Good morning. Let me start with a development that didn’t surprise anyone familiar with the European political scene, but which certainly caused concern: the rapid rise of the far right AfD, which has effectively brought Merz’s party to its knees. The AfD’s French equivalent, the National Rally, is on the march, and it remains to be seen whether Le Pen’s rise to the French presidency can be prevented, given that polls now put her party first, for the first time, even in second-round scenarios for the 2027 elections. Don’t look too far afield, though, because in Greece the right and far right parties beyond New Democracy are already polling at a combined 20 per cent, and we’re waiting to see what Samaras’s party will do. That party, of course, sits within this right wing space and further along still, in the far right. Admittedly, you might point out that Greece’s Left and far left parties poll seven to eight points higher, but those figures are clearly on a downward trend. In fact, in that 28 to 29 per cent combined figure for the Left and far left, I’ve included our much loved leader Alexis to get the number that high. Take him out, though, and the Left’s numbers would fall by half or more. Since we’re on the subject of Alexis, he’s due in Thessaloniki to smooth over the row about safe deposit boxes and taxes, via the “interplanetary database” that’s supposed to capture the global wealth of Greeks. Our leader Alexis is nothing if not flexible on these things. He swaps shirts from leftist to politically correct with ease.

Mitsotakis in Kastellorizo

After the Thessaloniki International Fair, K.M. has thrown himself into travel: yesterday it was El Alamein, today it’s Paris, where he’ll take part in Macron’s Space Summit at the Grand Palais. But the trip that will genuinely stir things up is the one he plans to make on Friday, when he heads to Kastellorizo together with the party’s secretary, Konstantinos Kyranakis. This weekend also marks the celebrations for the island’s liberation, exactly 83 years since the destroyer “Admiral Kountouriotis” sailed into the harbour and Kastellorizo became the first part of Greek territory freed from German occupation. This is clearly Mitsotakis’s practical answer both to Turkey and to those here who claim he receives ultimatums from Kalin inside Maximos Mansion and leaves them unanswered.

Bratakos

I’m told that yesterday Bratakos was trying to find out how it “leaked” that Mitsotakis was furious about his comment on the small reduction in advance tax payments. “Live long enough, my friend, and you’ll see clover,” he’d said after the Thessaloniki fair. Everyone in the party knew that Mitsotakis himself had called him and given him a dressing down over the phone. I’m puzzled as to why he was so put out by that, though. What did he expect, applause? As if he’d be sitting in that chair at all without the party’s backing.

The President, “Off the Line” and the Marxists at Pedion tou Areos

After opening the Book Fair at Pedion tou Areos, Konstantinos Tasoulas took a long walk among the publishers’ stands, from the equestrian statue of King Constantine I to the fountain. “Good business to you,” he wished everyone, but he also found time for longer conversations with publishers such as Giorgos Chronas of Odos Panos, with whom he discussed Cavafy, and Rachel Kapon of Kapon Editions, on the subject of history books. He was given so many gifts from various publishing houses that the bags almost didn’t fit in the car, and his exchanges at the more left leaning stands were particularly memorable. When the President stopped at the Marxist Bookshop stand, a polite, bearded man welcomed him and said, “Mr President, we’re on the other side here.” The President replied, “But that’s what makes it interesting. There’d be no interest if we were all on the same side.” They then had a brief chat about the election result in Saxony. A little earlier, at the “Within the Line” publishing stand, the President told the young salesman, “I’m within the line myself, but I do like those who are off the line, too.” “We know,” the young man replied with a smile. At another stand, the President struck up a conversation about the Odyssey. “You know, Odysseus was ‘Nobody’, while Polyphemus was, let’s say, the ‘much famed one’. And yet Nobody, the unknown man, defeated the famous one. That’s a lesson about the fragility and limits of fame.”

Deutsche Telekom’s CEO meets Nebis at Maximos today

Turning to market news: Deutsche Telekom’s CEO, Tim Höttges, and the DT board member responsible for Europe, Dominique Leroy, will call at Maximos Mansion today together with OTE’s chairman and CEO, Kostas Nebis, to meet Mitsotakis straight after his morning coffee meeting. Deutsche Telekom’s leadership will brief the Prime Minister on OTE’s move to the Telekom brand. The change, which officially took effect yesterday, isn’t limited to rebranding, since folding OTE into Telekom’s international ecosystem is expected to strengthen synergies in technology, products and commercial partnerships.

