In a Eurozone struggling with low growth rates, Goldman Sachs sees Greece as remaining one of the few economies that continue to shape a positive narrative. The bank believes that in 2025 the country will keep growing at a pace above the European average, despite the fact that three factors — fiscal tightening, pressure from extreme weather events, and a milder boost from tourism — could under different circumstances act as a “brake.”

Goldman Sachs notes that the Greek economy is no longer supported by temporary factors. Strong investment activity, a stable labor market environment, and progress in the energy and infrastructure sectors create foundations that act as a counterweight to external shocks. Consumption remains resilient, while service exports — with tourism still dominant but no longer the sole driver — continue to support GDP.

Where the three “threats” for 2025 are found

Fiscal policy

The return to a stricter fiscal stance is a necessary step for stabilizing debt, but it inevitably limits direct support to demand. Nevertheless, the bank believes that the private sector is now in a position to absorb part of this slowdown.

Climate events

Recent natural disasters burden productivity and change priorities across entire sectors of the economy. However, investments in resilience, digitalization, and the energy transition are expected to strengthen the growth base, with the Recovery Fund playing an important role.

Tourism

The sector remains historically strong, but in 2024 it contributed exceptionally high gains, making it difficult to replicate such a strong positive shock in 2025. Goldman Sachs estimates that the Greek economy will no longer rely exclusively on tourism performance, but will move more evenly across other activities.

The bank places particular emphasis on the Greek Recovery Fund program, which it describes as one of the main reasons Greece remains ahead in terms of growth. The high absorption rate and strong participation of the private sector in energy, infrastructure, and green transition projects boost the investment rate and upgrade the country’s productive model.

Goldman Sachs’ analysis also highlights developments in the labor market. The rise in employment, greater participation in the workforce, and the gradual increase in productivity create an environment that allows the economy to grow without excessive pressure on costs.

The main conclusion of Goldman Sachs is that Greece has now strengthened its growth model to such an extent that even three potentially negative factors are not enough to “turn the ship around.” Growth momentum is maintained, structural indicators remain positive, and investment activity continues to serve as a shield against external risks. In an environment where the Eurozone will move at low growth rates, Greece continues to appear as one of the few truly bright exceptions.