Hello, we have now reached the… “broken” holiday (due to it falling midweek) of March 25th and the Annunciation. For those worried about the weather, there’s no need, as it will gradually improve starting tomorrow, and the parade in Athens at least looks like it will take place in temperatures of around 20°C. We are counting three weeks until Easter; for now, tourism does not appear to be affected by the war, but this holiday is almost purely a Greek affair and does not coincide with Catholic Easter, so no clear conclusion can be drawn. In any case, let’s be honest: if Trump does not stop within the next 3–4 weeks, it is almost impossible for more serious side effects not to begin appearing in the global economy—first in energy and then across the entire cycle, including tourism, which the country relies on from April to November. Let me repeat, as the whole world hopes: may this situation come to an end soon. In Athens, the situation is being closely monitored. Today, the Prime Minister will announce some initial measures, such as the fuel pass, as well as specific actions to relieve citizens from rising prices in diesel, ferry transport, and fertilizers. However, I am told that they will not reduce the excise tax as Sánchez has done. When I asked “why?”, I received the answer: “We don’t think it’s right to implement a measure that benefits a shipowner and a day laborer equally. Let Sánchez do it—so what? Is he such a great prime minister and we didn’t know it?” Additionally, these measures by the Spanish prime minister go against EU legislation, and his country will be called upon to pay fines in Europe.

Elections…

I asked again—since the scenario of a prolonged war and major disruption is no longer unlikely—whether Mitsotakis is reconsidering elections, given that in the polls his party is “flying.” I got the following answer from my top-level sources: “The president says that he represents stability and responsibility in the political system. If, amid the great instability of war, I call elections now, I will have done the exact opposite. I will create greater instability in the country at a time of crisis.” Fair enough, the reasoning is understandable—but if we are facing a “new Ukraine,” then we are talking about something entirely different. Or aren’t we?

KYSEA – Weapons

Beyond the economy, there is also the actual war, which will be discussed at the KYSEA meeting at 11:00. The general sense from the Prime Minister’s office is that this situation will last quite some time, and even if it were to stop soon, the balance would remain extremely fragile. The meeting is also expected to approve significant weapons systems, such as the “Achilles’ Shield” (an anti-aircraft defense dome), currently being discussed in Parliament.

Minimum wage exercise

In this climate, the government is also expected to announce the new minimum wage this coming Thursday. There appears to be little appetite for bold moves, given that the market is in a wartime condition. In any case, Kerameus’ recommendation would have been moderate, since businesses are already burdened with increased labor and non-labor costs. The goal remains for the minimum wage to reach €950 next year; it currently stands at €880. The increase is expected to be split into two phases (€35 this year and €35 next year). Based on the central scenario, it will rise to €915 gross—possibly €920 with rounding.

Thessaloniki and Heraklion

The Prime Minister’s schedule includes a one-day visit to Thessaloniki this Tuesday, where he will inspect several projects (Flyover, Port, etc.). Planning is now being done day by day depending on developments, as seen in the cancellation of his Australia trip for March 25th. However, he is expected to visit Heraklion, Crete next Wednesday, April 1st, for ND’s fourth pre-congress, along with site visits to various projects.

Kyriakou discusses acquisition of Attica Group

According to reports, a new round of discussions has begun regarding Piraeus Bank’s sale of Attica Group’s ferry fleet. Investment interest comes from Theodoros Kyriakou, acting within the framework of the “K Group” agreement with the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) for a €1 billion investment fund. Kyriakou has reportedly hired Goldman Sachs, which has brought a team to Athens to work on the deal. However, discussions are ongoing and no conclusions can yet be drawn. Piraeus Bank aims to sell all or part of its stake, though previous efforts have not succeeded. The price must match the bank’s valuation, and talks are taking place in a particularly challenging environment for the transport sector.

Rising interest rate fears slow housing credit

Under current conditions, the possibility of the ECB raising interest rates in April is considered quite likely. The war in the Middle East is already showing early signs of changing trends in credit expansion. The first signs are in retail banking, especially housing loans, at a time when efforts were being made to revive the sector. Household budget uncertainty is leading customers to postpone borrowing decisions, raising concerns that a prolonged war will have a broader impact beyond retail banking.

National Bank hires from Piraeus for BancAssurance

As the National Bank prepares to announce its BancAssurance plans, it has begun recruiting key personnel. Previously, BancAssurance operations were handled via Ethniki Asfalistiki’s network. Now, ahead of an agreement with Allianz, the bank is reorganizing, which appears linked to the departure of Anastasia Nikolopoulou from Ethniki Asfalistiki.

