Hello and have a good Holy Week, although the weather seems to be spoiling things a bit with temperatures and sea conditions, though nothing is certain—we’ll have a clearer picture from tomorrow. Let’s now move on to the serious issues, namely the judicial entanglements, starting with the most important one… that of Ioanna Touni, who was put in custody, even if only for a few hours, because she was filming (poor thing) in a shop the man who had made revenge porn about her! And so it is proven that in this country you can never be sure what awaits you the next day. Let’s now move to another judicial-political adventure we’ve been experiencing since last week with OPEKEPE2, which was sent to us by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. So, a few observations from what we have read so far:

Clientelism and the “Mimis Papangelopoulos doctrine”

A. From the direct dialogues and references to politicians, there is not even a hint—nor from the judges who compiled the case file—that any politician was taking money for themselves. Yes, they were asking for favors, administrative deviations in some cases illegally, in others not, on behalf of their farmer-voters, but not for personal financial gain. Political gain, yes, since MPs from rural areas are involved, mediating with the head of OPEKEPE for clients-voters—Serres, Larissa, Trikala, etc. B. The judicial official who drafted the case file strongly recalls the logic of the late Mimis Papangelopoulos: “take a prosecution and go to court to find your justice.” Most cases involve phone calls (and emails) requesting favors of the kind that no MP in the history of the Greek parliament has failed to make since the establishment of the Greek state, especially when they are part of the government. Let’s not pretend ignorance or innocence about this—not only PASOK members who governed with such dealings for 20 years, but especially the old right-wingers who “invented” the party-state as spoils. The Karamanlis family, still immersed in favors even today; the Pavlopoulos circle, who appointed around 250,000 party affiliates during the “K.K. Rafina” government; and Samaras, who until he fell out with Mitsotakis was calling the Maximos Mansion and ND ministers asking for a favor a day. I’m not saying that these conversations about favors are appropriate for a 2026 government, nor do I deny that some may have criminal dimensions. But there isn’t a single legal expert who has read them and doesn’t say that, at most, one or two cases might justify prosecution among the 20 MPs mentioned.

Government under hostage?

C. Another dimension of the issue is the tactic followed by the European Public Prosecutor’s Office since last summer, which almost seems deliberate in trying to destabilize a government. Granted, there are technical issues with transcriptions, statutes of limitations, and substantiation of offenses, but do they really not understand what is happening with this approach? Don’t they realize that this drip-by-drip method is shaking a government and interfering in the political life of a member state? What would have happened if, instead of this piecemeal approach, they had sent everything at once so everyone would know what lies ahead?

Case files in installments

In any case, if the government is anxious, the European Public Prosecutor’s Office will send more volumes in the coming period. For example, it is rumored that in May OPEKEPE3 will arrive, including 5–6 more MPs—hence the preemptive removal of Deputy Minister Kellas from Larissa during the reshuffle.

Maximos Mansion: all wrong…

Finally, let’s turn to those responsible, on whom this— in my opinion—completely wrong handling of the case since last summer’s first installment (OPEKEPE1) will fall. Let’s recall a more serious recent case, that of Tempi. About 13 months ago, Mitsotakis hastily gave an interview (to Sroiter) in which he almost accepted rumors that the EDOASAM report (a committee-parody for the tragic accident) claimed there was illegal xylene in the train wagons, causing an explosion that killed people. The government then entered a huge tailspin—simply put, it was on the verge of collapse. The Maximos Mansion, as it turned out, clearly had wrong information or assessment and believed something that did not exist and was fabricated by Zoitsa, President Maria, and their circle, who are determined to bring down Mitsotakis. Proof came three months later when a video showed that the wagons supposedly full of illegal xylene were empty—and this was obvious since they were open wagons, like flatbeds. Before that video, all this evidence already existed in the case file in the form of photographs. When the accident occurred, police officers in the presence of a prosecutor photographed everything and included it in the Tempi file, as expected. Yet no one told the Prime Minister the obvious, no one informed him so he wouldn’t publicly accept false theories. So, without comparing the Tempi xylene case with the current OPEKEPE case, I believe the handling now is also amateurish, and it’s not right to lump together half your parliamentary group because they made calls to serve their voters—even if improperly. A favor-seeker is not the same as a thief.

