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> Economy

Crunch time: Each word is important in EU deal with Greece

Another crucial 48 hours for Greece in an endless cycle of 48 hours after 48 hours worth of negotiations

Newsroom July 9 09:15

In a race to save Greece from bankruptcy and keep it in the euro, the Greek Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) is battling to come up with credible reforms for a third bailout. The new deadline for serious and conclusive reform plans is Thursday, ahead of the emergency summit on Sunday involving all EU28 members -not just the 19 eurozone countries.

Tsipras pledged that he would “file new concrete proposals, credible reforms” for a fair solution. He said: “We are determined not to have a clash with Europe but to tackle the estblishment in our country head-on in order to change the mindset which will take us and the eurozone down.”

Scant details were given of the reforms Greece is planning to present. New Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos returned straight from his Eurogroup meeting to Athens to work on the program for Greece, though sources in Brussels state that there had been meetings with representatives of creditors to ensure that there was coordination on both sides. The government’s measures will determine as to whether funds will be unlocked from the ESM until 2017, a development package from European Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker and EU commitment for a haircut on Greek debt:

Greek negotiations checklist:

– Submission of a complete request for a new program to be discussed at the Euroworking Group on Thursday that will examine the new needs of the country’s bank system. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had initially forecast 52 billion euros, however this estimation had been made before Greece failed to meet its IMF payment on June 30, as there will be sanctions as a result of this. Furthermore, the estimation had not taken into account the damage to the Greek economy that capital controls would cause. The new program could reach as much as 60-70 bln euros so that Greece could cover its debt repayments.

– Presentation of a series of measures to be voted on by Saturday and applied by next week so that 7 bln euros benchmarked for Greece since last summer can immediately be released so that Greece can cover its upcoming costs. These reforms would need to include tax measures (eg. new emergency contribution, an increase to tax for businesses etc.) as well as pension reforms (cuts to early pensions, 6% contribution to Health on may and auxiliary pensions, an increase to insurance contributions etc.)

– An emergency Eurogroup is to take place on Friday or Saturdaya morning at the latest in order to seal the immediate measures as well as reforms that need to be implemented by October, such as new social security plans, changes to VAT and the single property tax (ENFIA), etc.

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– Once Greek proposals are agreed to by the Eurogroup, they would need to then be presented at the emergency European Council being held over the weekend so that EU leaders can confirm the terms of new funding, chart the timeline of installments and sponsor a development program for Greece.

One of the conditions of a deal includes creditors’ commitment that there will include a cut to Greek debt to make it more viable. (The Eurogroup had also decided on this in November 2012).

 

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