The United States and Israel have developed specific plans for renewed military strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections, according to American officials and other people briefed on the discussions, as reported by the The New York Times.

As preparations advance for a short but highly intensive military operation, American and Israeli forces have stepped up joint exercises, including flights over Iraq to practice aerial strike maneuvers.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss the possibility of renewed attacks, American officials said. Potential targets include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and arsenal of missiles and drones.

Some officials believe another major wave of strikes could push the Iranian economy to the brink of collapse and force Tehran to make diplomatic concessions, nearly eight months after fighting began and Iranian ports were placed under blockade.

However, there are significant reasons to question whether a new military campaign would prove more successful than the first phase of intense US-Israeli attacks between February and April.

That round of fighting drove up global energy prices and inflation, undermined security across the Middle East and placed enormous strain on the Pentagon’s stockpiles of missile interceptors.

It is also far from certain that President Donald Trump will authorize renewed strikes. The US president has repeatedly rejected proposals for a return to large-scale military operations this year, including earlier this month, when American and Israeli forces were reportedly on the verge of launching another attack.

Iran threatens strikes on data centers and undersea internet cables

With reports of renewed hostilities circulating almost daily, Iranian officials have warned that Tehran’s response to another attack would involve a significantly broader range of targets.

Beyond commercial shipping and energy facilities across the region, Iran has threatened to strike data centers and undersea internet cables. Iranian officials insist that another conflict would be neither brief nor limited in scope.

Meanwhile, the United States is assembling a massive military force, with the deployment expected to be completed by early November.

Despite the preparations, diplomatic efforts are continuing. American negotiators are using the possibility of renewed warfare as leverage against Iran, seeking progress on demands concerning the country’s nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

So far, however, Iranian negotiators have shown little willingness to make concessions on their nuclear program, insisting that the issue should be postponed until a later stage of the talks.

The scenario of an intensive three-day military campaign

Some American military planners are convinced that an intensive, three-day bombing campaign could inflict enough economic damage on Iran to force its leadership to change course.

But assessments differ among officials outside the military. While some American officials have repeatedly predicted Iran’s imminent collapse, other Western officials point out that the Iranian government has so far withstood the economic pressure imposed on it.

“At this stage of the war, it is clear that the conventional military campaign conducted to date, as well as crippling economic sanctions and the American naval blockade, have not meaningfully brought the regime back to the negotiating table,” Dana Stroul, who served as a senior Pentagon official overseeing Middle East policy under the Biden administration, told The New York Times.

Stroul, now with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, added that neither Trump nor Netanyahu has presented a convincing case for how more warfare could break the strategic deadlock in a region becoming increasingly unstable and consumed by conflict.

Israel’s elections could complicate Netanyahu’s military plans

Israel’s October 27 elections could introduce further complications into the military planning.

If Netanyahu loses, he would remain prime minister at the head of a caretaker government, making a decision to launch a new war particularly difficult, according to experts.

Some analysts, however, believe the Israeli prime minister could use the prospect of an imminent joint US-Israeli attack to pressure his political opponents into joining a national unity government. Such an arrangement would oversee the war effort while extending his time in power.

Following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, Netanyahu formed a national unity government that brought opposition figures into a wartime cabinet involved in national security decisions.

“He could use this situation to call for the formation of a broad emergency government, but he would face deep distrust from his political opponents,” said Mazal Mualem, an Israeli political commentator and Netanyahu biographer.

“If Iran attacks, that is different. But it would be extremely difficult for him to initiate an offensive military operation,” she added.

Why Trump may wait until November

According to officials, there remains a small possibility that Trump could order a military operation before the end of October.

However, several political considerations make it more likely that he will wait until after the US elections. Chief among them is a commitment he made earlier this month not to launch an attack before voters go to the polls.

In addition, the US military will not have completed the deployment of all its available forces until early November. The buildup includes three aircraft carriers, thousands of Marines, fighter jets and special operations units.

American forces generally prefer to conduct strikes under cover of darkness, and nighttime hours over Iran will be longer at the beginning of next month. There are also concerns that a new military campaign could trigger a wider regional conflict.

On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered nonessential government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia as the Iran-backed Houthis continued attacking facilities in the country.

A White House official said the administration does not comment on military plans “that may or may not exist,” adding that Trump is keeping all options on the table to ensure Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

Potential targets and the “Mother of All Bombs”

Some officials say the planned strikes could avoid refineries and other oil infrastructure because Trump wants to prevent another surge in fuel prices.

Both the American and Israeli militaries are developing operational plans targeting Iran’s nuclear program, according to people familiar with the preparations.

Among the possible targets is Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried nuclear facility known to Iranians as Kooh Kolang.

Last week, Trump said he was considering using the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, or MOAB, weighing 22,000 pounds, approximately 10 metric tons, against the facility.

According to officials, the American president has been particularly impressed by the weapon, partly because of its nickname, the “Mother of All Bombs.”

Weapons experts, however, note that the MOAB detonates above ground, generating an enormous blast wave, and would be unlikely to destroy a deeply buried facility such as Pickaxe Mountain, which is embedded in granite.

Military officials also warn that the bomb must be delivered by a relatively slow MC-130 transport aircraft, potentially leaving it vulnerable to Iranian air defenses.

The attack Trump called off at the last minute

The United States and Israel came very close to carrying out fresh strikes against Iran in early October, but Trump once again decided at the last minute to postpone the operation, according to American and Israeli defense officials familiar with the details.

The decision came shortly before the planned attack was due to begin, after both countries’ militaries had completed extensive preparations and placed their air forces on the highest level of alert.

The repeated cycle of preparing for military strikes only for Trump to decide against proceeding has created daily uncertainty and abrupt changes for military commanders.

One commander, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the operational sensitivity of the matter, described an atmosphere of constant uncertainty as military planners struggle to remain ready for whichever option the president ultimately authorizes in the coming weeks.

Iran’s new leadership takes an increasingly hard line

With each successive round of fighting, Iran’s leadership appears less willing to compromise, driven by a growing conviction that the ultimate objective of the United States and Israel is to overthrow the country’s government.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remains largely an unknown quantity to American and Israeli intelligence agencies.

Some officials believe he lacks the authority once wielded by his father, who was killed during the opening stages of the war, and that crucial decisions are now being made by hard-line members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Iranian officials say they are aware of American military preparations and are developing new targets and tactics in anticipation of another confrontation.

Tehran threatens Saudi Arabia: “We will hit Trump where it hurts”

Peyman Salehi, a political analyst in Tehran, said that if the underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain were attacked, Iran’s response could include strikes against major Saudi oil refineries, including facilities operated by Aramco.

The aim, he explained, would be to trigger an immediate surge in global oil and energy prices.

“The war made us realize that the best leverage against Trump is raising oil and energy prices because that will hurt the American people,” Salehi said.

An even more explicit warning came from Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iranian negotiator Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

In a social media post this week, Mohammadi dismissed as a “fantasy” the suggestion that the United States could complete another round of strikes against Iran within 72 hours.

He argued that Tehran would be the side to determine when the war ends, recalling Trump’s statement in February that the conflict would last two weeks.

“Our attacks will be more intense, more creative and different,” Mohammadi warned. “We are determined, confident and have undertaken extensive operational planning.”