The Lab for Demographic and Social Analyses at the University of Thessaly has predicted that over the next three decades the population of Greece will continue to decline and age, while the birth/death balance will remain negative.

In a relevant analysis entitled “Demographic and Underbirth in Greece Today: Demographic Inertia and Social Challenges”, authored by Ifigenia Kokkali, Assistant Professor and Director of the Laboratory, it is noted that births have collapsed. In 2023, they amounted to just 72,300—about half the annual average recorded during the 20-year period from 1951 to 1970.

“The reasons responsible for this collapse are not only demographic, but are more broadly related to the social challenges Greece has been facing in recent decades,” the analysis observes.

Population decline by almost 500,000 people

Between 2011 and 2024, consistently negative natural balances (births minus deaths) were recorded, leading to a population decline of nearly 500,000 people.

The analysis also highlights that Greece currently has one of the lowest annual fertility rates in the European Union, with intergenerational fertility hovering around 1.3–1.4 children per woman (for generations born around 1980)—far below the replacement level of 2.07.

At the same time, Greece is an aging society: almost 23% of the population is over 65, and in 2023 the number of people over 65 exceeded those aged 0–14 by nearly one million. Childlessness is also rising, with about 1 in 5 individuals born around 1980 remaining without children.

The numerical increase in the Greece’s population between 1991 and 2011 is attributed almost exclusively to the rise in the number of illegal immigrants.

During the decade 2011–2021, many young Greeks (aged 25–34 and 35–45) emigrated abroad.

The analysis sought to highlight “other aspects of the demographic issue related to ‘under-generation,’ which are less about demography itself and more about the broader social challenges Greece faces today, particularly in the fields of youth migration and housing.”

Youth “flight” and housing challenges

“In Greece’s already burdened population structure, the current living context seems to be pushing young people to leave. These are crucial stakes if we wish to mitigate subnatality and limit the extent of population decline in the coming decades,” the analysis states.

It identifies three main reasons for youth emigration:

The search for employment that matches one’s level of education, with opportunities for advancement, fair earnings, and good working conditions, chronic systemic issues, such as lack of meritocracy, broader social conditions, including the absence of a safe and dynamic society.

Finally, the issue of housing has emerged as another major factor in recent years.

“We know that cohabitation among young couples increases the likelihood of having a first child and accelerates family formation. In contrast to other European countries, however, in Greece the average age of leaving the parental home, of marriage, and of having children has been rising. This, cumulatively and in combination with other negative factors, affects not only family formation and childbearing age, but also the total number of children that younger generations will have,” the analysis concludes.