Interim dividend from Motor Oil

The interim dividend payout to Motor Oil shareholders is falling into place. Yesterday the company’s six month financial statements (1 January to 30 June 2026) were filed with the General Commercial Registry “with a view to distributing an interim dividend to shareholders from profits for the 2026 financial year.” In the recent earnings call, management was asked about dividend policy given the strong profitability, and indicated a slightly higher interim dividend along with a higher final dividend.

Gonou army camp: investors unimpressed

Pencils in hand and no shortage of reservations, prospective investors are poring over the draft concession agreement for developing the former Gonou army camp in Thessaloniki. The document reached them late on Thursday evening, just before the Thessaloniki fair, and the initial reaction is positive but far from enthusiastic. Interest in the project remains strong, both from the Thessaloniki Port Authority, controlled by Ivan Savvidis, and from the Goldair, AKTOR and Trade Estates consortium backed by businessmen Kallinikos, Exarchos and Fourlis. Even so, both investment camps have already begun a detailed cost analysis, since the initial impression is that a good many of the concession’s risks are being passed on to the private partner. The main sticking point doesn’t appear to be the upfront price, which is due to be paid in two instalments, five million euros at the outset and another five million later, but rather everything else attached to the contract. After all, the lump sum represents only part of the total financial consideration, since rent and an annual percentage of revenue tied to each bidder’s business plan will be added on top. What causes the greatest concern is the sheer scope of outstanding matters being passed on to the future concession holder. Expropriations, archaeological issues, licensing, unauthorised occupation and the possible removal of squatters together make up a package of liabilities that bidders consider very difficult to price accurately. As they see it, the private party is being asked not only to finance, develop and run the project, but also to resolve problems that largely depend on public services and administrative procedures.

What worries the developers

What’s worrying prospective investors is the prospect of finding themselves chasing permits, expropriations and agency decisions without any real control over how quickly outstanding issues get resolved. These aren’t merely theoretical risks, either, since they can lead to major delays, affect financing and completely change an investment’s economics. When such risks can’t be costed from the outset, they usually translate into either more conservative bids or a higher required rate of return. Those interested acknowledge that some of the financial terms look more favourable compared with previous tenders, such as the one for Fyli, but reckon that isn’t enough to offset the uncertainty around the remaining terms. The initial impression is that the plan could serve as a basis for discussion, but needs substantial revisions to become genuinely financeable and attractive. The message to the contracting authority, then, is that investment appetite exists, but it isn’t a blank cheque. Bidders are asking for a more balanced distribution of risk between the state and the private sector, along with clearer commitments on tackling the administrative and ownership related outstanding issues. The deadline for submitting comments and observations has been set for 23 September, though an extension is thought likely given the tight timeframe. The state will then have to decide which objections make it into the final text.

Athens airport: a flight every minute and 20 seconds in August

Over August’s 31 days, Athens International Airport recorded 32,799 flights (arrivals and departures combined), meaning there was movement on one of its runways every minute and 20 seconds. The 4.03 million passengers mark a new monthly record for the airport, which will see its food and retail revenues soar. And as is well known, there’s no 15 per cent return cap on non aeronautical revenue.

Aegean’s records

Since we’re on the subject of the airport, Aegean posted a new all time record last July, surpassing two million passengers in a single month for the first time, and analysts are starting to see brighter prospects for the airline’s share price. Eurobank Equities notes that 2026 is shaping up as a tough year for Aegean because of higher energy costs, but views this as more of a temporary state of affairs. Behind this year’s pressure on earnings lie some strong underlying strengths: Aegean’s dominant position in the Greek market and at the Athens hub, its expanding international network, the lengthening tourist season and, above all, its newer, more efficient fleet. The bigger picture, in essence, is that things improve from 2027, as the gradual lifting of maintenance restrictions on GTF engines will allow greater capacity to return, while rising passenger traffic, better absorption of fixed costs and a larger share of more efficient neo aircraft are expected to boost margins. With strong liquidity, healthy cash flows and a dividend yield of 5 to 6 per cent, the brokerage maintains its “buy” rating and a target price of €15.90, seeing overall potential returns of around 32 per cent from yesterday’s close, which, it should be noted, wasn’t a good one: the share fell 2 per cent to €12.05.

