After a series of consistent polling results, teams at Maximos Mansion and Piraeus are meticulously analyzing data to uncover hidden aspects and vulnerabilities that could challenge New Democracy’s dominance in the upcoming European election on June 9th. Following the first post-Easter polls, where five different surveys showed a favorable image of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his coalition, opposition parties seem stagnant. Mitsotakis consistently leads in leadership evaluations, with his approval surpassing the combined total of other leaders. For instance, poll reveals 38.2% trust in Mitsotakis, compared to 10.1% for Stefanos Kasselakis, 6.6% for Nikos Androulakis, and similarly low numbers for other leaders. Notably, Mitsotakis also enjoys the highest positive opinion (42.2%) and the lowest negative opinion (57%) among all leaders.
Favorable correlations
Simultaneously, the power dynamics in voting intention show favorable correlations for New Democracy, as all measurements indicate a dynamic exceeding the threshold of 33.12%, which is the percentage it gathered in the last European elections. Most analysts even estimate that if unpredictable factors do not arise in the next twenty days remaining until the day of the vote and if the trend recorded in the most recent surveys continues, then it is likely to surpass its performance in 2019.
ND’s lead signifies a solid trend, with the governing coalition poised to maintain a significant double-digit advantage over its nearest competitor. Ideally aiming for over 35% support, the coalition seeks to secure eight of Greece’s 21 seats in the European Parliament, as it did in 2019. Recent developments favor the government, as right-leaning parties have seen a decline compared to New Democracy. The Greek Solution remains an exception, potentially ranking fourth overall if it stabilizes its support around 10%.
Velopoulos’s party emerges as a potential choice for Spartan sympathizers, while the Logic Voice of Aphrodite Latinopoulou lacks the electoral strength to surpass the 3% threshold for electing an MEP. Analysts also speculate on the Patriots formation led by Prodromos Emfietzoglou, although it currently polls below 1%. In the battle between SYRIZA and PASOK, SYRIZA holds the lead, but momentum seems to favor Koumoundourou. However, many new supporters attracted to SYRIZA lack strong commitment to voting, potentially contributing to increased abstention.
Government officials campaigning in regions cannot trace those planning to vote for Kasselakis, doubting if SYRIZA will reach 20%, but see PASOK’s campaign as lackluster. Despite SYRIZA’s lead, the battle for Center-Left dominance is ongoing, with undecided voters crucial. These voters, over 10%, are mostly middle-aged women who previously voted for New Democracy.
In detail, undecided voters comprise 39% New Democracy, 15.3% SYRIZA, 12.4% PASOK, and 7.3% Communist Party supporters. About 42.9% self-identify as Center or Center-Left. Six out of ten are women, and 47% are aged 45-65, with only one in five aged 17-34.
Concerning age demographics, doubts arise about SYRIZA’s reported lead among 17-34-year-olds, as government officials question the validity of the data, suggesting it’s unsupported by other polls. Analysts are wary of estimating undecided voters’ impact, noting historical trends where nearly one in five voters opts for smaller parties around 1%, particularly in European elections. They highlight a lack of evidence in recent polls capturing this fragmentation and weakening of major parties, a traditional phenomenon in European elections.
Most pollsters and election analysts are grappling with the challenge of predicting voter turnout, expected to surpass 50%. They draw parallels with a recent mayoral election in Athens, where abstention influenced an unexpected victory. Despite differences with European elections, analysts warn of the potential for upsets due to abstention. Government leaders, acknowledging these risks, emphasize vigilance, with Kyriakos Mitsotakis leading nationwide tours. Initiatives, including a letter to EU leaders, aim to address issues such as reckless speculation by multinational corporations, a key concern for Greek and European citizens alike.
