FT Wolfgang Munchau: There could be an uprising in Greece

The deal will not succeed

Financial Times economics editor Wolfgang Munchau believes a Grexit is the most possible outcome. He believes that Greece will be unable to implement the tough measures outlined in the bill passed last week in the Greek parliament. The columnist believes that Greek PM Alexis Tsipras should have not appointed Yanis Varoufakis as Finance Minster to begin with, but says once that had been done Tsipras should have followed through with Varoufakis’s plan B to take an unflinching position all the way to issuing IOUs.

He believes that Tsipras made the worst possible decision as he says a parallel currency would have allowed economic trading to continue while capital controls were in place, and averted economic collapse. According to Munchau there are three reasons he sees the plan failing. First he stresses that all three parties involved in the deal do not believe in it.

The EU creditors have lost trust in the Greek government, while Tsipras himself has no faith in the measures he will have to implement; and the IMF makes it clear that the Greek debt is unsustainable.

The second reason is that even if the Greek government wants to implement the harsh measures the Greek economy will not be able to recover.

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Finally, the columnist presents a third, and in his opinion the most possible reason the measures will fail, and that is rebellion by the Greek people. He echoes the fears of European Council President Donald Tusk, who told Financial Times in an interview that: “there is a sense of rebellion in the air”.