Hello there. Well, for those of you asking —and rightly so— what the polls say about the government’s post-TIF image, have a little patience. A complete picture will be available at Maximos Mansion on Friday, because alongside the poll they’re also running focus groups. I do hear, of course, that the needle is moving upward, but how much (and for how long) remains to be seen. For now, Pierr is storming through the media (today he’s with Evgenidis on protothema.gr), while yesterday, after a meeting with families with many children, he extended the tax-free threshold up to €20,000 for large families, both salaried and self-employed.

OPEKEPE(2) – What Maximos will do

• Since there’s been much written (and reasonably so, because it’s a hot issue) about the second OPEKEPE case file that reportedly includes references to ten MPs —eight from ND— and how the government will handle it, I asked and found out. “So, we will vote to lift the immunity of any of our MPs named by the European Public Prosecutor as having criminal liability. Not for gossip and petty favors. After the immunity is lifted, it will be investigated whether they are guilty or innocent, period. Let me remind you that since 2019, when we took office, immunity has been lifted for some thirty MPs, and as you can see… we’re still here, functioning just fine as a government.” That’s that.

Adonis at Maximos

• Yesterday Adonis was seen entering K.M.’s office along with Sword Health CEO Virgílio Bento. This is a leading company —perhaps the number one in the world— active in the health sector, specializing in AI solutions, with a valuation surpassing €4 billion.

Gerapanitis vs. Cypriots Hardball

• Gerapanitis has been fuming since yesterday with the below-the-belt hits coming from Cyprus. The highlight? A “report” surfaced linking his father-in-law with the “rush” to get the project done, raising “ethical and political questions.” The Foreign Minister rushed to issue a ministry statement — unusual in itself — realizing that various interests opposed to the project have put him in their crosshairs. Interestingly, the Cypriot government has also bared its “teeth,” even though it’s the Cypriots who are mainly interested in the project — for which we’ve already spent a lot of national capital. I also gather that Cyprus’s Foreign Minister didn’t even bother to send Gerapanitis a message, despite his backing of the restart of the Cyprus talks, which had been dead. Overall, the vibe is sour…

The fake news campaign

• One of the projects that will be worked on systematically in the coming period is a big awareness campaign for students about fake news. A structured campaign is in the works, with events both inside and outside Attica, as well as school visits. The project is jointly run by Marinakis and Zacharaki, who will be making joint appearances.

Symeon’s open doors

• The first SYRIZA MP who clearly wants to join Tsipras’s party has come forward. We’re talking about Symeon Kedikoglou, who said “you’re knocking on open doors” when asked on a TV show (One). Symeon was frank and said it publicly, whereas others whisper it in private. However, Alexis’s office doesn’t want the first names accompanying the new party’s announcement —whenever it happens— to be “worn-out material.” They’re looking for fresh faces. Of course, as elections approach, it’s quite likely that figures from current SYRIZA will also be drafted in, as long as they give up their seats — just like Alexis will, if he sets the party wheels in motion.

The European Prosecutor and the Port of Piraeus

• I took a walk last week to the commercial side of the port of Piraeus, the so-called Container Terminal, and the sight was nothing short of striking. Thousands of containers piled up. I later learned there are 2,850 “boxes” blocked by Customs, each of which must be checked one by one. They won’t finish in three months, I’m told. And you’ll ask: why are they blocked? I dug into it. The case is as simple as it is complicated. A month ago, European Prosecutor Charikleia Thanos sent a list to all liner companies —that is, companies that ship containers— listing recipients of containers who were dumping electric scooters and e-bikes into the Greek market, even though those goods were meant for third countries. With this trick, they avoided paying duties. An investigation followed and prosecutions have been launched. 500 containers were seized. Then the new Customs Director-General issued an order that Piraeus Customs (the three customs offices have now merged into one) must stop any container suspected of holding goods that could end up in the market untaxed. Goods such as clothes, textiles, bags, shoes, e-scooters and bikes. Documents and invoices are being checked with a fine-tooth comb. The result? Due to both the orders and a lack of inspectors, 2,850 containers have already piled up at the port. From what I hear, customs officers, spooked by the scooter case, now stop everything. They check every container, import or export. Exports in particular face weeks-long delays, giving exporters headaches as deadlines are missed. Also, free space at the Container Terminal is running out, worsening delays. Port insiders tell me that first, the number of inspectors must be increased, while logistics officials will try to contact the European Prosecutor to find a solution — so the innocent don’t burn along with the guilty.