The address

Mitsotakis has spoken with many people these days and heard many things. I’m told he has in mind to shape a political framework, as he must present a narrative both to citizens and to ND members who are being attacked in TV panels and in local communities. I understand he won’t announce any tangible initiative but will instead highlight the reforms in the deep state carried out in recent years and outline future goals. After all, the agenda of the next elections will include such reforms, like placing OPEKEPE under AADE, which hasn’t yet been implemented since no applications or payments have been made this year.

Hatzidakis–Maximos

Yesterday on SKAI, Hatzidakis made a meaningful distinction between cases of MPs included in the file, logically noting that, for example, the case of Tsiaras with a €190 irrigation channel and Vartzopoulos sending a text asking if something can be done is not the same as someone accused of a felony. Marinakis had said something similar on Saturday, stressing that there should be no witch hunt. However, the Maximos Mansion was reportedly concerned by Hatzidakis’s remarks, with a source saying “this is not our line,” adding that Marinakis has stated immunity will be lifted for all.

The trap with lifting immunity

Speaking of ND MPs, many—especially those with rather trivial cases in the file—are concerned after seeing the European Public Prosecutor’s approach. Consulting their legal advisors, they understand the risk that after their immunity is lifted post-Easter, the Prosecutor may not call them for testimony but proceed directly with prosecution, even for misdemeanors. They would then have to go into elections with charges hanging over them, although the Maximos Mansion is reassuring that, for the overwhelming majority, there will be no issue with candidate lists. Nevertheless, there are whispers that many MPs are considering not supporting the lifting of immunity for colleagues they believe have done nothing wrong and merely conveyed requests, as any of them would.

Meeting on industrial energy costs

Today at the Ministry of Energy, Papastavrou, Theodorikakos, and Theodoropoulos will meet to discuss measures to reduce industrial energy costs and support investments for energy upgrades.

Alpha Trust: the market’s new deal

Moving to market news, we start with an interesting development concerning the “holy grail” of asset management, Alpha Trust, which had been under siege from potential buyers. Who recently published preliminary financial statements? Alpha Trust. Why are such statements usually published? To end the closed period during which major shareholders and management cannot sell shares. Phaedon Tambakakis had been discussing Alpha Trust but not selling; now he has changed course and is selling without discussion.

New extension for the Olympic Equestrian Center

The Hellenic Corporation of Assets and Participations has granted a third extension to the timeline for the new tender to develop the Olympic Equestrian Center in Markopoulo, Attica. The previous extension was in mid-March, the first in early February. Originally, bids were due on March 27, 2026, but after the extensions, the deadline is now June 30, 2026. According to the tender terms, development will take place through granting surface rights over the property for 99 years. A previous tender was canceled (as in 2014) after objections, including from the Hellenic Equestrian Federation, and the Council of State did not approve the development plan. The plan included turning it into a theme park, preserving equestrian sports in part of the area while developing sports, mild commercial, and tourism activities elsewhere. Built for the Olympic Games, the center occupies a massive 1,000 stremmas (about 100 hectares), likely due to the… immense popularity of the sport in Greece, but has since largely fallen into disrepair. About 600 stremmas are exploitable for investors and include multiple arenas, stables, offices, parking areas, and even a helipad.

Central bank losses and Bank of Greece dividend

While major central banks worldwide are reporting billions in losses, the Bank of Greece is holding its 93rd Annual General Meeting with a positive result and dividend for its main shareholder, the Greek state. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s cumulative losses reach $245 billion, largely due to paying high interest on reserves while holding low-yield bonds bought during zero-rate periods. The same applies in Frankfurt: the ECB recorded losses of €1.254 billion for 2025, reduced from €7.944 billion in 2024 due to lower net interest expenses, but still the third consecutive year of losses, so no profit distribution to eurozone central banks. The Bank of Greece, however, is in a different position. Net income for 2025 reached €880.8 million (up from €436 million), with profits at €257.7 million. The general assembly is expected to approve a dividend of €0.6720 per share and a transfer of €244.4 million to the Greek state. Public sector deposits earned €353.4 million in interest, bringing total benefit to over €600 million. The Bank of Greece did not implement large-scale bond purchase programs, thus avoiding the heavy burden of low-interest debt now affecting other central banks. Its reserves reached €21.3 billion at the end of 2025, up from €15.8 billion a year earlier.

