Greetings, we have now entered the heart of summer, Athens is emptying more and more, the islands and resorts are filling up, and tourism experts are hopeful that the “dip” visible since the beginning of the season will be “toned up” by last-minute bookings from abroad. This is a phenomenon that has occurred quite often in recent years. Hopefully — although some professionals, as well as entire islands, need a bit of a lesson, because they’ve overdone it with prices, mainly in accommodation, sunbeds, and entertainment. In politics, dominating — at least in the media — are the “Kovetsiades,” where suddenly the European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating everything that flies and swims over the past five years. Fine, let them investigate what they must, I’m not saying otherwise, but it would be good — because we’ve seen this “Clean Hands” scenario before — for the public to also learn what of all this is true and what is fiction. It would be good, therefore, for the Media instead of sitting stunned and staring, as they did in the case of “xylol, benzol, landfill” etc., to clarify what exists and what doesn’t. It appears that several reports are under investigation, but the only certain thing for now is that wiretaps for any case other than OPEKEPE have not been requested and have not taken place. Keep that in mind, because it matters. Also note that the European Public Prosecutor’s Office, in its official report for 2024, has investigated cases in almost all countries and is “bringing the pain” with massive fines. Indicatively, apart from Greece, in Italy 764 cases were examined with an estimated total damage to the EU of €7.05 billion, of which 116 involve agricultural subsidies. In Germany, 295 cases with €5 billion in damages, of which 9 are agricultural. In total, 2,660 cases are under investigation across 24 countries. So let’s bring the topic a bit down to earth.

Preliminary Investigation

Regarding the OPEKEPE scandal, by the end of the week PASOK is expected to submit a request in Parliament for a Preliminary Investigative Committee. Mitsotakis has not yet decided what he will do — he’s thinking about it, I hear, and listening to recommendations. But at least the legal experts studying the case file do not see any criminal offenses either for Voridis or Avgenakis. Now, one or two inside the government are expressing concerns like “what will happen in Parliament if the government is against the Preliminary Committee and some of our MPs vote in favor?” I don’t know if that’s true, but I don’t really believe anyone wants political adventures in the middle of summer, during vacations and heatwaves. In any case, to be precise, I do not have a clear picture of what Mitsotakis will ultimately decide.

The OXI Anniversary That Became a YES

The funniest thing I heard these days, with all the talk about the 10-year anniversary of the referendum, was a… romantic take on the OXI that soon after became YES: “Why are you all making such a fuss? They were like some of those youthful flings where, on the first date, the girls would say ‘no, don’t,’ but shortly after, they’d gradually warm up.” Now, returning to the serious side, Tsipras seems to be setting sail for a new party. The anniversary of the turbulent period of 2015 will be forgotten in a few days or hours and… let’s get to the point. Alexis is trying to convince, in every tone, that he wanted to negotiate, not to take the country out of the Eurozone, and essentially hinted slightly that he may have made a mistake — or at least that’s what I understood from the context of his words. Anyway, from the result, my friend… the negotiation through the referendum went well: they scored a goal, we took the kickoff!

Ready?

Merkel, anyway — and not just her — sort of “softened him up” with a couple of kind words in books and articles, the salons of the media and the oligarchs are slowly reopening (his English is also quite good now), and his political rivals in the center-left are laughable. We may be in for an exceptionally interesting winter. And Mitsotakis gets yet another unexpected helping hand.

Changes at ERT

Significant changes are being planned for the Public Broadcaster ahead of the new television season. I hear that these have as their main focus the strengthening of ERTNEWS, which is gradually planned to be included in AGB’s ratings. The logic is that from the next season, ERTNEWS shows airing on ERT1 will be significantly limited, and practically only the main news bulletin at 18:00 will remain, possibly also the midday bulletin at 12:00. All other content will stay on ERTNEWS, while ERT1’s programming will be reinforced with more relaxed shows.

Hatzidakis

From Nisyros, Vice President Hatzidakis said something I took as a “warning bell” from the government about its overall strategy. Responding to criticisms on national matters, he recalled initiatives such as the delimitation of maritime zones with Italy and Egypt, strengthening of the Armed Forces, Chevron’s interest in exploration south of Crete, the decisions of the European Council last week reminding that the Turkey-Libya memorandum is illegal, and the government’s message to Libya that any financial assistance to that country passes through Athens, through maritime spatial planning and Egypt’s assurances regarding the Monastery of Sinai.

