Against the backdrop of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly erratic behavior, Sweden and Finland seek NATO membership. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin’s sanctions-evasion lifeline, has threatened to block their application.
NATO should dump Turkey. Whether due to Turkey’s dictatorship, its sponsorship of terrorist groups like Hamas and Syrian Al Qaeda affiliates, its betrayal of American intelligence, its double-dealing with the Taliban in Afghanistan or a host of other reasons, Turkey simply does not belong.
To expel Turkey from NATO, though, is easier said than done for two reasons: First, there is no formal mechanism to expel members from the alliance. In the past, France and Greece temporarily left the integrated military campaign, but they did so voluntarily, and, regardless, they remained in the alliance. Second, because consensus governs NATO decision-making, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can block any move to push Turkey out. In effect, Turkey has become a Trojan Horse inside NATO.
While most NATO members see the organization as a means of mutual defense, Erdogan views Turkey’s membership as an opportunity to exploit. He signals that Turkey’s vote is for sale to the highest bidder. If he is to accept Sweden and Finland in NATO, then he expects a reward. That might be Congressional approval of the Biden administration’s sale of new F-16s and enhancement packages to Turkey, or it could be a Scandinavian crackdown on Kurdish Diaspora activism and finance within their own countries. Simultaneously, Erdogan is likely sending intermediaries to Putin to see what the Russians are willing to offer him to keep Sweden and Finland out.
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