“Tonight is like no other night,” said Macron‘s Prime Minister, Gabriel Atal, warning that the “far right is at the gates of power.” and he was right. Meanwhile, in another part of Paris, Le Pen supporters celebrated, chanting “Marine-Marine.” Le Pen, with a tricolour behind her, sang the national anthem and thanked her voters.
At the same time, in Place de la République, supporters of the left-wing NFP coalition gathered, waving French flags to express their opposition to the Le Pen’s victory in the first round of the elections. Will Le Pen’s National Coalition succeed in taking control of the French National Assembly?
“Calling early elections was a mistake,” says Emmanuel Macron’s party member Christopher Weissberg, who represents French people living in North America in the current National Assembly. Based on the first-round results, if the National Rally wins a parliamentary majority, Macron may find himself appointing 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as prime minister and sharing power with him. This would be challenging, given Bardella’s stated intent to “block” sending missiles and other long-range weapons systems to Ukraine and deploying French troops, which Macron appears to be considering.
Everything will be decided next Sunday, in the second and decisive round of elections. A record-breaking turnout is expected, likely higher than the first round’s 65.5%, the highest in a parliamentary election since 1997. This process is of great interest, not least because of the historic victory of the right in the first round with a sweeping 34%. Additionally, there will be three major contenders: Le Pen’s coalition, the left-wing “New Popular Front” coalition with 28%, and Macron’s “Together” alliance with 21%. The French people will decide among these three paths: Le Pen’s far-right, Mélenchon’s left, or Macron’s center.
To be a real winner, one must win an absolute majority, which means capturing at least 289 of the total 577 seats in the French National Assembly. Recall that Macron’s alliance had 250 seats in the outgoing assembly and needed support from other parties to pass laws.
The second round of elections is also interesting at the candidate level. Each candidate must receive at least 12.5% to avoid elimination, while anyone receiving more than 50% with at least a quarter of their constituency participating is automatically elected. In several cases, three or four candidates have made it through to the second round, leading to expected “strategic” withdrawals. Some candidates may withdraw voluntarily to give an opponent and ally a better chance of winning, aiming to stop another candidate from securing victory.
