Hello, as you have probably realized, we have entered the autumn season of opinion polls, which, broadly speaking, all (the serious ones) show roughly the same figures. New Democracy and Tsipras are each about a point up after their appearances at the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), while Androulakis is roughly where he was, and Samaras is somewhere around 3%–3.5%. The surprise that is “distorting” the figures to the right and far right of New Democracy is called Ilias Kasidiaris. The far-right politician, now free as of yesterday, is taking votes from everywhere—Samaras, Karystianou, Niki, Spartans, Velopoulos, and whatever exists to the right of the governing party—and he may even be reaching 6%, not to mention higher. Following yesterday’s release from prison and the reception he received from his supporters, the practical question is what Kasidiaris will do. As his lawyer said outside Domokos Prison, the logical course is for him to cooperate with a party that will have representation in Parliament, even if it does not have a parliamentary group. And to do so as an independent affiliated member, so as to avoid any issue of shadow leadership or incompatibility with the provisions of the law stating that he cannot found or participate in a party until 2033, when the 13-year sentence will have been completed. At the moment, there are two small parties in Parliament: the Hellenic Pulse of Nikos Papadopoulos of NIKI, and PARON of a Gavgiotakis who was elected in Heraklion with the Spartans. In any case, it appears that the Kasidiaris camp is moving toward the creation of a new formation that could emerge within a few weeks and bring together various independent MPs who will come from the Spartans and NIKI. According to information, the central figure in this architecture is Giannis Dimitrokallis, a man with close ties to the Kasidiaris family, as he had (still has?) the brother of the former Golden Dawn lieutenant as a political appointee.

EL.AS: Changes underway…

Before I return to government matters, let me convey a mood, a snapshot from an interesting issue concerning the party of our beloved Alexis, for whom, as you know, we have both a soft spot and fairly good information. So, the leader, because if nothing else he has a nose and a feel for communications, probably realized that the nonsense about wealth taxes based on the global (perhaps even interplanetary) database of economic data, etc., did some damage. And given that neither Liakos nor Chouliarakis, his main economic advisers, can come out and speak because they work at banking institutions, they will probably look for some genuine market professional who at least knows the basics. Because…even that Pappas did not work out for him…

The meeting on prices and Pierrakakis’s contacts

In any case, the mundane reality is that there is considerable concern at the Prime Minister’s Office about international prices, which is why this afternoon, after Mitsotakis’s appearance in Parliament, Pierrakakis, Petralia, and Papastavrou will go there to discuss what is to come. Pierrakakis discussed the development of the international situation in detail yesterday as well, during his meetings with Chancellor Merz in Berlin and his counterpart Lars Klingbeil. They also discussed other matters of European interest, such as the European Budget, while Merz, I am told, congratulated him on the interview he gave yesterday to the business daily Handelsblatt. Pierrakakis also gave a speech at the Hertie School of Governance and, in the evening, spoke at a closed dinner of the German Council on Foreign Relations. Greek reality, however, is tugging at their sleeve, as there is particular concern over heating oil.

Floridis called up

I wrote to you weeks ago about the prospect of Floridis standing as a New Democracy candidate in Thessaloniki A. In the end, the Minister of Justice received his marching orders and met with Mitsotakis at the Maximos Mansion yesterday for about an hour, as K.M.’s logic is to strengthen the candidate list as much as possible. In this constituency, Aphrodite Nestora will definitely play a strong role, having a different level of public visibility following the terrorist attack on her home and the death of her mother, while the former Chief of the Hellenic Army General Staff, Frangoulis Frangoulis, is also being mentioned; he has had a meeting with K.M. In addition, the local figures in Thessaloniki are waiting to see what will happen with Margaritis Schoinas, who is indeed making moves, but with a broader horizon and a more likely destination on the State-wide list—unless the Lord’s plans change.

Deputy spokespersons

We have said that New Democracy secretary Kyranakis is setting in motion a significant party reshuffle. It will perhaps begin as early as next week with the appointment of two deputy press spokespersons, presumably one man and one woman. The same arrangement was in place in 2016, when Mitsotakis became president, with Kyranakis and Zacharaki as the first two deputies. Announcements will follow for approximately 100 names on New Democracy’s candidate lists, followed by changes to the structure and staffing of the party’s secretariats.

Mitsotakis on ERT

Kyriakos Mitsotakis will give his first interview after the TIF and the completion of the entire cycle of appearances, speaking on Thursday afternoon on the main ERTNEWS bulletin with Panagiotis Stathis. I am told that Mitsotakis will go to the Radio House for a visit and will pre-record the interview one hour before the bulletin airs at 18:00.

