The technological warfare called for by Vladimir Putin with Kyiv as a test bed brings new debate regarding Russia’s potential to develop more supersonic missiles and, more importantly, use them against Ukraine.

The use of supersonic missiles by Moscow is not an issue that Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine have not understood and taken seriously. On the contrary… The Ukrainian President has made both in person and in writing a request to Joe Biden since early 2023 to give them the THAAD systems. The US had made it clear at the time that these systems were exclusively for the country’s defense and were not among those that could be sent to Ukraine.

Eventually, Washington deployed these systems overseas a few months later (last October), this time to protect Israel from another ballistic missile attack by Tehran. It seems that despite having a total of six batteries in its arsenal, the US sent not one but two of them to Tel Aviv…

Today with Vladimir Putin declining to call – in effect daring – the US to send similar systems to Kiev and let the whole world see if they can intercept his Oreshnik, Moscow is taking a step further in escalation just before the change of leadership and the advent of Donald Trump. December was not a “winning” month for Russia after the events and developments in Syria and Putin’s diplomatic “counterattack” was pretty much expected, especially in his annual stocktaking speech.

But how likely is it that the Russian president means what he says?

Evidence to prove the size of Russia’s supersonic arsenal does not exist and with evidence no one, unless desperate, takes such risks. The Oreshnik strike on Dnipro in November did indeed cause concern and mobilization in both Kyiv and the West. The analyses of Moscow’s new weapons system nevertheless did not – how could they after three years of war – cause panic among the Ukrainians and their allies.

The US even appeared to have enough evidence and stated – albeit through sources – that Russia does not even have the appropriate warheads for these supersonic missiles. Kyiv is also aware that today this sophisticated weapon system is not its main problem but insists on asking for specific protection as Moscow has other, not so-sophisticated, supersonic weapons. It is also extremely difficult to know whether Moscow has indeed accelerated the processes and whether it has indeed focused on the mass production of such missiles. With the clear direction of mass importation of drones and ammunition from Iran and North Korea, however, it is hard to be convinced that Moscow has the resources for at least such rapid moves.

Kiev’s reaction and the sharp American question

Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels called “unsubstantiated” Russian narrative that it wants to turn its nation’s capital into a field for measuring the performance of US and Russian weapons systems but did not answer whether it insists on asking Washington and the Trump-era soon-to-rise THAAD systems… On the counterpoint, the Russian President lost some of his “cheerfulness” when he took an American question at his “headquarters” in which he appeared as the “weakest” of the negotiators in case the next US President set a diplomatic table.

With Kyiv losing daily measures from Donbas and Russia sacrificing hundreds of its troops in Kursk, Russia, and Ukraine find themselves having given problems both on the ground and in diplomacy. Donald Trump and his staff appear to be taking on a situation specifically in this case that, with the right manipulations, could yield some early substantive discussions about ending the three-year war.