The Summit is being held at a time when the Alliance is seeking to translate the commitments made in The Hague in June 2025 into concrete military capabilities, with an emphasis on strengthening its deterrence and defence posture, accelerating defence production and enhancing the interoperability of allied forces.

Defence spending and implementation of the 5% commitment

A central topic of discussion will be the implementation of the commitment to increase total defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, of which 3.5% will be dedicated to purely military expenditure, while the remaining amount will be invested in measures that strengthen defence and resilience.

According to diplomatic sources, the Alliance aims for the Summit to send a message of unity and progress, as several allies have already significantly increased their defence spending. However, differences remain regarding the timetable for implementing these commitments. Greece is already among the countries meeting the new target, alongside Poland, the Nordic countries and the Baltic states, while other allies have yet to present a credible adjustment plan.

Particular attention is expected to focus on remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to reiterate the need for the immediate implementation of the 5% commitment, calling on European allies to assume a larger and fairer share of responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence.

In the same spirit, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stressed that Washington expects all allies to follow a “credible path” toward the 5% target, emphasizing that the objective is not merely to increase defence spending but to convert it into real military capabilities.

NATO transformation and greater responsibility for European allies

The discussion on defence spending is directly linked to the broader transformation of the Alliance and the gradual transfer of greater responsibility for Europe’s conventional defence to the European allies and Canada, without calling into question the United States’ commitment to Article 5.

Diplomatic sources say that talks on adjusting the U.S. military presence in Europe are now progressing in a constructive atmosphere. According to those sources, the United States recognises that the process must move forward gradually, as some capabilities can be immediately replaced by European allies and Canada, while others will require a longer period of time.

At the leaders’ level, technical details or specific troop numbers are not expected to be discussed. Instead, discussions will focus on the overall political direction of the process, while operational matters will continue to be examined at the military level.

Military aid to Ukraine

The continuation of military support for Ukraine will also be a key subject of the Summit.

According to the draft declaration already approved by the Permanent Representatives of NATO’s 32 member states in Brussels, leaders are expected to commit to providing €70 billion in military assistance in 2026 and maintaining support at at least comparable levels in 2027.

Diplomatic sources note that several countries making significant contributions to Ukraine’s military support wanted the introduction of country-specific quotas. However, the proposal failed to gain the necessary consensus.

The total amount of aid over the two-year period is expected to reach €140 billion, covering military equipment, training and other military assistance. This figure includes the €60 billion already committed by the European Union for military assistance in 2026 and 2027 through its new €90 billion loan to Ukraine.

As a result, the additional commitments NATO allies are being asked to undertake over the same two-year period amount to €80 billion. This sum also includes purchases of specialised U.S.-made weapons systems—primarily air defence systems—which only the United States can supply through the Priority Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) programme.

The U.S. Ambassador to NATO also announced that there would be “substantial announcements” regarding continued support for Kyiv, stressing that “the European side must assume a greater share of the burden,” since “this is a war being fought on the European continent,” while making clear that the U.S. commitment remains unchanged. He also emphasised that a clear message must be sent to Russia that the war must come to an end.

Defence industry and operational capabilities

Special emphasis is also expected to be placed on strengthening the Alliance’s defence industrial base.

On the sidelines of the Summit, the NATO Industrial Forum will take place, focusing on increasing the production capacity of allied defence industries, accelerating procurement, and strengthening cooperation between governments and the defence industry.

According to Alliance officials, the need for faster production of ammunition, air defence systems and other critical military assets is a fundamental prerequisite for ensuring that increased defence spending translates into real military capabilities.

At the same time, particular importance is being placed on accelerating innovation and the faster integration of new technologies into allied armed forces, as military officials note that the credibility of deterrence now depends not only on the level of spending but also on the speed at which those resources are transformed into operational capability.

A short declaration

According to diplomatic sources, the final declaration of the Ankara Summit is expected to be particularly brief, following the model of the Hague Summit.

The text will reaffirm the Allies’ commitment to collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, while the Summit’s main political message will focus on strengthening the Alliance’s actual military capabilities, ensuring a fairer sharing of responsibilities among Allies, and preserving transatlantic unity in the face of today’s security challenges.