Works in Porto Germeno to begin immediately

The restoration plan for Western Attica moved from the meeting at the Maximos Mansion to the work crews in Porto Germeno within just a few weeks. And this is the political message the government wants to send following the July fire. Stavros Papastavrou was on site together with MPs, mayors, and the Forestry Service, while four Forestry Cooperatives have already begun work on more than 4,000 acres and 10 streams. It is significant that the mayor of Mandra–Eidyllia said the project began earlier than originally planned, while the mayor of Megara described it as “unexpected” that the interventions were already underway as of September 15.

FG Europe deal at an enterprise value of €100 million

With regard to the recent sale of G. Feidakis’s FG Europe to the Swedish group Beijer Ref, the column’s information is that the deal was completed at an enterprise value of €100 million. This valuation is slightly above 5 times 2025 EBITDA and 4.5 times the EBITDA of the current financial year, as it is expected to be formed. G. Feidakis wanted to sell FG Europe and had been in negotiations with the Swedes for four years. Beijer Ref acquired 75% of the company’s shares, with an option to purchase the remaining 25%.

Line 4: The report goes to the Prosecutor’s Office, renewed pressure over Kypseli

Athens Mayor Haris Doukas is turning up the pressure on Elliniko Metro, announcing that the experts’ report on damage and subsidence in buildings in Kypseli will be forwarded to the Athens Prosecutor’s Office. He is calling for a full structural inspection, fair compensation for residents, and access to the complete report on the causes of the problem and the conditions for safely restarting the tunnel-boring machine. For his part, Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Nikos Tachiaos assures that, based on the inspections carried out so far and daily measurements of the cracks, there is no reason to evacuate any building. Damage assessments have been completed and individualized vulnerability studies are at the final stage, while the contractor will cover the entire cost of restoration, including interventions to load-bearing elements wherever required. Except that when he was asked whether he himself would stay in the particular houses, his answer was a clear “no”—and the contradiction, although candid, is hardly reassuring to residents. Meanwhile, the resignation of the president of Elliniko Metro, Christos Karadimas, gave rise to imaginative associations with the Kypseli crisis, but the explanation lies elsewhere. This column had written in good time that the change would come as a result of the transfer to Egnatia Odos of Olympia Odos CEO Panagiotis Papanikolas. H. Karadimas is expected to succeed him as CEO of Olympia Odos, by decision of the French Vinci, which heads the project. The choice is not accidental, as he had previously served in a managerial position in the same concession. As for the mayor’s stance, let us recall that H. Doukas is not confronting Elliniko Metro for the first time. In the recent past, he had expressed strong opposition to the technical environmental study for the “Evangelismos” station because it provided for extensive occupation of Rizari Park for the construction site—and therefore the loss/cutting of greenery—as well as making Rizari one-way. The municipality had also lodged a formal objection in June 2025. Elliniko Metro has prepared a new technical environmental study, which it is expected to submit for approval to the Ministry of Environment and Energy.

The Athens Stock Exchange session extended by 10 minutes due to upgrade

Members of Euronext Athens will have an additional ten minutes of trading on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, September 18, the day on which the Greek stock market will experience the largest “index auction” in its history. In a notice to brokerage firms, the Exchange decided on two extraordinary measures: extending the trading phase at the closing price (At The Close) until 17:30 instead of 17:20, and a corresponding extension of the period for entering pre-agreed transactions. The feverish meetings at the Ministry of Finance and the Exchange administration, which we wrote about yesterday, resulted in a practical decision: more time to accommodate the orders. The scale of the wave has already been measured in a dress rehearsal. On August 31, the day of the FTSE rebalancing, turnover exceeded €800 million. For September 18, estimates are much higher. JPMorgan’s estimates for passive inflows from STOXX alone exceed $1.1 billion. The banks’ profits are not measured only by the shares that will be purchased. They also include their subsidiaries that will execute the purchases. Piraeus Securities handles approximately 20% of daily trading value. National Bank, Eurobank, and Alpha (together with AXIA’s extensive international client base) account for 7% to 10% each. The four systemic banks are among the top five Members in terms of transactions. Total August trading value reached €5.7 billion. Everything indicates that Wednesday’s, Thursday’s, and Friday’s sessions will exceed that figure. In three days, as many transactions will be carried out as take place in a month, and the commissions accompanying them will be recorded in the third quarter, alongside the same banks that will see their own shares change hands. The Exchange gave ten extra minutes. The banks will collect a month’s worth of commissions.