M. Tsamaz joins the Board of National Bank

• Now to more market news, starting with an item that will be announced soon. A new face —but a very familiar one to the market— is joining the Board of Directors of National Bank. That’s Michalis Tsamaz, selected to replace Nasos Zarkalis, who resigned. The latter stepped down because, alongside his role on National Bank’s Board, he was also chairman of National Insurance, which has since passed to Piraeus Bank. So, one man from the telecoms sector left, and another veteran of the same sector takes his place.

Aktor cancels deal with Prodea

• According to market sources, it seems the Aktor–Prodea deal for acquiring properties worth around €500 million will not go ahead, as Aktor’s management has reportedly canceled it. The developments are very fresh, and we should expect announcements in the coming days. Interestingly, the same circles say the cancellation is the right move, because in the current climate the deal would not have helped Aktor’s balance sheet. For the record, according to official H1 2025 figures, the group’s cash reserves stood at €246 million.

The shops took off Eleftherios Venizelos

• A goldmine for Athens International Airport (AIA) turn out to be its non-aviation activities at Eleftherios Venizelos. While revenues from aviation activities (airport charges, etc.) increased by 3.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to last year, revenues and other income from non-aviation activities reached €77.7 million, up 10.6% compared to the first half of 2024. As the listed company explains, this increase is mainly due to the strong performance of the new store concepts launched in mid-2024, the increase in passenger numbers—particularly from non-Schengen destinations with higher purchasing power—as well as the favorable comparison with the first half of 2024, given that last year was burdened by temporary closures due to extensive renovations. The bulk of turnover naturally comes from the shops (€50 million), while €11.6 million (up from €10.8 million last year) came from parking. The company notes, however, that in the medium term, revenue per passenger will come under pressure due to restrictions on available commercial space during the construction phase, which will gradually be restored as the new commercial sections of the airport expansion program come into operation. According to current forecasts, revenues from vehicle parking services for 2025 are expected to be moderately affected following the start of construction of the multi-storey car park in July 2025. However, this impact will be partly offset through targeted actions, such as expanding the outdoor parking areas at existing facilities.

Frangou and the $460 million deal

• Shipowner Angeliki Frangou is moving aggressively through Navios Maritime Partners, which has a fleet of 170 vessels of various types—dry bulk, tankers, and container ships, either afloat or under construction. Her latest move was to place—“to put in an order” as they say in shipping jargon—an order at a Korean yard for the construction of four container vessels, each with a capacity of 8,850 containers. The total cost amounts to $460 million. The ships are expected to be delivered between the second half of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028 and will be ready to use methanol as fuel. However, their main fuel will be oil, and scrubbers are being installed for that purpose. The ships have been chartered for 5.2 years at a daily rate of $44,100, with the charterer having the option to extend for one year. The deal adds total revenues between $335 million and $395 million, depending on whether the charterer extends the charter. Meanwhile, Angeliki Frangou is among the few shipowners of this size who openly express their views on current events. Recently, she argued that the reconfiguration of trade flows due to the war in Ukraine, attacks in the Red Sea, and new trade conditions strengthens shipping activity through longer distances and healthy demand. As a traditional shipowner puts it, “disruptions are to shipping what location is to real estate.”

The explanation behind Jumbo’s performance

• Jumbo is going against the recent trend, with buyers showing up for the stock. In two days, it has gained 5.4%, even though Athens has recorded losses close to -1% over the last three days. As a result, it came within a breath of €32 for the first time in a month. Recall that historical records stand at €32.48 for a closing price and €32.74 intraday. This year’s stock gains reach 25%, while the group’s market capitalization hovers around €4.3 billion, placing it 11th in the ranking of listed companies by market value. The recent outperformance is due to two positive catalysts. Last week, Jumbo announced an 8% increase in sales for the eight months from January to August 2025, continuing its practice of under-promising and over-delivering, indirectly boosting the stock. At the start of this week, Euroxx issued a report setting a target of €42 for Jumbo, i.e., 31.5% above current levels. Characteristic is the title of the brokerage’s report (“Tailwinds to manage the headwinds”), as any challenges are offset—or even more than offset—by favorable “winds.” In the latest development regarding the group, U.S. mutual fund New World Fund reduced its stake below 5%, specifically to 4.81% from 5.03% previously. Voting rights above 5% are now held only by Apostolos Vakakis with 16.42% and Fidelity Investments (FMR LLC) with 9.99%.

The fortnight of GEK TERNA

• Today, GEK TERNA’s management will announce—not in detail but via a flash note—the profitability of the first half. Full results will be released toward the end of the month, when the issuance of the new bond will also be announced. The Prospectus for the new bond is expected to be approved by the Capital Market Commission next week. According to AXIA’s estimates, first-half revenues are expected to reach €1.9 billion—an increase of 39.4% year-on-year—while adjusted EBITDA soars to €281 million (+62.7%). Construction activity shows revenues of €780 million, driven by the execution of major projects, while the concession of Attiki Odos and investment projects boost profit margins, with adjusted EBITDA in construction rising 45% and profit margin moving upward.

