The “low-level” technical team of the Brussels Group, representing Greece’s international creditors, were transfered from hotel to hotel by the Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) government on Friday so as to show that they are no longer the feared Troika that would once barge into ministries giving orders. Even so, the technical team was able to see through Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis so-called “creative vagueness” and pinpoint actual figures that show the real situation of the Greek economy. Secret meetings on Friday found a 2-bln-euro gap in the primary surplus for 2014 without yet valuating the data for 2015.
Varoufakis states that he has received no “official” word of a “black hole” in Greek figures found by the technical teams of international creditors, however he has refered to “empty funds” and a nonexistent primary surplus in recent interviews. From March 5, Varoufakis’ coworker, Eleni Panariti, had stated that the primary surplus for 2014 would be at 0.5% of the GDP instead of 1.5% that had been foreseen by the state budget. Even from January 26, it had been obvious that the primary suplus from January – December showed a shrinkage of 0.9-1% of the GDP as it was estimated at just 1.8 bln euros.
On its part, circles of the previous conservative New Democracy government attribute the reduction in the primary surplus to the delay recorded before the January 25 elections as well as in lags in payments during the first two months of 2015.
Specifically,
– the primary surplus at the general government level (including state, central administration, social security and local government) was at 3.7 billion euros for the 11 months of 2014
– it fell by 2.2 billion euros in the 12 months of 2014
– it amounted to just 420 million euros in January 2015 (figures for February that are not yet available that will further have an impact on 2014 but showing an unfavorable trend)
– the delay is due to budget revenue where the deviation exceeds 3 bln euros as stated by circles from the conservative New Democracy
The cause of the gaps are due to:
– a deficit that is over a billion euros due to income tax, espcially towards the end of the year (around 500 mln euros) and in the first two months of 2015 (around 500 mln euros) incorporated into 2014 due to election uncertainty
– a deficit of 200 mln euros in VAT for fuel due to a reduction in international oil prices and a reduction to heating fuel tax
– a return of 250 mln euros reducing the target so as to increase liquidity in the economy
– a 250-million-euro deviation in expected income from citizen participation in paying back overdue debts to tax and insurance funds.
– a 400-mln-euro lag in cash revenue of the failure for maturation of completed projects co-funded by the previous National Strategic Reference Framework in the new program period and a deviation of 500 mln euros in making claims for refrunds by cofinanced parts of programs. This amount will be received within 2015 or later to improve future financial results.