Coastal shipping: €208,000 fuel cost for the Piraeus–Rhodes route

The surge in marine fuel, MGO, to €1,300 per tonne, almost double the price in February, has overturned the economic equation of coastal shipping. To put this into perspective, fuel alone for a round trip from Piraeus to Rhodes now costs €208,000, approximately €103,000 more within seven months. That is the big picture. I would focus on one detail, because that may be where the next problem lies. Coastal shipping currently has two “cushions.” Advance fuel purchases, mainly by the large companies, and government compensation limit part of the additional cost. Except that neither cushion is inexhaustible. And this is where the difficult questions begin. What happens if MGO remains at €1,300 per tonne once the protection provided by advance purchases runs out? And what will happen when government support is no longer sufficient to absorb the pressure? Because then the bill will have to go somewhere—to the companies, the state budget, or the passenger. Coastal shipping is not an activity that can simply cut a loss-making route and end the discussion there. It transports island residents, trucks, food, medicines, and goods, and keeps the islands connected to mainland Greece.

HIG Group’s new logistics center

The licensing procedures are moving forward for the new investment being developed in Aspropyrgos by OB Real Estate. This is the company chaired and managed by Alexandros Karafyllidis, with OB Streem S.A. as its parent company, HIG Capital’s investment arm for logistics in Greece and Southeastern Europe, which has brought different corporate entities under its umbrella, with a broad network of investments in the promising logistics sector. Having initiated the procedures to develop the investment property it owns in Aspropyrgos for the construction of warehouses with a total area of almost 60,000 sq.m., the company is now proceeding with the process of issuing an Environmental Approval Decision (AEPO). The project, which has a target horizon of 2028, currently concerns the “construction of two ground-level storage and distribution centers (Building A and Building B) at the Kyrillos location in the Municipality of Aspropyrgos.” The relevant Environmental Impact Assessment notes that the total time required to complete the construction works is 580 days, while at this stage, according to the relevant timetable, the public consultation will continue until October 23, 2026. To implement the project, the column reminds readers that financing has been secured through total funding of up to €655 million obtained by the parent company OB Streem S.A., signed in December 2025. The new Storage and Distribution Center will be developed on three adjoining plots with a total area of 109 stremmata, with total building space corresponding to 58,555 sq.m., while a road running alongside Attiki Odos passes through the northern section of one of the properties. As emphasized in the relevant study, “the location of the project plays an important role. The wider Thriasio area is considered the Mecca of logistics and 3PL services.” The EIA also states that the project under study is not a polluting activity and falls within the medium-nuisance category. It also does not occupy an area designated for residential or other development different from the project’s activity, namely storage and distribution.

GEK TERNA: €280 million in cash and concession debt

The reference to debt in the first-half financial results of the GEK TERNA Group is interesting. What does it show? That the parent company has no net debt. On the contrary, it has €280 million in its coffers if we exclude the debt of the concession projects and take into account the proceeds from the sale of shares. But how does the pro forma adjusted net debt of €3.82 billion arise? As the company explained, accounting rules require the Group to report all the debt of its subsidiaries together. However, these are self-financed loans, given that 85% of the debt concerns motorway concessions (New Attiki Odos and Egnatia Odos), which are “non-recourse.” In simple terms, if for any reason a project does not perform well, the banks can take only the revenues of that particular project. They cannot demand money from the parent company or seize any of its other assets. And the projects themselves pay their own debt: the roads have secured toll revenues and stable income for decades, and the loans are therefore repaid autonomously.

Lavipharm: The leap comes with Durogesic and cannabis

Analysts expect strong results from Lavipharm for the second quarter and first half of 2026, with medical cannabis and antiseptics as the main growth drivers. The greatest interest, however, lies in the prospects for the second half and for 2027. The effect of the acquisition from Janssen (J&J) of the rights to transdermal Durogesic in 24 countries is not included at all in the first-half figures, as the acquisition was completed in July and the first sales are expected at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Alongside the continued strong growth of medical cannabis, the market expects a strong acceleration in sales in the second half and in 2027. Lavipharm management has said that it is preparing to handle a huge volume of sales toward the end of 2026 due to Durogesic, as sales of the product in certain major international markets are expected to begin within the next two months, while by December Lavipharm intends to have a presence in all the high-commercial-interest markets it has selected. Thus, the upcoming results function more as a precursor to the next phase of growth, with Durogesic and cannabis serving as the main catalysts for a noticeable strengthening of sales and profitability.

