-Hello, we’re wrapping up the column for Easter today, Holy Thursday, with wishes for safe, calm, and lovely holidays for everyone until Easter Tuesday, when we’ll be back. Of course, the first and best piece of news of the day is the ceasefire in the Middle East war — temporary in formal terms, but let’s hope permanent. If the initiative by various sides to end the war “bears fruit,” we will all be able, in our daily lives and especially in our work, to hope that everything will return to normal.

OPEKEPE: Quarrel and Wi-Fi
-I’ll leave you for Easter today with a very spicy revelation, answering two questions about OPEKEPE that almost everyone I’ve spoken to in recent days keeps asking me. First, how is it possible that a “signal came through” to the relevant ELAS service for the lawful surveillance of the OPEKEPE administrator’s phone from 2021 onwards, and not a single soul was found to “tip it off further” so they would stop asking for favors via the landline. Because if you haven’t figured it out, the Police bug (Internal Affairs) was listening in on OPEKEPE during the ND government. So, I asked one of my sources and they replied that the official in charge of the bug wasn’t speaking at the time (they were on bad terms) with the ministry’s leadership. Nice, right? And they say the “blue” government is a… deep state that controls everything — they’re more like Laurel and Hardy… The second thing people were asking me is why they were talking on landlines, since from regular lines nowadays you don’t even order… delivery. Well, it’s simple, my source told me: “OPEKEPE didn’t have Wi-Fi back then or it was broken and not working — one of the two, I can’t swear which.” Fantastic, right? P.S.: And another question raised by the more initiated: Excuse me, they say there’s a party going on with EU funds and hundreds of millions are flying around us via new intertwined companies and middlemen — what are the European prosecutors dealing with? With emails, sheep, and cattle that together don’t even add up to a million in damage?

The reception of the MPs
-I spoke with several ND MPs involved in the OPEKEPE case these days, and many of them feel they are being dragged through the mud and thrown into the meat grinder over ridiculous cases. They’ve gone back to their constituencies, expecting to see what kind of reception they’d get. And yet, despite appearances, I hear the public has been particularly warm, as these MPs appear to have shown interest in their requests and tried to shoulder the burden to find solutions to the absurdities of the administration or the closed doors of a dysfunctional organization like OPEKEPE, which would often flag you for checks and then you’d wait 2–3 years to see any money. What did you expect — we’re in Greece…

The Parliamentary Group
-In this climate, discussions are multiplying about convening the ND Parliamentary Group after Easter. It will definitely happen — Vice President Hatzidakis also left it open yesterday — but the right timing is being sought, meaning we should move a bit away from the discussions about lifting parliamentary immunity, etc., which will turn into a full-blown circus along with the opposition parties.

The polls on minors
-The measure concerning the ban on minors’ access to social media, which you read about yesterday before Mitsotakis announced it, was an easy win for the government, at a time when it only had bad news to manage. That’s because, based on polling data available to the PM’s office, the regulation has approval from 80% of society — across parties and across all age groups. Therefore, it’s a widely accepted measure that had been delayed due to the necessary technical preparation.

Talks with lawyers and the regulation
-One reason Mitsotakis was quite protective of ND MPs in his address, despite opening this discussion about the incompatibility of being both minister and MP — which was quickly “walked back” — is that last weekend he spoke with several lawyers. Many of them are legally advising individuals involved in the case and conveyed to the PM’s office their assessment of how weak the case file is regarding many of the people included. I’m also told that if prosecutorial authorities drag their feet in procedures after immunity is lifted, the government may introduce a regulation to accelerate judicial processes for political figures, so that no shadows remain. After all, it’s not pleasant to go into elections as a defendant — that is, if the prosecutor has filed charges against you — even if the case concerning you is rather baseless…

