The last card in a political recovery operation is the early parliamentary elections, which Emmanuel Macron was forced to announce yesterday, for June 30 and July 7, after the resounding beating his party received from French voters at the European elections. I am a move that has been resorted to by French Presidents in the past, in an attempt to control the governing majority, sometimes successfully, like Mitterrand in 1988 and other times unsuccessfully, like Chirac in 1997, who was forced to “cohabit” with the Socialists, with Jospin as prime minister.
This time, however, the movement of Macron was more or less a one-way street, as the blow to his political capital is severe, the continuation of the government with a party that is now in a large minority is impossible, therefore the only way out is the national polls as there are still 3 years of the presidential term left.
However, the risk is not small at all, as a possible…”cohabitation” with Le Pen can lead to adventures.
Starting the march to the June 30 election, Mr Macron on Monday morning sent a message via a post on X that “my only ambition is to be useful to our country, which I love so much”.
“Parliamentary elections will be held on June 30 and July 7. I have confidence in the ability of the French people to make the right choice for themselves and for future generations. My only ambition is to be useful to our country, which I love so much,” the French president wrote in his post.
Double score
The political and electoral analysts who, before yesterday’s European elections, predicted the clear rise of the right across Europe, but also that the most important tone in the political climate of the next day in Europe of 27 will be set by the result in France, were solemnly vindicated. The political upheaval that took place at the polls yesterday, with the overwhelming victory of Marine Le Pen’s party over that of Emmanuel Macron, -double score with 31.5% against 14.6%-, is already producing catalytic results inside and outside the country.
The French President has already suffered a heavy personal blow and urgently needs recovery moves, as there is no question about his term, which ends in 2027, but his political legitimacy has been injured.
The balance in the Franco-German axis, which has always been the driving force in European developments, is literally up in the air, as well as Chancellor Soltz, as well as the 3 parties of the government coalition, also experienced the resounding disapproval of the German voters yesterday. Furthermore, the great rise in Le Pen’s appeal seems to give her not only a lead to victory in the early parliamentary elections, but also ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. France has historically been the matrix of political and social developments in Europe, usually with a positive sign, but now things are different.
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Mandatory movement
Thus, after this heavy defeat, President Macron was forced to proceed with the dissolution of the National Assembly and the announcement of parliamentary elections. In fact, he did so immediately, as there is a constitutional provision that stipulates in similar cases that elections be held within a period of 21-40 days from the signing of the decision to dissolve the National Assembly. Therefore, only if it went ahead yesterday would it be ahead of the above dates, with each delay creating further problems as the Paris Olympics follow.
“I cannot at the end of this day act as if nothing had happened,” said the French president, admitting his heavy defeat. His announcement was met with enthusiasm and, for the first time, applause for him by Le Pen’s supporters at her polling station.
The defeat was not a surprise, but it came to confirm the electoral momentum that the polls showed throughout the previous period. The RN achieved an increase of eight percentage points compared to the previous European elections in 2019, when it had gathered 23.34%. A result that, in addition to Marine Le Pen, is largely credited to the young Bardela.
Failures and warnings
Macron’s warnings of a dangerous strengthening of the forces of authoritarianism and populism, his highly aggressive and even pro-war rhetoric on the Ukrainian issue, as well as his appeals for European unity in the face of the test of the European elections did him no good, as her pre-election agenda Le Pen and the dilemmas he raised prevailed completely.
“An end to mass immigration, an end to the reduction of the purchasing power of the French, an end to the deindustrialization of our country” was the triptych of commitments that Le Pen made in the pre-election period, and which she repeated to her gathered supporters, who celebrated last night at the central electoral center of the party in Paris.
Indeed, the government’s failure to control punctuality and the cost of living for the French, ineffective management of immigration and Macron’s rift with unions over insurance and pension reform all contributed to his party’s disapproval yesterday.
