Strong concerns are emerging in the energy market due to the war tensions in the Persian Gulf, as they are creating conditions for significant fuel price hikes in the coming days.

It is already estimated that at the pump, unleaded gasoline will rise by about 7.5 cents per liter to €1.83, while diesel is expected to increase by about 15 cents to €1.72 per liter, with the biggest increases anticipated toward the end of the week.

The pressure is linked to a new rally in international oil prices, triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude traded near $78 per barrel, having earlier exceeded $81 during the day, while refined product prices also recorded significant increases.

The market is closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of global oil trade passes. Uncertainty surrounding the operation of this critical maritime corridor has heightened fears of potential supply disruptions, pushing prices upward. Analysts estimate that if tensions persist for an extended period or if there is a serious disruption in oil flows from the region, international prices could even move above $100 per barrel.

The electricity market

At the same time, the crisis is already reflected in the electricity market. Greece’s wholesale electricity price has risen by more than 60% in just a few days, climbing from around €65 per megawatt-hour on February 27 to over €102 today.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices at the European TTF hub are also rising, recording an increase of over 20% and approaching €52 per megawatt-hour, while intraday prices even reached €65.

This development is particularly significant for the Greek market, as natural gas covers nearly 40% of the electricity generation mix. However, the impact on consumers may become more visible from April, provided the crisis continues to intensify. This is because electricity tariffs already announced for March are reduced by up to 34%, which for now is cushioning the burden.

Impact on consumers

The biggest impact is expected on tariffs linked to wholesale electricity prices — the so-called “green” and “yellow” tariffs — chosen by the majority of consumers. It is estimated that around 4.4 million households and businesses have opted for this pricing model, making them more vulnerable to market fluctuations.

Government response

Amid this climate of heightened uncertainty, the government remains on alert, closely monitoring price developments and considering measures to prevent profiteering, such as reinstating a cap on gross profit margins for fuels. At the same time, according to assurances from companies in the sector, the country has sufficient fuel and natural gas reserves, and there is no issue regarding supply security.

Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East have also mobilized European authorities. According to reports, a meeting convened by the European Commission on the Vertical Gas Corridor was ultimately expanded to examine the broader impact of the geopolitical crisis on energy markets.

The European Commission announced that the European Union’s Gas Coordination Group is already assessing the impact of the escalating conflict. The group includes representatives of member state governments, who are monitoring natural gas stock levels and supply security in Europe, while coordinating measures that may be required if the energy crisis worsens.

However, the trajectory of prices will largely depend on the duration and intensity of the crisis in the Middle East. In the event of prolonged geopolitical tension or significant disruptions to regional energy flows, international markets estimate that energy costs could rise even further, increasing inflationary pressures and placing additional strain on households and businesses.