Greece is spared the worst for now, it is not at risk of new austerity in 2025 like almost half of Europe, but it must move carefully and walk steadily for the next 45 years on a “bright path” of growth so that it can more easily achieve the continuous primary surpluses needed to reduce public debt.

This sums up the conclusions of the reports announced yesterday by the European Commission on the European Semester and Post-Program surveillance of Greece.

And although Greece is considered a “special case” along with Italy for its excessive government debt, the Commission dropped its “bombshell” on 7 countries for which it is immediately starting the fiscal correction process for excessive deficit (France, Italy, Belgium, Slovakia, Malta, Hungary, Poland), while 10 have already exceeded – since last year – the 3% deficit “red line” (France, Italy, Belgium, Slovakia, Malta, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Spain, Czech Republic) and are now following… two more in 2024 (Finland, Slovakia)!

Greece is no longer a “black sheep” and part of the problem, as it was in the last decade. Brussels is not asking for new measures from Greece, as with the other countries. It is indirectly affected though, as a member of the Eurozone, as the EU is now “ranting” about France – Italy, and while Spain marginally escaped of exceeding 3% last year, but this year it is violating it (with a deficit of almost 3.5%-4%) it is “playing with fire” because of the VAT cuts it announced that it had not budgeted for in 2024 (with an annual cost to the deficit of 1% of GDP).

The Commission in its reports yesterday predicted for Greece many times more growth than other countries “stuck” or forced into austerity measures.