MEVGAL’s €234 million

Kostis Hatzidakis’s recent visit to MEVGAL’s plant in Koufalia brought fresh detail on the company’s trajectory. Management has set this year’s turnover target at €234 million, up from €206.7 million in 2025, with exports exceeding 50 per cent of sales for the first time. Meanwhile, the major investment in the new factory, which we reported on around a month ago, has now risen from €150 million to €160 million, with the project under way and the new plant set to more than double the company’s production capacity once complete. The visit had a personal dimension for the deputy prime minister, too. His wife, Popi Kalaitzi, grew up in Koufalia and was a MEVGAL scholarship recipient at Anatolia College, a story she recounted with visible emotion at the dairy firm’s 75th anniversary event. Hatzidakis made a point of recalling it during his visit to Koufalia, speaking of his “emotional bond” with the company.

National Bank hits a new record against the tide

Bucking the broader correction sweeping the banking sector, which has pulled back from its multi year highs, National Bank’s share showed resilience in yesterday’s session. It closed higher, at €17.60, marking an 11 year record, its highest level since 25 November 2015, when it closed at €19.42. The move pushed the bank’s market capitalisation above the €16 billion mark. The main driver behind this standalone rally was positive analyst coverage. Morgan Stanley set a target price of €19.30, while Euroxx went further still, at €22, providing plenty of “fuel”. Meanwhile, growing clarity around the bank’s corporate developments is boosting investor confidence. NBG also announced yesterday that it will publish its nine month results on 5 November, to be followed by the interim dividend distribution, with the ex dividend date on 16 November and payment on 20 November.

Qualco’s share on a strong upward run

Qualco’s share remains firmly on an upward trajectory, notching a third consecutive session of gains on the Athens Stock Exchange. After Monday’s 4.46 per cent rise (on turnover of €1.9 million and almost 320,000 shares traded) and yesterday’s 4.43 per cent gain (turnover of €2.27 million and 362,000 shares), the stock closed at €6.36. With the three day rally now totalling 9.65 per cent, the share has returned to levels last seen back in January, though it remains a short distance from its yearly high of €6.675. The pickup in trading activity and sustained buying momentum reflect investor optimism ahead of the first half results, due on Tuesday, 15 September, after the market closes.

A 5 per cent tax on Star Bulk’s dividends

Star Bulk’s order book opens today and closes on Friday for the placement of up to 4.4 million new shares, as part of the parallel listing of its entire share capital on Euronext Athens. The new shares represent around 3.8 per cent of existing capital, priced in a range of €23 to €25.50, aiming to raise up to €112.2 million, with trading in the new shares starting on 16 September alongside Nasdaq. Petros Pappas is offering the company at roughly a 20 per cent discount to net asset value, the family is participating for up to €6 million at the same price as the public offering, and half year profits jumped to $203.5 million. Among Athens brokers, retail investors have been raising a reasonable question that has led to an interesting side story: will Star Bulk’s dividends be taxed at 30 per cent, like those of Viohalco and Cenergy? The confusion is understandable, but the answer is no. The 30 per cent levied on those two groups’ dividends isn’t a Greek tax at all, it’s Belgian withholding tax at source, a consequence of their registered seat in Brussels. On paper, the Greek Belgian double taxation treaty caps withholding at 15 per cent for individuals. In practice, though, recovering the difference requires applications and certificates to the Belgian authorities, procedures that most private investors never bother with, which is why they end up paying the full 30 per cent, with no offset available in Greece. Star Bulk, however, plays by different rules entirely. As a shipping company, its dividends fall under the special regime of Law 27/1975 and are taxed in Greece at a flat 5 per cent, which fully discharges the tax liability. There’s no withholding at source from the Marshall Islands, and certainly no Belgian red tape to deal with. For a company that pays quarterly dividends and channels almost all of its free cash flow to shareholders, this gap between a 5 per cent and a 30 per cent dividend tax rate is a fairly compelling savings argument.

The 40 days troubling Pappas

Staying with Petros Pappas’s company, one comment he made recently at a press conference is worth remembering, because behind it lies a bigger concern circulating in Piraeus shipping offices: where have the young Greek seafarers gone, and what happens if the trend doesn’t reverse? Star Bulk’s chief executive made no attempt to sugarcoat the situation. He gave the example of a ship sailing from China to Brazil, roughly 40 days at sea, with essentially no other human contact beyond the roughly 20 crewmates on board. What came next, though, was the most striking part. Pappas linked young people turning away from the maritime profession to a far bigger risk: the gradual loss of Greek maritime expertise built up over generations. And that’s where the real warning bell lies. Greece may have one of the world’s strongest merchant fleets, and Greek shipowners may be investing billions in new vessels, but seamanship isn’t something shipyards can sell. It’s passed down from generation to generation, from ship to office, from the old hands to the newer ones. So the question isn’t simply who will crew Greek owned ships. It’s who will pass on tomorrow the knowledge that got Greek shipping to where it stands today. Those 40 days at sea, then, may be masking a much bigger problem back on land.