Ceasefire under terms… of control – The invisible “hand” in the Strait of Hormuz
-On paper, the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran is presented as a turning point. But in the corridors of the shipping market, the feeling is different. “Nothing is over, it’s just been put on pause,” say senior shipping executives. Behind the official announcements, the model taking shape in the Strait of Hormuz remains tightly controlled. Sources familiar with the crossings speak of an informal “approval” system, where Iran has the final say, determining who passes and when. Behind the scenes, the issue of fees is now openly discussed — approvals reportedly reaching up to $2 million, in yuan or even cryptocurrencies. “This isn’t a market opening, it’s flow management,” notes a Greek shipbroker, adding that several companies are considering alternative routes, even at higher cost, to avoid uncertainty. At the same time, Donald Trump spoke of an American contribution to easing navigation congestion. However, as market players say, “no one has yet seen what that means in practice.” On the contrary, what is being observed is that operational reality continues to be shaped by local actors and military balances, with informal communication channels playing a decisive role in transit approvals. The market reaction, with oil falling below $100, is mainly attributed to the release of cargoes that had been trapped, not to a real restoration of flow. Traders speak of a “technical release,” while noting that the supply chain remains disrupted and dependent on fragile balances. In shipping offices, the picture is even more revealing. Dozens of shipowners are maintaining a wait-and-see stance, despite the formal lifting of the blockade. Around 1,000 vessels are still moving under restrictions or waiting for instructions, while crossings are selective and based on priorities that are not always commercial. War risk insurance premiums remain high, discouraging new voyages, while many charterers are requesting flexibility clauses in case of renewed complications. At the same time, reports of ongoing strikes in various parts of the Middle East reinforce the climate of distrust. “The tension hasn’t disappeared, it’s just spread out,” comments an experienced broker, stressing that geopolitical uncertainty has now been priced into both markets and decisions. Behind the scenes, the prevailing assessment is clear: the ceasefire doesn’t change the rules of the game — it simply freezes them temporarily.

Jumbo: Romania remains a “thorn” despite a strong start to the year
-At the end of the month, specifically on April 28, Jumbo’s 2025 financial results will be announced, but Vakakis’ management is already providing investors with a picture of how the chain is performing in the first quarter of the current year. Based on this update, Jumbo is running with growth close to +7.3%, significantly above the management’s annual sales growth target for 2026, which is set at 5%. According to analysts, Greece and Bulgaria continue to show positive momentum, while Cyprus is also maintaining an upward trend despite pressures in certain markets. By contrast, Romania continues to lag, as macroeconomic and fiscal conditions are negatively affecting consumer behavior. AXIA–Alpha Finance, among other things, focuses on the group’s strategy to acquire already operating leased stores, and in this context, the purchase of a store in the Military shopping center in Bucharest is seen as another step in strengthening its real estate segment, expected to gradually improve efficiency and returns. Finally, in valuation terms, Jumbo is trading at around 9 times estimated 2026 earnings and 5.5 times EV/EBITDA — levels that remain attractive for a company with steady revenue growth, strong cash flow generation, and a consistent investment strategy. The risk of further stock decline is considered limited by AXIA–Alpha Finance, with the current valuation offering a sufficient margin of safety even under more conservative scenarios. In any case, the performance of the Romanian market, the seasonal slowdown after Easter, and geopolitical developments are key factors that will continue to shape the short-term outlook.

AS Company’s warning due to China
-Staying in retail, we turn to the well-known AS Company, which posted a strong set of financial results for 2025, with sales up 16.38% (to €36.1 million) and EBITDA up 56.3% (to €8.1 million), also boosted by the sale of investment properties in Crete. However, in its financial statements, the company warns that developments related to the war in Iran are expected to negatively affect transport costs, as more than 70% of its imports come from China. At the same time, key suppliers in China have already indicated intentions to increase product prices, citing rising energy costs. Thus, under current conditions, and if the ceasefire collapses and the conflict drags on, AS Company’s management estimates that the gross profit margin could decline by 2% to 5%.

On 15/6 Greece repays €7 billion early from the first memorandum
-In yesterday’s auction of three-month Treasury bills, the interest rate rose to 1.95% from 1.78% previously — a small increase reflecting broader market uncertainty. At the same time, however, the three-month Euribor in the interbank market stands between 2.10% and 2.13%, i.e. 15–18 basis points higher than the auction rate. In simple terms, the banks that bought the T-bills are losing money. Banks participated with excessive bids (overbidding) and effectively bought at a rate lower than what they would have earned by simply placing their funds in the interbank market. Already, in the secondary bond market, the same T-bills are priced at 2.05%. Why did they do it? Because Greek government securities are extremely useful as collateral, and in an environment of uncertainty, the quality of collateral has value that doesn’t show up in the interest rate. At the same time, the Public Debt Management Agency is acting with the calm of an issuer that isn’t in a hurry. It has already covered €4.3 billion out of this year’s €8 billion borrowing needs and is preparing a bond issuance next week. It doesn’t need liquidity, but wants to maintain market presence. The most important news, however, lies elsewhere. On June 15, Greece will proceed as planned with the early repayment of €7 billion in bonds from the first memorandum. Unaffected by the turbulent market conditions, the country will demonstrate consistency in its commitments and significantly reduce the Public Debt that was born at the worst moment in modern Greek history.