Mitsotakis’ Satisfaction and Mount Athos

Some thought that K.M would have a hard time on Mount Athos or at least that there might be some incidents, but nothing happened. It’s not just that the visit was seriously prepared, it’s also that the monks, having heard about the 100 million from the NSRF, didn’t want to cause a fuss for the Prime Minister. After all, they also have to deal with the “government.” Hence, people who saw him up close described to me Mitsotakis’ satisfaction — not to mention that he shared the visit with his son, as had happened to him with his own father.

The Libyans and the Business

It’s not that all problems with Haftar were solved just because Gerapetritis went down to Benghazi, but generally speaking, it’s better to talk than not to talk. And the truth is that Libya had somewhat fallen off the radar in Greek considerations until it reemerged. What the Libyans mainly understand is the color of money. And in that, Greek entrepreneurs can help — I hear a business mission is being organized — as well as European funds. After all, the next visitor is tomorrow: the European Commissioner for Migration, Magnus Brunner. All this, provided that Haftar’s Libyans do not ratify the Turkey-Libya memorandum, because if they do, things get more difficult. A familiar figure from the past appeared in the Greek delegation that accompanied Foreign Minister G. Gerapetritis to Benghazi. Dimitris Dollis, former Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the Australian Parliament and former Deputy Foreign Minister (2010–2012), participated in the mission in his new capacity as the Prime Minister’s Special Envoy for Middle Eastern and North African affairs. D. Dollis has long-standing experience in the region and has perhaps undertaken more missions to Libya than any other Greek official. His experience and connections were deemed useful during this period of developments in the neighboring country. One of the special missions he had successfully carried out involved Iran, where, after weeks of negotiations away from the spotlight, he managed to get the Revolutionary Guards to agree to release the two Greek tankers they had seized. And as things appear, he will have plenty of work ahead.

Androulakis Generation Reunion

According to some acquaintances of mine who were wandering around SEF on a Sunday, I was told that the reconstitution of PASOK Youth looked more like… a reunion of the Androulakis generation. The average age in the “Melina Mercouri” hall was well above 30, and—if we consider the issue of the speakers—most of them had memories of the “dirty ‘89,” since they were beyond their late thirties. In the same (borderline critical) age group were most of the “deal-makers” of the Congress, with a notable forty-something friend of our leader Nikos leading the pack, a man who is writing golden pages in the nightlife scene of Patras. “Forward-backward,” as a slogan from a well-known Greek series used to say.

Optimism for the Stress Tests

The visit of the SSM to Greece, aimed at evaluating the financial performance of the systemic banks, has concluded. The general impression received by the banks is that the SSM delegation, despite the remarks and general concerns—as supervisors tend to have—appeared satisfied with the performance of the Greek banks. The interesting part is that during their meetings, the SSM representatives also provided some tips about the upcoming stress tests, the results of which are expected by the end of the month. From these, roughly speaking, the banks got the impression that they did quite well. Therefore, if this is confirmed by the official announcements from the SSM, it would bring a change in the qualitative parameters of their capital and possibly, for one or two banks, even lower capital requirements, translating into a release of resources.

The Hot Coals, the Participation Factor, and the €750 Million Blow

And while there is optimism about the stress tests, the borrowers with loans in Swiss francs—especially those most heavily exposed—are on hot coals. A solution has been found and everything indicates that it will be ready for implementation within the month. Banks and servicers are trying, using various algorithms, to calculate different scenarios and the losses in each case. In the hypothetical scenario where all Swiss franc borrowers rush to adopt one of the solutions the government will propose, the costs are significant—estimated at €400 million for the banks and €350 million for the servicers. That is, a total of €750 million, which is certainly not a small amount. However, since this will not happen for many reasons—mainly because some borrowers in Swiss francs either do not want to or cannot pay—the estimate is that the final bill will range between €300 and €400 million. What is critical is the behavior of the more financially stable segment of borrowers. This group is expected not to accept a solution through out-of-court settlement, in order to avoid disclosing their asset status to the banks. However, they are precisely the ones who have the ability to repay their loans through the solution being offered. So, the number of borrowers who will accept the solution on the one hand, and their financial stratification on the other, will determine the final cost.

Vakakis Wants to Talk to His Shareholders

Vakakis must be in a good mood. For the first time ever, Jumbo broke the €30 barrier, the market capitalization exceeds €4.1 billion, and with this stock performance, the company will hold its general shareholders’ meeting the day after tomorrow at noon. Tolis Vakakis insists on in-person meetings because he sees them as a unique opportunity—he avoids interviews—to speak directly with shareholders and explain the group’s tactical and strategic moves. And since he likes to provoke and speak bluntly (last year he showed up to the meeting in bermuda shorts), now that he’s in top form before the holidays… there’s no stopping him. Apart from the dividend, the general assembly will also be called to approve the cancellation of 1.69 million treasury shares acquired by the company, with a corresponding reduction of share capital by €1.49 million.