Who’s next in line?

Two moves within a few months, first Polys Hajioannou with Safe Bulkers, now Petros Pappas with Star Bulk, and the market is already talking about who’ll be third. That’s where the interesting backdrop lies. Brokerage offices are now looking towards the large pool of Greek owned shipping companies still listed exclusively in New York. Diana Shipping, Danaos, Seanergy, Euroseas and others of Greek ownership have exactly the profile Euronext Athens would want to attract: international presence, a recognisable shipowning name and an investment track record on Wall Street. That doesn’t mean any of them is packing for Athens. What is being said, though, is that the subject has firmly entered the conversation. The real test is Star Bulk. Safe Bulkers carried out a parallel listing without raising capital. Pappas is going a step further, asking the Greek market to put real money on the table. If the offering is met with strong demand, people on Akti Miaouli will start doing different sums. Because it’s one thing to hear that Athens wants to become a shipping finance hub, and quite another to watch two of your competitors already tie up alongside the Greek board.

Greek owners set to take delivery of a ship a day for the next three years

Greek shipowners are on the verge of a historic milestone. Nearly 1,000 ships are currently under construction for Greek interests, a striking figure. The billions behind this unprecedented investment boom are flowing almost entirely to the major shipyards of China, South Korea and Japan, and alongside the ships come engines, electronic systems, energy saving equipment and new fuel technologies. That’s where the Greek stake in all this lies, not, obviously, in starting to build VLCCs and container ships in Greece tomorrow, but in the domestic ship repair and construction industry claiming a bigger slice of the huge aftermarket these ships create: repairs, conversions, spare parts, digital applications and green technologies. Because if Greek owners are taking delivery of almost one new ship a day for the next three years, worth $200 billion in total, the real question isn’t just how much bigger the Greek owned fleet becomes. It’s how much of that value ever finds its way back into the Greek economy.

Shorting Renault

Short positions in Renault have climbed to unprecedented levels, despite early signs of improving results at the carmaker. According to La Lettre, François Provost’s management is quietly lobbying France’s markets regulator for tighter oversight of short selling. Disclosed net short positions stood at 8.16 per cent of shares as of 7 September, placing Renault among the top targets for hedge funds in France. Official AMF filings confirm the heightened activity, fuelling further debate over the need for greater transparency and stricter controls.

French courts refer Fiat Chrysler for trial

Staying in France and the car industry, French prosecutors have referred Fiat Chrysler, now part of Stellantis, for criminal trial in Paris on charges of “aggravated fraud” as part of the Dieselgate investigation. The case concerns allegations of manipulating emissions data on diesel vehicles, with hearing dates being considered for November 2028. FCA becomes the third carmaker referred to trial in France over the scandal, after Volkswagen and Renault, further widening the legal exposure facing the Stellantis group.

Copper earns its PhD in the markets

The price of copper on the London Metal Exchange hit $14,533 a tonne the day before yesterday, another fresh record high for three month contracts, above the previous peak set in January and up 68 per cent from April’s low of $8,613, when “Liberation Day” tariffs were dragging commodities down. Copper is known as the metal “with a PhD in economics” because of its knack for predicting global economic cycles. Today it’s making history again, only this time the diagnosis isn’t simply “growth”. Markets have spent weeks pricing in the likelihood that President Trump will extend tariffs to imports of processed metal. The relevant recommendation from the US Commerce Department has already been pending for two months. Traders have shipped hundreds of thousands of tonnes to the US this year. By the end of July, 58 per cent of visible global exchange stockpiles, the portion captured in official data, sat in COMEX warehouses in the US (part of the CME group), even as LME stocks continue to drain away. In simple terms, the LME in London, the global benchmark, is emptying out, while COMEX warehouses in New York, effectively America’s national stockpile, are filling up. The price curve has flipped into backwardation, with immediate delivery now costing more than future delivery. “The damage is already done, the threat of tariffs alone was enough to shift all the surplus metal to the US,” notes Goldman Sachs, while a Cesco analyst speaks of “regional tightness” rather than a global shortage. For Greece’s cable and copper processing industry, this rally cuts both ways: a boon for order books, but extra weight on raw material costs.