Ten Brinke’s “attack” and… energy real estate
-Not one, not two, but six new companies were established yesterday by Ten Brinke Hellas. Specifically, the Greek arm of the Dutch multinational real estate group, which maintains a strong presence in the domestic market, proceeded with the creation of the single-member public limited companies TenGrand Collection, TenOikos, TenSummit, TenPlatinum Properties, TenLuxe, and TenSpace. All are headquartered at Ten Brinke’s offices on Karneadou Street and focus on construction works for residential (and non-residential) buildings, business consulting, holding company services, investment services, real estate transactions, etc. The initial share capital of each company is €25,000 and is covered by Ten Brinke Hellas, represented by Fotis Gioftsios. Their management includes Albert Ten Brinke as Chairman and CEO, Fotis Gioftsios (Vice Chairman), and Theofanis Stratopoulos (member). The… allure of real estate, however, has not left Giorgos Kalavrouziotis of the Eunice Group, active in the energy market, indifferent either. Thus, yesterday saw the establishment of Eunice Real Estate M.A.E., aimed at real estate transactions and management, brokerage services, financial advisory services, and more. The initial share capital amounts to €25,000, paid by Eunice Green Energy, represented by Giorgos Kalavrouziotis, who has also taken over the management of the new company.

Part 1: Greek shipping on the front line of national defense
-With a recent presidential decree, Greek shipowner Aris Theodoridis was proclaimed Honorary Rear Admiral and Reserve Officer, marking the historic relationship between Greek shipping and defense. The donation of €35 million for the creation of the Maritime Heritage Park “Odysseus – The Greeks and the Sea” in Floisvos, Palaio Faliro, highlights the sea as a link between the economy, education, and national identity. The park will operate as a living space for education and the promotion of maritime heritage, strengthening national maritime awareness. At the same time, the donation by Angelakos (Hellas) S.A. for a new CT scanner and a Medical Oxygen Production Unit at the Naval Hospital of Athens upgrades the medical infrastructure of the Armed Forces. Rear Admiral Sotirios Moraitis emphasized that the new capabilities reduce patient hardship and save significant resources. Evangelos Angelakos recalled the timeless bond between the merchant fleet and the navy. The Minister of National Defence, Nikos Dendias, praised shipowning families for their ethos and patriotism, calling on others to support the Armed Forces.

Part 2: Laskaridis brothers, Ioanna K. Martinou and Nikos Kosmatos
-Greek shipping is being repositioned as a “strategic partner of defense, where economic strength meets national responsibility.” This phrase first brings to mind Panos Laskaridis. Honorary Rear Admiral of the Hellenic Navy, sponsor of the frigate “KIMON” and president of the Aikaterini Laskaridis Foundation, he has established himself as a reference point for a new, practical form of benefaction toward the Armed Forces. The donations of the Laskaridis brothers, Panos and Thanasis, are neither fragmentary nor merely for show. From the state-of-the-art V-BAT drones in ASDEN and diving watches for the Underwater Demolition Command, to the “KYKNOS” program worth over €23 million for upgrading “S”-type frigates and the fleet support vessels, the impact is measurable and operationally critical. In the same spirit falls the construction of a new squadron building at the Hellenic Air Force Academy in Dekeleia, in cooperation with the Hellenic Air Force General Staff, covering a real need for tomorrow’s Air Force officers. In this context, at the end of 2025, Ioanna Konstantinou Martinou was proclaimed Honorary Captain of the Hellenic Navy, following the donation of a navigation simulator to the Naval Cadet School by the Athina I. Martinou Foundation, as well as the reconstruction of a 1,000-square-meter top floor at the Navy General Staff. Also, in mid-January, shipowner Nikos Panagiotis Kosmatos was proclaimed Brigadier General (ret.) of Cavalry–Armored for his long-standing contribution to national defense needs, and especially for his generous contribution to the modernization of the Evelpidon Military Academy library. Because, as it was said, the country’s defense is not only a matter of weapons, but also of knowledge.