New records for the Greek refineries

The Monday correction proved temporary for the shares of the two Greek refineries, as Motor Oil and HELLENiQ ENERGY immediately returned to positive territory, moving toward new records. Motor Oil reached a new all-time high, closing at €67.6, while during the session it approached €68. At the same time, HELLENiQ ENERGY closed at €18, reaching that level at the closing price for the first time in 27 years and now having as its next milestone the all-time record of €18.87 from September 1999. The main catalyst for the upward trajectory of both shares is the persistence of international oil prices (Brent and WTI) above $100 per barrel. Additional momentum came from a new analysis by Eurobank Equities, which highlights the impressive strengthening of refining margins during the summer months, due to tight supply of middle distillates (diesel and kerosene). Refining margins for the third quarter of 2026 are estimated at levels above $30 per barrel. As a result, Eurobank Equities significantly revised its estimates for 2026 profitability, calculating adjusted EBITDA of €2.52 billion for Motor Oil and €2.27 billion for HELLENiQ ENERGY, representing an increase of more than 80% compared with its June forecasts. However, despite raising its target prices to €73.9 for Motor Oil and €17.5 for HELLENiQ ENERGY, the brokerage is taking a more selective stance. It changed its recommendation for HELLENiQ ENERGY to “hold,” while maintaining a “buy” recommendation for Motor Oil, as the share offers an expected total return of more than 15%.

Piraeus Port is sailing toward other ports

Information converges on the conclusion that activity at the Port of Piraeus in August was surprisingly good. As far as containers are concerned, 372,000 TEUs were handled in August alone. The eight-month total rises to 2,718,800 TEUs and the year’s sign turns positive. From approximately −2% in the seven-month period, it reached marginally positive territory (+0.1%) as of August 31. One month erased the misery of seven. Piraeus Port’s share price once again surpassed €1 billion in market capitalization, 10.5% above its level three months ago. The conference call for the half-year results is scheduled for October 1, and the market is waiting to hear what new information management will provide following the decline in first-quarter profitability and—above all—following the notorious “innocent” sudden expansion of the company’s articles of association to include “the development and management of port infrastructure outside Piraeus, the management of other ports within and outside Greece, logistics services, and the investment of capital through participation in the equity of other businesses of any form and for any purpose.” At Akti Miaouli, many people “see” Cosco’s intention to participate in the upcoming international tender for the port of Elefsina (the Hellenic Asset Development Fund, in cooperation with the State, is preparing the tender documents), while AKTOR–ONEX have decided to bid together. This scenario has one small weakness. Elefsina is being opened up precisely so that Piraeus (i.e. Cosco) does not have a monopoly in Attica. A Piraeus Port Authority bidder for Elefsina would complicate the process and the overall plan considerably.

The best daily performance of the past quarter

On the occasion, it should be noted that yesterday the Piraeus Port Authority share jumped 5.7%, achieving its best daily performance of the past quarter. The share closed at €44.4, while intraday it touched €45.35, reaching its highest level since the end of last July. Despite the strong move, the share still remains some distance from its all-time record of €49.7, achieved last June. Yesterday’s rally was accompanied by strong investor interest. Trading exceeded €1.7 million, with volume close to 40,000 shares, achieving the highest turnover in 10 months, specifically since November 20, 2025, when turnover had reached €2 million.

In the aftermath of the TIF, G. Mytilineos and the Japanese

In the aftermath of the Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), one meeting with a strong maritime flavor deserves more attention. Japanese Ambassador Koichi Ito and Taro Kono met with M/MARITIME founder Giannis Mytilineos. And here, who Kono is matters. He is one of the most recognizable figures in the governing LDP, with a long parliamentary career and terms, among others, at the ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, while he chairs the Japan–Greece Parliamentary Friendship Group. Naturally, the discussion turned to the sea. Koichi Ito described M/MARITIME as an important partner of the Japanese shipping industry, while Kono emphasized the shared identity of Greece and Japan as two traditional maritime nations. Mytilineos, for his part, has an additional reason to look East. His relationships with Japanese shipyards go back years, and in that particular market trust is difficult to build and pays off over the long term. M/MARITIME currently manages 18 bulk carriers, while it has begun broadening the scope of its activities, entering the containership sector as well with two 2,800-TEU feeders, scheduled for delivery from 2028. At the same time, it has agreed three long-term time charters for newbuild bulk carriers to be delivered in 2029–2030. So, keep in mind the Japanese ambassador’s phrase about an “important partner” from Thessaloniki. Because when a Greek shipowner has earned such a passport of trust in Japan while simultaneously expanding his footprint in shipping, the market inevitably begins to wonder what the next move will be.

