Tonight, Kyriakos Mitsotakis will bring to a close a long and drawn-out election campaign as he takes the stage at the main ND rally in Syntagma, just as he did last June during the national elections. And because traditions are important, Mr. Mitsotakis will give a morning interview on SKAI TV, on “Atairiastoi.”
After a campaign period filled with tensions and significant personal involvement from Mr. Mitsotakis, who has spent considerable time on tours and rallies since Easter, there is just enough time for one final push to mobilize voters. The messages of high abstention rates have reached the Maximos Mansion, prompting Mr. Mitsotakis to urge citizens tonight to set aside any concerns or dissatisfaction and head to the polls on Sunday for the European elections, even if they combine it with a trip to the beach.
The New Democracy party is particularly focusing on undecided voters, hoping to gain at least one percentage point from those making last-minute decisions, estimated to be between 8-10%, depending on the survey. Additionally, it is crucial for Mr. Mitsotakis—and he will emphasize this in his speech tonight—that traditional ND voters show up at the polls despite any grievances they might have. In a high-abstention environment, parties that can mobilize their organized base are the winners. ND maintains a capable organizational mechanism and a broad base, although mobilizing remains challenging when many citizens feel there is no significant stake or threat to governmental stability.
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Double score, but also…relaxed voting
At the end of the campaign period, ND enters with a comfortable lead in the polls, as all surveys indicate that SYRIZA and PASOK together cannot match its percentage. This does not mean the government team is complacent, as the battle for the last vote will continue until Sunday. However, according to yesterday’s Marc survey for ANT1, the cohesion of most parties, with few exceptions, seems to be loosening, while the percentage of voters who consider the European elections unimportant has risen by almost 4.5 points.
In the voting estimate, ND has a range from 30.6% to 35.4%, with an average of 33%. SYRIZA starts at 14.7% with a ceiling of 18.5% and an average of 16.6%. PASOK has a floor of 10.1% and a ceiling of 13.3%, with an average of 11.7%. Following, based on the average estimate, are Greek Solution with 8.4% (range from 7% to 9.8%), KKE with an average of 7.8% (from 6.4% to 9.2%), Niki with 3.6%, MeRA25 with 2.8%, Voice of Reason with 2.6%, New Left with 2.45%, and the Democrats with 1.9%.
An additional interesting aspect is the survey by “To The Point” for CRETA TV. In this survey, ND continues to lead in all prefectures of Crete, albeit with a reduced margin compared to the national elections, with PASOK firmly in second place. SYRIZA is clearly third, despite Mr. Kasselakis’s local ties. Specifically, across Crete, ND stands at 26.1% in voting intention, PASOK follows with 20.4%, and SYRIZA is third with 13.4%. In Heraklion, ND leads with 24.8%, PASOK follows with 20%, and SYRIZA is third with 14.9%.