Airlines under pressure due to war

Airlines are facing multiple disruptions due to developments in the Middle East. Beyond flight cancellations and suspensions, ticket prices are rising due to a doubling of aviation fuel costs, and route planning for the coming months—including summer—is being reshaped. United Airlines’ CEO Scott Kirby warned of fuel costs doubling in the past three weeks, potentially adding $11 billion annually in expenses. Despite this, demand remains strong, with the past 10 weeks being the strongest in bookings in the company’s history. The airline plans short-term route cuts over the next six months, focusing on less profitable routes.

Fessas and stake building in Fourlis

After Quest Group (Fessas) increased its stake above 5% in Fourlis Holdings in late February, market activity has intensified. Block trades exceeding 2 million shares have taken place, and speculation suggests Fessas may be increasing his stake further, possibly nearing or exceeding 9%.

Konstantopoulou, Lloyd’s, and the $1.8M watch case

Reuters reported a complex legal case: on March 4, Zoe Konstantopoulou appeared in an Athens court defending a 45-year-old man with multiple passports who spent nearly a year in a high-security Greek prison. Lloyd’s of London accuses him of embezzling $1.8 million to buy luxury Swiss watches. He claims he was fired for refusing to sign off on fraudulent accounts. Greek prosecutors found no evidence of fraud on his part. Now, a Hiscox executive faces charges of false testimony. The next hearing is set for April 21.

The “forgetful” CEO with 200 uninsured cars

One company was found to have over 200 uninsured vehicles, with debts nearing €100,000. This stands out in a large-scale operation by Greece’s tax authorities to identify uninsured vehicles and unpaid road taxes using modern data systems. Over 300,000 notices have been sent, signaling stricter enforcement.

Dorian’s move discussed on Wall Street

The recent move by John and Alexandros Hadjipateras via Dorian LPG has drawn attention. Securing $62.9 million in financing for a new vessel demonstrates access to cheap capital, strong timing, and careful risk management. The vessel is dual-fuel and ammonia-capable, positioning it for future regulatory changes. With 28 ships already, the company is expanding selectively, focusing on quality over quantity.

Panagiotidi’s next move in bulkers

Ismini Panagiotidi is quietly planning the next expansion of Nasdaq-listed Icon Energy. While tanker markets dominate headlines, midsize bulk carriers are seeing profitable growth. Supply chain disruptions increase demand for shipping distances, boosting profits. Icon’s fleet is positioned to benefit, with strong Q1 figures and increased liquidity enabling further expansion.

The quiet visit that put the port of Volos on the geopolitical map

A month may have passed since Fang Qiu’s visit to the port of Volos, but in reality, the interest is only now beginning—because in port diplomacy, the “aftereffects” are often more revealing than the wave itself. At first glance, the visit had all the expected elements of a typical formal meeting. However, for those who read between the lines, the real message lay elsewhere: in the timing. Because Volos is not Piraeus—and that is both its disadvantage and its advantage. A new prospect is emerging, not for a “new Piraeus,” but for a flexible regional hub that can operate either complementarily or even competitively within a more multi-centered port system. And this is where geopolitics comes in. China, through the Belt and Road Initiative, does not simply invest in ports—it invests in value chains, logistics corridors, and soft influence. The ambassador’s reference to technology, green energy, and the digital economy was no coincidence. It reflects the new narrative of Chinese presence: cleaner, more innovative, but equally strategic. However, it is clear that every port that “engages” with Beijing is indirectly engaging with Brussels and Washington as well. And this is where the behind-the-scenes politics become interesting. The visit to Volos did not cause noise when it happened—but it is causing it now, in hindsight. Why? Because it fits into a quiet redrawing of Greece’s port map. Regional ports such as Volos, Alexandroupoli, and Patras are becoming testing grounds for geo-economic balances. Volos may not yet be on the radar of major investment deals, but it is already on the radar of major strategies.