The waters that came and the asterisks on the half-billion project

The torrential rains of recent days have left behind a strong impact. On the one hand, they caused serious damage and, unfortunately, loss of human life, highlighting the intensity of the phenomena. On the other hand, they proved lifesaving for one of the most pressing issues of the Attica basin: water scarcity. EYDAP’s reservoirs were significantly reinforced, as about 90 million cubic meters of water were added compared to last year’s poor April, of which more than 20 million entered the “tanks” in just the past week—a valuable breath for the country’s largest urban area. Nevertheless, experts remain cautious. As they point out, a temporary improvement is not enough to signal the end of the alarm, since the sufficiency of water resources can only be ensured if rainfall is sustained and consistent. One concern, therefore, is the continuation of these valuable rains. The other concerns EYDAP’s projects. People with direct knowledge of developments place several “asterisks” around the major half-billion-euro investment announced last year, when the country was experiencing the “torture of the drop.” This is the “Evrytos” project, the big card for Attica’s water supply, which is already facing resistance. The connection of the Karpenisiotis and Krikelopotamos rivers to the Evinos reservoir is planned through two successive tunnels, 14 and 6 kilometers long respectively, with a diameter of 4 meters and a flow capacity reaching 27 cubic meters per second. The tunnels are designed at such an altitude that they draw water only when river levels rise due to rainfall, thus ensuring the necessary ecological flow. Once completed, the project is estimated to secure up to 200 million cubic meters of water annually, an amount that could change the landscape for Attica’s water supply. However, local communities do not view the project favorably—and this is far from unnoticed. Municipalities such as Karpenisi and Agrafa, along with productive bodies, are already warning of environmental burden and serious impacts on the local economy and development. These objections, concerning the partial diversion and transfer of water from the Karpenisiotis and Krikelopotamos to the Evinos, are shaping a conflict scenario expected to intensify as the project moves toward implementation. In this context, officials with knowledge of developments estimate that such a project is unlikely to proceed before the elections. Thus, while nature has provided a valuable boost to water reserves, the major challenge of Attica’s water supply remains open and closely tied to political balances, social reactions, and critical decisions for the future.

The profits of Metropolitan College

Metropolitan College / Alphabet Education—part of BC Partners’ portfolio—aims to strengthen its position, also through synergies with Keele University (which last year became the first public British university to receive official operating permission in Athens under the framework for non-state universities). For the financial year 1/7/2024–30/06/2025, the company recorded turnover of €54.27 million and post-tax profits of €12.97 million, which are not comparable to the immediately preceding period (1/1/2024–30/6/2024), as that was a shortened fiscal year following alignment with the academic calendar. For the current year, management—with Konstantinos Rodopoulos as chairman and Christina Paraskevopoulou as CEO—estimates “particularly positive prospects,” expecting substantial revenue growth driven by increased demand for its educational programs. Further contributions are expected from the introduction of new postgraduate programs, synergies with Keele University of Greece NPPE, and expansion through attracting international students. Last year already saw further growth in the number of active students compared to the previous academic period, and the same has occurred this year. It is recalled that in 2025 Metropolitan College established its subsidiary Keele University of Greece NPPE, with 100% participation, which received an operating license in August 2025 from the Ministry of Education under the framework governing non-state universities.

Genco’s counterattack and criticism of Diana over weak returns

The clash between Genco Shipping & Trading and Diana Shipping, owned by Semiramis Paliou, is not just another shipping dispute. It resembles a classic Wall Street control battle in purely financial terms. Genco is playing its strongest card: performance. With a 213% total shareholder return over five years versus 37% for Diana and 75% for the S&P 500, its defensive line is clear: “If it works, don’t change it.” On the other side, Diana is attempting an aggressive takeover at a price that Genco’s management considers inadequate. Two rejected offers, the latest at $23.50 per share, suggest pressure rather than negotiation. The real stake, however, is not the price but the model. Genco has built a narrative of low leverage and high dividends—a profile rewarded by Wall Street in uncertain times. The warning that a change in management could erode this strategy translates simply into risk to yield. Behind the scenes, Diana’s accusation of “entrenchment” is typical in proxy fights. But Genco’s response shifts the battleground: it’s not about positions, but about capital returns—and in that field, numbers serve as defense. The battle is now moving into a purely institutional arena: who can convince shareholders they can better manage the same asset base.