Kollakis’s “stars” and the bet on tankers

Two “stars” within a few days for Pantelis (Lou) Kollakis and Chartworld Shipping. Following the delivery of the newbuild “Rhodes Star,” with a capacity of 50,000 dwt, came the launching of the “Patmos Star,” showing that the company is methodically continuing its expansion in tankers. And this is where the interesting part behind the news lies. Chartworld has a highly diversified shipping portfolio, with a presence in bulk carriers, containerships, reefer vessels, and tankers. The latest moves, however, indicate that tankers are acquiring greater weight in its planning. The “Rhodes Star,” built at New Yangzi of the Chinese Yangzijiang Group, has already begun its maiden voyage, while the “Patmos Star” is the next piece of the puzzle. And because Lou Kollakis is not accustomed to making moves for show, the question being asked in shipping circles is not only which “Star” comes next. It is how much larger a share of Chartworld’s fleet is ultimately destined for tankers.

Why fund managers fell in love with the banks

One of the strongest dynamics in recent years is emerging in business banking in the United Kingdom, with lending increasing by 9% compared with last year. Lloyds and NatWest recorded annualized growth of 20% in business and investment banking financing in the first half of 2026, levels not seen since the period before the global financial crisis. According to analysts, the trend will develop into a multi-year credit cycle, supported by corporate re-leveraging, as corporate debt currently corresponds to 59% of GDP, compared with 80% before the crisis, 72% in the eurozone, and 103% in the United States. A return toward the pre-pandemic level of 70% creates additional borrowing capacity of approximately £300 billion. If 40% is covered by banks, existing corporate loans could increase by approximately 25%. In addition, the new investment cycle, which includes significant investments in technology and AI and a stronger appetite for risk in utilities, pharmaceuticals, and industrials, could support a long-term trend of credit expansion. Although a change in the lending mix may put slight pressure on net interest margins, the increase in volumes is expected to support growth in net interest income. Analysts are revising their forecasts for growth in the sector’s corporate lending to a CAGR of 8%–9% for the 2025–2028 period.

Proodeftiki: The struggle now bears fruit

A new chapter for the small listed company “Proodeftiki.” The struggle that began in November 2025 by Chrysa Koutla bore fruit yesterday. At the General Meeting held following a request by shareholder Charilaos Koutounidis (7.22%), represented by the law firm G. Tsafos and Partners, 47% of the share capital was represented, and it unanimously decided to remove the old management. The new board of directors consists of Antonis Paspatis, Aikaterini Stamatelia, Spyros Dimas, Christos Lymperopoulos, and Ioannis Letsios. All were choices of Chrysa Koutla and Char. Koutounidis. On October 17, 2025, the Board decided on a capital increase through the capitalization of an obligation to LDA Capital Ltd—that is, shares instead of cash to the foreign fund—without a General Meeting. In December, Koutla filed for interim measures. In February, Koutounidis sought a court order for the convening of a General Meeting, and the Court of First Instance, by decision 3623/2026, accepted the request. In April, the minority shareholders managed to pass a resolution that the capital increase was invalid and the agreement with LDA was inactive. The General Meeting for the appointment of a new board was scheduled for July 2. It was, however, canceled by the board itself on the very eve of the meeting, “to broaden the pool of candidates.” Meanwhile, management threatened lawsuits over the publications, which prompted questions from the Hellenic Capital Market Commission. It took ten months, two court decisions, and three meetings for the shareholders to exercise their most basic right: to change an unsuccessful management team.

Britain is paying 6%

The British 30-year government bond reached 5.95%, its highest level since March 1998. It is within touching distance of a psychological threshold that Britain has not seen during an entire generation of investors. Six percent is the cost at which the world’s sixth-largest economy borrows for 30 years. Six years ago, the same bond yielded around 0.5%. The 10-year yield reached 5.3%, its highest since 2008, while the two-year yield reached 4.72%, with the market pricing in not cuts but at least one more increase by the Bank of England. Energy price pressures stemming from the Middle East, persistent services inflation, and uncertainty surrounding the October 28 budget are feeding the same trend. Every 25 basis-point increase in borrowing costs adds approximately £2.5 billion to annual interest expenditure. On September 8, the government had already “locked in” 30-year borrowing at 5.8168%. It was the highest cost since the DMO was established in 1998. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’s fiscal headroom, £23.6–26 billion in the spring, has already been cut to £13–13.8 billion, while Deutsche Bank considers £10 billion to be the “floor.” In London, there is now even talk of an “emergency budget” involving spending cuts. Fixed-rate mortgage rates are priced off swaps, and swaps follow gilts.