Health, the implementation of the largest infrastructure upgrade program for the National Health System. The plan included the maturation and conduct of 157 tenders, with a total budget of €530 million, for 80 hospitals and more than 150 health centers across the country.
The commercial real estate crisis deepens in the U.S.
For the first time in the last 11 years, the percentage of “bad” loans granted for the purchase and operation of commercial real estate in the U.S. market skyrocketed to 9.4%, according to October data. In fact, loans more than three months overdue in the commercial real estate sector have quintupled in just two years. Such an increase in loan delinquencies for commercial properties has not been seen since the Lehman Brothers crisis in 2008. In July 2012, the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans reached 10.3%. Many believe that this negative record will soon be broken in the U.S. real estate market, which is suffering from high interest rates, new consumer trends, and the desire of employees to work more from home.
