Rapid developments have been recorded in recent months across all hydrocarbon exploration concessions, because apart from the signing for ExxonMobil’s entry into “block 2” last week, negotiations with Chevron are simultaneously underway for the areas south of the Peloponnese and south of Crete.

According to information from the Hellenic Hydrocarbon and Energy Resources Management Company which is conducting the negotiations with the Chevron – Helleniq Energy consortium, the financial terms have been concluded and discussions have now moved to the legal part of the contracts. It is recalled that the two companies have been designated preferred investors for the four areas (South Peloponnese, A2, “South Crete 1” and “South Crete 2”) and the timeline foresees, after negotiations conclude and contracts are signed, review by the Court of Audit and then submission to Parliament for ratification.

More advanced developments concern the Ionian Sea, with the signing last week of the landmark agreement for ExxonMobil’s entry into the concession of “block 2” west of Corfu at the border with Italy’s EEZ — an agreement that opens the way for the first exploratory drilling in Greece in 40 years.

The agreement for ExxonMobil’s entry into “block 2” was signed within the framework of the intergovernmental transatlantic energy cooperation (P-Tec) which took place in Athens last week. During which the Minister of Environment and Energy, Stavros Papastavrou, stated this is a “historic opportunity” for our country, because if the existence of commercially exploitable deposits is confirmed, it creates the conditions for the country’s energy self-sufficiency.

Under the agreement, ExxonMobil acquires 60% of the consortium while Energean retains 30% and Helleniq Energy 10%. Next steps in this concession include — besides the required permits and extension of the exploration period expiring next March — re-evaluation of seismic data from the area collected in previous years and the investment decision to execute exploratory drilling costing $50 – $100 million. The “window of opportunity” to secure availability of the necessary drilling equipment is at the end of 2026 to early 2027, because during that period Energean has an option on the rig it has already secured for its activities in Israel.

If the exploratory drilling results are positive, new exploratory drilling will follow to assess size and eventually production drilling, with investments estimated around $5 billion for construction of extraction, processing and natural gas transportation facilities — with gas potentially starting to flow after 2030.

Initial indications are encouraging for two reasons: First, processing of seismic data so far “shows” that possible resources in the “Asopos” structure of “block 2” reach 200 billion cubic meters at a water depth of 850 meters and total depth 4000 meters below sea surface. And second, in Western Greece there is a confirmed petroleum system.

On the sidelines of the session, ExxonMobil’s VP responsible for international exploration activities, John Ardill, said interpretation of seismic data is also underway in the other two offshore blocks that the company participates in jointly with Helleniq Energy, west and southwest of Crete, in order to decide whether exploratory drilling will proceed there too — placing the timeline of decisions at mid 2026.

Particularly geopolitically important were the agreements signed within the P-Tec framework for channeling LNG from the US through the Greek system to countries in the region up to Ukraine. This plan positions the US as a main supplier in the region and Greece as a key transit hub as large volumes will pass through the Greek system. Also in cooperation with Greek shipping and the LNG carrier fleet — which US Energy Secretary Chris Wright (who participated along with US Interior Secretary Doug Burgum) made special reference to.

Prospects for the project now widen because beyond expected increased consumption in the region, additional needs are created by the gradual halt of Russian gas imports by end 2027 according to latest EU decisions.

According to Greek market estimates, in coming years natural gas demand in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to increase by 15-17 bcm annually, while another 15-16 bcm gap will be created by the halt of Russian gas. Greece can cover a significant part of these volumes because the export potential of the Greek system — with upgrades done and planned — will reach 10 bcm. That is one third of the region’s additional needs. Given the political support for the plan, the condition to further increase Greek exports in the region is the signing of commercial agreements. This began on Friday with the signing of the ATLANTIC – SEE LNG TRADE agreement (a joint company of the AKTOR group and DEPA Commerce) to buy LNG from US company Venture Global, one of the biggest LNG producers in the US. The same day, agreements were also signed with companies from Romania and Ukraine for resale of the gas.

As DEPA sources stress, the contract with Venture Global is the first long-term LNG purchase contract in the region, while at the same time the company will be the only one in the region that has a pipeline gas contract (namely for the TAP pipeline).