The image and substance of Greek shipbuilding activity

Questions arise about how some port operators appear to interpret things differently in practice. Market insiders wonder how strong business activity and profitability in Greece align with the choice to procure tugboats from abroad, specifically from Turkey. Some even argue that, at the same time, a Greek-origin image is being projected. Meanwhile, Onex’s initiative to proceed with a domestic tugboat-building program shows that an alternative approach exists. The question, therefore, arises: are these simply different strategic choices, or a contradiction that ultimately affects both the image and substance of Greek shipbuilding activity? The tensions seem likely to intensify behind the scenes of the revival of Greece’s shipbuilding industry.

How Greeks on Wall Street build trust with investors

At Costamare Inc. and Safe Bulkers Inc., the message from across the Atlantic is clear: Greek shipowners active on Wall Street know that investor trust is built with cash—and above all, consistency. Among New York analysts, Costamare, owned by Kostis Konstantakopoulos, has long been considered one of the most “disciplined” dividend stories in shipping. Its latest announcement surprised no one; on the contrary, it confirmed that the company continues to operate with predictability, repeatability, and priority on shareholder returns. In a container market that has seen strong fluctuations after the pandemic, the signal it sends is that it has the visibility needed to support its cash flows. Meanwhile, Safe Bulkers, owned by Polys V. Hadjiioannou, operates in the more cyclical and often more volatile dry bulk environment. However, maintaining dividends on preferred shares shows management’s intention to “lock in” an investor base seeking stable income, even when freight rates are not at their best. In Wall Street terms, this is an attempt to balance risk: higher volatility in the underlying business, but stability in capital returns.

Pappas reads the Middle East map differently

At Star Bulk Carriers, owned by Petros Pappas, it seems they have begun reading Middle East maps differently—not nautical ones, but geopolitical ones. The passage of a second vessel through the Strait of Hormuz did not go unnoticed by Wall Street analysts. Not because it was an operational feat, but because, as they quietly say, “someone made a call before raising anchor.” At a time when the Strait of Hormuz functions more as a geopolitical filter than a simple sea route, such moves are not made without coordination. The Stardust may be just another Kamsarmax in the company’s fleet, but it indicates that Tehran is not acting under a blanket deterrence approach. On one hand, Iran leaves small windows of normality in a critical energy artery; on the other, companies like Star Bulk cautiously test the limits of this “controlled tolerance.”

A windy Sunday

Yesterday, Sunday morning, winter left behind a small record. The wholesale electricity price at the Hellenic Energy Exchange (ENEX) dropped to historic lows, €31.18 per megawatt-hour. During the night, strong winds boosted wind farm output significantly. Demand, typically low on a Sunday—with industry idle and businesses closed—created a surplus of production, which, combined with low demand, led to a dramatic price drop (from €70.29/MWh on Saturday and €129/MWh on Friday). If Greece still relied on lignite—the old model some nostalgically recall—the price would be around €150/MWh. However, there is also a factor explaining why such prices are not permanent for Greek consumers: Greece’s interconnection with energy-intensive neighbors (Bulgaria, Romania, Italy), which absorb excess Greek production but, during periods of high demand, export expensive energy back. This is a structural issue of the European grid for countries surrounded by energy-intensive industries. A contrasting example is Spain, which, with mild interconnections and a large wind and solar base, consistently records lower wholesale prices annually than Greece. For Greece, it is an urgent priority for energy storage to deliver quickly—batteries that will store the nighttime wind to power the economy on Monday morning.

