Much discussion and intense concern is currently going on about a possible strong earthquake of more than 7 Richter is currently present for Constantinople.
The recent earthquake of 4.9 Richter in the Dardanelles has led some scientists to believe that it is a precursor to a very large earthquake in Constantinople.
For his part, the well-known seismologist and research director of the Geodynamic Institute of the Athens Observatory, Dr. Gerasimos Houliaras, said that the rate for the occurrence of an earthquake above 6.5 Richter in Istanbul is 43.6%.
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In a post, Houliaras pointed out that his method of earthquake forecasting shows “poor” results for a very strong earthquake.
In particular, the well-known seismologist wrote: “The application in earthquake forecasting of the modern Nowcasting method shows poor results for a strong earthquake above 6.5 Richter in Constantinople at the moment.
As my analysis today shows, there is only a 43.6% chance of such an event.