Which stocks were most affected by the FTSE and Stoxx rebalancing

The simultaneous rebalancing of the FTSE Russell and Stoxx indices became a key reference point for the Athens Stock Exchange last week. Turnover approached €500 million, with most trading taking place during auctions, confirming the importance of these changes for foreign institutional portfolios. The reshuffles mainly involved upgrades of stocks to higher categories, boosting the market’s international visibility. The biggest winner was CrediaBank, which surged by 12.2% to €1.4 following its inclusion in the FTSE Emerging Europe Large Cap. Trading volume was also strong, reaching 3.35 million shares. At the same time, the upgrade of the National Bank to the Stoxx Large Cap index made it the only systemic bank to close Friday’s session with gains. Metlen also benefited from its inclusion in Stoxx indices, rising 2.5%. AVAX gained 2% after joining the FTSE Russell Small Cap, with over 1.7 million shares traded. Qualco, included in the FTSE Emerging Europe Small Cap, rose 1.8% with increased turnover. Among index weighting changes, Alpha Bank was the most affected, with trading value close to €120 million and volume at 38.5 million shares. Piraeus Bank followed with €79 million turnover and 11.34 million shares traded.

The question surrounding Motor Oil

This afternoon, after the market closes, Motor Oil’s management will present its 2025 results. It is widely known that the fourth quarter of last year was exceptionally strong. Analysts estimate adjusted EBITDA at €359 million (+107% year-on-year) and adjusted net profits at €215 million (compared to €43 million a year earlier). The market expects a dividend of €1.35 per share, bringing total distribution for 2025 (including interim dividend) to €1.70. The analyst call will inevitably focus on supply chains and the Strait of Hormuz. There has been an almost complete disruption of crude oil flows from the region, significant price increases, and higher shipping costs. At the same time, refining margins have risen globally. HelleniQ Energy has already informed regulators that it is replacing Gulf cargoes with other crude types. Analysts will ask whether Motor Oil has secured alternative supply—and at what cost.

Cosmote Telecom invests in new data center infrastructure

Cosmote Telecom is moving beyond fiber optics and telephony, making strategic investments in new infrastructure to support AI needs for businesses. Under CEO Nebis, the company is implementing a plan to provide data center infrastructure aimed at meeting growing AI demand, offering business cloud services including GPU-as-a-Service solutions. This service uses NVIDIA technology in collaboration with Hewlett Packard, allowing businesses access to high computing power without investing in their own equipment. In practice, this reduces access costs, enabling companies, public institutions, and research bodies to develop AI models, process big data, and create new services. Cosmote has already made significant investments in data center infrastructure supporting modern cloud architectures.

GENOP-DEI has definitively buried its past

The 40th electoral congress of GENOP/DEI-KHE not only confirmed DAKE – Allied Trade Unionists as the leading force with 22 seats (two more than in 2023), but also pushed far behind the once-infamous “militant unionists” who would shut down electricity supply at will. EAME secured 7 seats, Agonistiki Synergasia 6 seats, PASKE just 1 seat, while Agonistiki Syspeirosi has been effectively marginalized. DEI’s trajectory since 2019 has also brought a form of “maturity” to its labor union representation.

The gold of the new era is sulfur

Global headlines focus on the impact of the Middle East conflict, highlighting oil, natural gas, and tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, there is another major risk in the supply chain: sulfur. Nearly 50% of global sulfur production comes from Middle Eastern countries. Sulfur is converted into sulfuric acid, which is essential for producing phosphate fertilizers. These fertilizers literally feed the planet—from U.S. soybean and corn fields to Europe’s potatoes. Bloomberg notes that while the Middle East controls only 20% of global phosphate trade, it holds 50% of the sulfur reserves needed to produce them. If the conflict continues and sulfuric acid supplies are depleted, the effects on the supply chain could become “exponential.” That is only one side of the coin. The Financial Times highlight another major risk: shifts in global capital flows. Geopolitical instability is reshaping investment portfolios, priorities, and foreign direct investment flows. For Greece—dependent on fertilizer imports, tourism, and foreign investment in real estate and energy—both risks are immediate.

They are raising interest rates because they have no other choice

The Bank of Greece has lowered its growth forecast to +1.9%, down from the previous estimate of +2.4%. The ECB has reduced its expectations for growth in the Eurozone even more sharply, to +0.9% from +1.4%. The conclusion of central banks is that the war will eventually end, but high prices will remain. For this reason, they are now planning interest rate hikes. They aim to curb consumption, even though they know that inflation is driven by external factors (such as energy) rather than demand. On the other side of the Atlantic, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is now a 31% probability of interest rate hikes in 2026, compared to zero just a week ago. The probability of a rate cut in the dollar this year (by a quarter point) has dropped to 6.1%. Here in Europe, markets are now pricing in three (!) interest rate hikes by the ECB within the year, with all the implications this has for risk premiums, company cash flow valuations, and financing costs. They are trying to contain cost-driven inflation by suppressing demand—because they have no other option.