Wave of… child recognitions (what else will we hear)

• To tell you the truth, it was passed on to me as serious, but I think it’s nothing more than a joke. I believe some people probably wanted to have a laugh about the tax reform and spread it. They say that during the design stage of the reform, fears were expressed that many taxpayers would rush to “recognize” children in order to benefit from large tax exemptions, and the services were forced to run an exercise on the fiscal impact of such a scenario. In Greece today, families with three children are estimated at about 200,000, while large families number around 105,000, based on official censuses and large-family certificates.

Souda and the European cruise fund

• A contact of mine who attended the opening of the Thessaloniki International Fair last weekend overheard a discussion about the port of Souda and specifically cruise activity. I’m told that a fund of €15 million had been approved—this was the figure I was given—for cruise infrastructure works. However, the European Competition Commission canceled the funding, and the officials of the Port Fund, which is under the Prefecture, are trying to find a way forward, though it seems difficult.

Stock market: Marking time with eyes on France

• In Paris today, the top event is not yet another parade-demonstration by the “yellow vests.” It’s the €11.6 billion of French Treasury bills that need to be rolled over, and the interest rate required. Two more T-bill maturities follow, totaling €22 billion this month. And these are the “easy” ones: Treasury bills. Things will be much tougher for bond issuances. The Athens stock exchange tried yesterday to show indifference to French developments and opened with low volume and modest value of trades, managing to hold a positive sign (+0.61%) at 2,029.81 points. After noon, however, trading value grew, and the index came under pressure. Thus, the optimistic start turned into a struggle to hold on to gains. At 5 p.m., the General Index stood at 2,013.03 (-0.22%), and in the auction process corrected to 2,014.65 points (-0.14%). Final trading value rose to €232.21 million, but €41.1 million of that concerned pre-arranged block trades, ahead of next Friday’s triple witching at the Derivatives Exchange. Confirming the above, of the €232 million in transactions, €216 million involved FTSE25 stocks. With these tactical moves, closing prices have little meaning.

Spetses: Contract signed

• Spetses may have several problems we’ve mentioned from time to time, but efforts are also being made to overcome them. Yesterday was a bright day for the island, as Attica’s regional governor Nikos Hardalias signed the contract with the contractor for the restoration of the residence of national benefactor and benefactor of Spetses, Sotirios Anargyros. After a two-year delay due to appeals from rival companies, the time has finally come to begin the rescue of this unique mansion. The contract has a duration of 24 months, and as Nikos Hardalias said, in two years we expect the project to be completed with the quality befitting its history and importance.

Currency upheavals

• Until now, every major political crisis within the Eurozone was immediately reflected in the euro-dollar exchange rate. Things have changed. The real mirror of market concerns over what’s happening in France is the euro’s rate against the Swiss franc. The euro is losing ground against Switzerland’s “safe haven.” Large European insurance and pension funds have already significantly increased their exposure to Swiss assets, effectively “tying” their security to a country that seems to maintain independence from euro crises. All this recalls the 2010–2011 period, when every crack in the Eurozone led to massive inflows into Zurich. The dollar remains the global reserve currency, but in Europe the real internal “vote of no confidence” shows up against the Swiss franc. Banking circles in Athens and Frankfurt point out that some European groups have already begun to examine recapitalization scenarios “on paper.” If these signals escalate, the franc will become the first and most sensitive pressure gauge, long before we see deep changes in the euro-dollar rate. The 2015 lesson—when the Swiss central bank suddenly let the franc skyrocket—still haunts markets. History shows that when the euro is truly tested, it’s its relationship with the franc that reveals the depth of the crisis.

New times, new protagonists

• Back in the 1800s, it was the railway that brought change to capitalism, as it allowed faster transport of goods. In the 1990s, it was fiber optics that reshaped market balances through fast data transfer. In our time, it’s the “GPU racks”—the rapidly moving intelligence of artificial intelligence. This change of economic protagonists is also visible on Wall Street. We are witnessing a silent transformation of global capitalism: Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia today are worth over $11.8 trillion on Wall Street. The three giants account for 17.5% of the total capitalization of U.S. stocks, while the famed “Magnificent Seven” (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla) exceed 34% of the S&P 500. Never before has Wall Street seen so much value concentrated in so few hands. American tech companies are turning their power into global infrastructure, generating new forms of economic influence—GPU racks are replacing the rail networks of the past, big data is becoming the new energy source, and anything outside technology looks outdated. Technological hegemony sustains the upward trend but also tests the system’s endurance, with the real risk lying not in the smaller names, but in the shadow of the giants.