GEK TERNA Is Building a Base

The €20 mark has become a new reality for GEK TERNA. A sign of the stock’s resilience above this level is the fact that it has held steady for six sessions, despite recording losses in three of them. Intraday, it reached up to €20.38, while the next highest price levels were last seen back in February 2000. Beyond the developments it expects on familiar fronts (concessions, Heron Energy, etc.), the group is expected to significantly boost its backlog this year, as it has been named provisional contractor for €1 billion worth of railway projects in Romania alongside Alstom. The current backlog of the Group’s projects stands at around €7 billion, not including the new projects in Romania.

The Piladakis Agreement

A particularly interesting decision was taken by the Extraordinary General Meeting of shareholders of Vivere Entertainment Commercial and Holdings Single-Member S.A., chaired and managed by Konstantinos Piladakis, as this company has been one of the various “vehicles” for his extensive activity in the world of gambling. During the General Meeting held on June 21, and by the Board of Directors on the same day, it was decided “to grant authorization pursuant to Articles 99 et seq., 100, and 109 et seq. of Law 4548/2018 for the company to enter into a private agreement with a person who is a member of the company’s Board of Directors.” Who might this person be? The decision continues: “The employee, Konstantinos Piladakis, as the legal representative of the casino companies, operates under the instructions of the main creditor and its structure, and acts based on the indications and directives of the latter regarding the cooperation of the companies in recovery and restructuring agreements. In view of the above, the need to reduce severance liabilities arising from the aforementioned agreements, and taking into account the previous service and services that the employee has offered and continues to offer to the businesses, an agreement has been reached to conclude the proposed private agreement, under which: a) the obligations arising from the above contracts (original employment contract and loan agreements – private agreements as amended), which remained in force after the expiration of the January 10, 2007 employment contract, will be expressly abolished, b) he will explicitly waive the severance claims included in the aforementioned contracts, c) he will continue to be employed as a senior executive of the company, d) throughout the duration of the contract, he will be entitled to the benefits provided in the proposed open-ended agreement, which may be terminated only for just cause, with entitled compensation of €450,000 for the company and under the other terms provided in the proposed private agreement.” The President of the General Meeting then noted that the legal conditions were met and proposed that the General Meeting decide to grant the required authorization for the conclusion of the proposed private agreement, with the granted authorization being valid for six months and the conclusion of the agreement. Needless to say, the General Meeting approved the proposal and granted its authorization for the conclusion of the proposed private agreement “by which the company accepts the reduction of its obligation to the member of the Board, Chairman of the company’s Board, and undertakes the obligations, including the right to compensation in case of termination of the agreement, included in the above-approved private agreement in relation to this person,” as stated. Let me remind you that Vivere was included in the binding order issued at the end of 2024 by the Anti-Money Laundering Authority and its head, Char. Vourliotis, against K. Piladakis and other individuals involved in connection with the attempt to change the ownership status of the Corfu, Alexandroupoli, and Thrace casinos, while the businessman had denied the accusations…

ODDIH sets a date with bond markets for September

ODDIH will not proceed with a bond auction this week either, as the country has largely covered its borrowing needs for the entire year. Of the seven scheduled bond issuances, ODDIH has implemented only two and – according to reliable sources – will also postpone the next one, which was scheduled for this week. The important news these days is the further tightening of the spread, as the Hellenic Republic now borrows at only 0.01%-0.02% more than France, maintains a spread of 23-25 basis points with Portugal, and 12-15 bps with Spain. The main “competitor” of Greek Government Bonds is… Italian ones, as there also seems to be political stability that reassures investors. “Even Greek investors are currently preferring Italian bonds,” commented a market professional. In the Eurozone, tension is mounting as bond issuances are expected to exceed €1.3 trillion – €50 billion more than last year. Greece, amid this storm of new bonds, is systematically reducing Public Debt (this year below €360 billion), both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of GDP.

PPC has power

For days, the PPC share seemed to have “dried up” in terms of trading volume, hinting at an impending move. That move came with increased turnover, over €9 million, and a strong percentage increase that brought it back onto a record trajectory. It “touched” €14 again, which it hadn’t done since the end of last March, and if it exceeds the annual high of €14.4, it will reach a 16-year record, at levels unseen since November 2009. The share had slightly lagged behind as there is some market skepticism regarding its aggressive business plan, which, however, delivers quarter by quarter, resulting in the stock gradually establishing higher price levels.

