The electricity market closes in December with an indicative increase in wholesale prices, which is expected to affect how providers will set electricity tariffs for January 2026. Specifically, the average price on the Energy Exchange through Dec. 26 moved higher compared to November, up about 5 percent so far, with demand and the power generation mix as key factors.

This development is expected to form the basis for the new tariffs to be announced in the coming days by suppliers, to lock in tariffs for the first month of the new year. This increase may be felt in the so-called “green” (variable) and “yellow” electricity tariffs, depending on the strategy of each company and its commercial policy.

The factors behind the rise

Electricity demand increased compared to the previous month as the weather was colder and heating needs increased, although there were no temperature extremes. At the same time, the energy mix changed: the share of renewables decreased, while production from natural gas – a more expensive source of generation – increased, “driving up” wholesale costs.

As a more expensive source of electricity, the price of gas is now higher than ever before.
These conditions created additional pressure on wholesale prices, which will be used as a reference for setting January tariffs. Providers take into account multiple factors, including market prices, market share targets and their own assessment of future market fluctuations, before announcing final rates.

What consumers should expect

For consumers, the current trend suggests a likely increase in electricity tariffs at the start of the new year, provided wholesale prices remain at higher levels. While large increases in generation prices may be partially or fully passed through to final tariffs, consumers are urged to closely monitor provider announcements and evaluate the options among the various tariff categories before choosing the right one for their needs.
In addition, the energy market remains volatile, with the split between renewables and conventional generation playing a key role in the overall cost of electricity for the public and businesses in the coming months.