VENERGY ramps up in international shipping with $2 billion in newbuildings
-In less than a year, VENERGY Maritime of Vyron Vasileiadis has committed investments in newbuildings reaching $2 billion, if all six options are exercised. The program includes a total of 24 vessels on order and an additional 6 options, covering everything from MR and LR2 tankers to feeder container ships, while it already has three vessels in the water. Most recently, V.V. entered the large tanker segment (suezmax), signing an order for two 158,000 dwt vessels at the Chinese shipyard Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding, with an option for two more, scheduled for delivery in 2029–2030. Each vessel costs approximately $82 million and will be equipped with scrubbers for cleaner fuel consumption and improved energy efficiency. At the same time, the company exercised an option for two additional LR2 vessels at New Times Shipbuilding, bringing their number to six, while also proceeding with two MR vessels at K Shipbuilding in South Korea, for delivery in 2028. The concentration of six LR2 vessels creates significant economies of scale, strengthening the company’s presence in long-haul refined product transport. The overall picture shows a shipowner who is not satisfied with small steps but is building a diversified and environmentally modern fleet, aiming to reach 33 vessels once all deliveries are completed. V.V. proves that the new generation in Greek shipping can combine vision, determination, and strategy, establishing a dynamic presence on the global map of oil and product transportation.

A TACO with a strong Greek flavor
-The TACO investment strategy delivered once again. For those who don’t remember, Trump Always Chickens Out. Markets determine the President’s behavior, not the other way around. The TACO strategy was born during the “Tariff War” of 2025 and since then has proven to be the most profitable short-term tactic in international markets. You buy during the panic, you sell on Trump’s “victory.” The ceasefire in Iran was interpreted as a win for the POTUS. The Athens Stock Exchange, Euronext Athens, proved to be an excellent conduit for this logic. The General Index recorded gains of 6.58% with “rebalancing” transactions of €624.6 million, and with the banking index leading the rise with a jump of +10.7%. The ceasefire in Iran and the upgrade to developed market status acted as enhanced fuel for the rally. With the outbreak of the war in early March, the General Index had plunged -5.75%, the market lost all 2026 gains, and capitalization decreased by €8.5 billion. The market now enters a four-day Easter break carrying these two exceptional gifts in its luggage. But TACO has a hidden flaw worth remembering: it only works when both sides want to exit the crisis. In tariff disputes, Washington’s opponent was GDP. In Iran, the opponent has different motivations.

Full recovery on the Athens Exchange – “War losses” erased
-The “locomotive” of yesterday’s rally was undoubtedly the banking sector, which, as mentioned above, recorded a historic jump of 10.7%. At the top of the performance table was Alpha Bank, which with a staggering +13% and trading volume approaching 29 million shares, set the tone for a full recovery. Investors rushed to reposition themselves in systemic banks, believing that the easing of geopolitical risk unlocks the true value of financial institutions. Beyond the banking rally, the session was marked by historic highs in flagship large-cap stocks. GEK TERNA and Sarantis reached new peaks, confirming the strength of their fundamentals. GEK TERNA hit €38 for the first time, while Sarantis closed near €15.5, at an eight-year high. The Holy Wednesday session marks a turning point for Athens Avenue. The speed with which the shocks of war were absorbed shows that the domestic market now appears to have the depth and resilience to manage crises, quickly returning to its core scenario: convergence with mature markets. Finally, in historical perspective, yesterday’s jump was the strongest since November 9, 2020, when the announcement of positive COVID-19 vaccine results by Pfizer/BioNTech triggered an explosive rally in the Athens Exchange, which had closed with a double-digit daily gain (+11.46%).

Central banks prefer gold over U.S. bonds
-For the first time in 30 years, gold has overtaken U.S. bonds in the preferences of central banks. The New York Fed yesterday published a chart showing that from $3.1 trillion in 2021, foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries have fallen below $2.7 trillion. It is notable that the pace of decline has accelerated recently. At the same time, gold now represents 24% of global central bank reserves. This is the first time since the mid-1990s that U.S. bonds stand at 21%, i.e. below gold. In 2015, Treasuries represented 33% of reserves, while gold was just 9%. What the NY Fed records is a structural shift with three possible explanations. First, the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 permanently changed perceptions of what is considered “safe.” It proved that U.S. bonds can also be frozen by decision of Washington. Second, Trump’s tariff ideas and the uncertainty surrounding the dollar’s role as a reserve currency strengthened the need for hedging. Third, the war in Iran and instability in the Gulf have made gold more attractive as a “neutral” reserve asset. Gold has no issuer, no counterparty, it cannot be frozen. Consequently, for markets, the real concern is not fluctuations in gold prices. Markets are concerned about the shrinking demand for U.S. bonds — and this implies higher yields, more expensive dollar borrowing, and an America paying dearly for the policy choices of its leadership.