Eurobank Equities analyzes the impact of a prolonged energy shock on the ecosystem of the Athens Stock Exchange, setting as its base scenario that Brent remains between $100 and $120 per barrel for at least six months.

In detail, what the brokerage firm states in its new report titled: “Greek Equity Strategy | Energy Shock Playbook”.

The energy shock scenario
The prolonged conflict in the Middle East has reduced supply in the oil market, while at the same time increasing risk premia in transport and insurance. The price of Brent is now moving decisively above $100 per barrel, amid disruptions in production and tanker movements due to the conflict. The risk is acute, as the Strait of Hormuz constitutes a structural “bottleneck” for global energy flows, with oil passing through it accounting for approximately 20% of global liquid fuel consumption.

In this context, Eurobank Equities examines the potential impact on Greek stocks under a regime lasting at least 6 months, characterized by:

1. Brent remaining persistently in the range of $100–$120/barrel.
2. Increased volatility in European natural gas and electricity prices.
3. A renewed “higher-for-longer” interest rate narrative, as energy inflation slows the path of disinflation.

Transmission channels
For the Greek stocks covered by the brokerage, it examines each company’s exposure through four channels:

Direct energy inputs: Where fuel is a key cost component (e.g. Aegean).

Pass-through of inflationary pressures: The main defense through contractual adjustments or pricing policy.

Interest rate sensitivity: Companies with floating-rate debt or short-term refinancing needs.

Demand shock and consumer confidence: Critical for Greece, due to the importance of inbound tourism.

Impacts by sector and stock
Refineries (HelleniQ Energy, Motor Oil): The obvious winners in a regime where Brent trades above $100 per barrel. They benefit from favorable product prices, stronger refining margins (crack spreads), especially in diesel and kerosene, and positive inventory valuation effects.

Aegean & Autohellas: Face the most evident pressures. Efforts to adjust fares carry the risk of triggering demand elasticity. Eurobank Equities notes that Athens International Airport (El. Venizelos) is less dependent on traffic, as the aviation segment is regulated and mainly based on inflation.

Banks: A mixed picture for the sector. Higher interest rates support net interest income (NII), but part of the benefit may be offset by higher cost of risk (CoR) if macroeconomic uncertainty persists.

Real Estate: Enjoys protection through inflation-linked rents, however higher yields weigh on property valuations.

Industry & Energy: Energy-intensive industries are exposed to fuel costs, but Titan is well positioned to pass them through to prices. For PPC, the rise in Brent translates into higher wholesale prices, acting positively, with the main risk being potential regulatory intervention. Metlen also benefits through its integrated natural gas production and trading platform.

The market reaction
Markets reacted swiftly. The General Index is down by around 7% since February 26 (with a maximum drop of 10%), a move aligned with typical corrections (12–15%) in similar geopolitical shocks. The intensity of the decline in Greece was slightly greater than in Italy (6%) and other European markets (5%), reflecting the strong rally that had preceded it.

It is noteworthy that the stocks that saw the strongest sell-offs were those with the best recent performance (mainly banks: -11%), and not necessarily those directly affected by oil (with the exception of Aegean/Autohellas).

According to Eurobank Equities, once uncertainty subsides, positions will normalize and risk appetite will return. The brokerage sees room for gradual repositioning in banks, while identifying attractive value in companies that are protected or benefit from volatility, such as GEK TERNA, PPC, Metlen and the refineries (HelleniQ Energy, Motor Oil).