Greek robotics shows its strength

Three days of “open house,” equipment worth €10 million in full operation. Automation in industry is a one-way street. In a few days, Gizelis Robotics will open the doors of its facilities in Schimatari, Boeotia, for a three-day Open House Exhibition dedicated exclusively to the future of sheet metal processing. The company is the newest member of the Gizelis SA group, one of the oldest manufacturers of sheet metal processing machinery in the world, with exports exceeding 80% of its production to 55 countries. It has evolved into the largest robotics systems integrator in Greece. It employs 140 highly skilled workers and is growing at a rate of 40% for 2026. Every construction bears the signature “made in Hellas.EU,” which differentiates it in a market dominated by Asian and Central European companies. At the Open House, hundreds of visitors—industrialists, entrepreneurs, academics from universities, polytechnics, and technical schools, as well as politicians—will watch live demonstrations of the Robobend system for robotic bending and welding, as well as offline programming software applications. E. Gizelis says that companies implementing digital production transformation can achieve up to +50% additional machine operating time, at least -10% lower maintenance costs, and +30% improvement in production quality.

Stagflation: the “stag” is the most dangerous part

In about two weeks, on April 29, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet under unusual pressure. At its last meeting in March, the ECB sharply revised upward its inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.6% from 1.9%, while lowering the eurozone growth forecast to +0.9%. This combination—higher inflation, lower growth—has already put on the table the word no central banker wants to utter: stagflation. In their charts, central bankers see the supply curve shifting left and upward. Prices rise while output is squeezed. This scenario does not resemble previous demand-driven inflation shocks, such as the post-pandemic overheating of 2021–2022. A potential increase in euro interest rates cannot “cure” oil shortages and the “supply shock.” Nevertheless, Barclays and JP Morgan predict up to three interest rate hikes by the ECB this year, with the first possibly on April 29, while markets price an 88% probability of an increase. On the other side of the Atlantic, Powell has rejected the term “stagflation,” keeping open the possibility of only one rate cut in 2026, provided inflation declines. Morgan Stanley insists the Fed will proceed with cuts after the summer, noting that the tightening of financial conditions already equates to an 80-basis-point rate hike. On both sides, the problem is not the “flation” but the “stag”—a trap with no obvious exit.

The alternative route for Saudi oil

A 1,200-kilometer pipeline, built in the 1980s as a “Plan B” for the worst-case scenario, is now at the center of the global energy crisis. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline connects its oil fields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. It is currently operating at full capacity, about 7 million barrels per day. Crude exports from Yanbu reach about 5 million barrels daily, while another 2 million feed Saudi refineries. Normally, 20 million barrels per day—20% of global consumption—passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia had prepared for decades for exactly this scenario and activated its plan within hours of the first attacks. The pipeline is a safety valve but cannot replace the massive volumes that used to pass through Hormuz. Tankers loading at Yanbu must cross the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a route exposed to threats from Yemen’s Houthi forces. Brent has risen about 55% since late February, while WTI closed at $111.54, marking its largest absolute daily increase since 2020. JP Morgan forecasts prices of $120–130 in the near term, with the risk of exceeding $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May.

Nasdaq, Oracle, and the questioning of Artificial Intelligence

The Nasdaq index has fallen -10.9% from its peak, moving beyond a simple correction. Tech stocks are under pressure from Trump-era tariffs that continue to create uncertainty in supply chains, as well as from doubts about whether investments in Artificial Intelligence will eventually deliver the expected returns. At the same time, Oracle’s 5-year CDS (Credit Default Swaps) have risen to record levels, 198.18 basis points, surpassing the previous record of December 2008. The cost of insuring against a potential Oracle default has quadrupled since mid-2025. With about $120 billion in bonds, Oracle is the largest non-bank issuer, and its CDS are among the most actively traded in the investment-grade market. In other words, Oracle’s CDS are not just a bet against one company—they are also the most “liquid hedge” against the AI bubble as a whole. In February alone, Oracle issued $25 billion in bonds to finance infrastructure, bringing its total debt to around $120 billion. Today, markets are asking whether Artificial Intelligence will ever generate enough returns to justify this avalanche of debt. In equity markets, stocks answer “yes.” Oracle’s CDS say, “we doubt it.”