The moves of Real Consulting

There are very few listed companies that announce acquisition agreements on Friday afternoon after the close of the stock session. One of them is Real Consulting, which announced last Friday the agreement with Smart UX Development S.R.L. for the acquisition of 95% of its shares, for €2.7 million, with an initial payment of €1.6 million and the remainder in installments until January 2028. Recently – despite the general rally in the Athens Stock Exchange – the Real Consulting share had remained steadily inactive; on Friday, it closed with a -1.54% drop at €5.1, with a market cap just under €110 million. The acquisition announced by Real Consulting is part of its strategic expansion into the utilities sector – a field characterized by intense changes, increasing demands, and a high need for cutting-edge technological solutions. Nevertheless, market sources insist that in the business software sector, many more developments and acquisitions are expected over the summer.

The official announcements of ONYX on its journey to the Main Market

ONYX (formerly MED) has officially submitted its request to the Hellenic Capital Market Commission for transfer from the Alternative to the Main Market of the Stock Exchange. At the same time, ONYX TOURISTIKI S.A. submitted two significant applications regarding its investment plan in the Sani area of Halkidiki: An application for classification as a “Strategic Investment” according to Law 4864/2021, for the project “Agrotourism Village with a Mixed Tourism Accommodation”. An application for inclusion in the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), aiming for financing through an RRF loan amounting to €129.5 million and an additional commercial loan of €100.7 million. The total investment plan concerns an area of 424.979 stremmas, with a budget of €388.1 million, of which €291.7 million concern capital expenditures and €96.4 million operational costs and other expenses. Of these, €287.8 million meet the criteria of the RRF. Moves to increase the free float of shares have already taken place, since the law requires that the main shareholder not hold more than 74.9%. Leonidas Zisiadis returns as a strategic investor in the tourism sector, 10 years after his departure from Sani Resort in 2015. Meanwhile, over the past 12 months, ONYX’s share price has surged by 130% and is currently trading at €1.83, with a capitalization of €129.5 million. When MED ABEE’s share entered the Alternative Market (ENA PLUS) of the Athens Stock Exchange on July 7, 2023, the opening trading price was €0.85 per share. This means that the company’s capitalization on the day of listing was just over €10 million (11,917,870 shares × €0.85).

The market believes Attica Holdings is heading for a bond issue

Many companies envied the success of Aegean Airlines, which offered 250,000 bonds (valued at €1,000 each) to the market. About 190,000 bonds (78%) were allocated to individual small investors, and from today, when the trading of these bonds begins on the Athens Stock Exchange, they offer a return of 3.7% over the next 7 years. Market information suggests that Attica Holdings will be the next company to launch a major “popular bond” issuance, followed by other mid-cap companies. As for Aegean, the €250 million bond issuance adds to its €796 million in cash reserves, allowing the company not only to repay the previous bond maturing in 2026 but—more importantly—to purchase new aircraft without borrowing in order to strengthen its fleet.

Greek Climate Change Observatory in Antikythera

Raymetrics is a Greek high-tech company that has signed an agreement with the National Observatory of Athens to participate as a partner in the PANGAEA project in Antikythera. Raymetrics will install a modern active remote sensing LIDAR system, which will collect critical data on the vertical structure of the atmosphere, enhancing the monitoring of climate change in the region. PANGAEA is the only infrastructure of its kind in the Eastern Mediterranean. It has been selected due to the unique geographical location of Antikythera as a crossroads of air masses and aerosols. The Observatory will provide valuable data on the climate crisis affecting the Mediterranean. Raymetrics offers technological innovation, and through this project, the National Observatory of Athens seeks to create an infrastructure that will produce high-quality observations and data, essential for improving climate forecasts.

The U.S. public debt

Much can be said and attributed to Elon Musk, but on one issue he is absolutely right: The total U.S. public debt is now expected—after the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill—to reach $40 trillion this year. Five years ago, at the beginning of 2020, total U.S. debt stood at $23.2 trillion. This year, therefore, it will record an increase of nearly $17 trillion. Never in history has the U.S. borrowed so much to cover deficits and debt. Many believe this is a strategic choice. An over-indebted public sector with a devalued dollar must be restrained, reduced, and—why not—abolished in many of its activities. Trump’s approach is fewer taxes and a smaller government.