Joe Biden appears to have struck a “golden compromise” with Israel and, for the first time, seems poised to limit Tel Aviv’s response to Tehran’s recent attack within a specific framework, preventing the situation from escalating further.
The United States is expected to play a crucial role in shaping how events unfold in the ongoing Middle East crisis. The framework that Biden is attempting to promote seems to be based on “reason” rather than “extremes.” Over the past 48 hours, the U.S. president has responded briefly to journalists’ questions about what will happen in the Middle East. In both instances, Biden made it clear that, first, Tehran’s nuclear facilities are not a target, and second, Iran’s oil infrastructure is not off the table.
Despite the tensions and fighting raging within Lebanon, the U.S. seems to have found the “backdoor” to soften Netanyahu’s “intransigence” and has already set up a framework for a joint response to Iran. Just a few hours ago, it was still unclear what Israel would choose to strike. Today, there seems to be an initial framework in place that may not solve the crisis’ “Gordian knot,” but it undoubtedly brings the possibility of an all-out war one step closer — but no more than that.
Although nothing can be considered certain in situations of such intensity and rapid developments, the key question today seems to have shifted from “when will the largest war in the region begin?” to “how has American diplomacy managed to impose some order on the chaos?”
It is unknown, and perhaps won’t be revealed for years, what has been agreed upon at the highest level between Israel and the U.S. — Biden and Netanyahu. However, it must be credited to the U.S. president that, despite the long list of failed attempts to persuade the Israeli Prime Minister on a range of critical aspects of the year-long crisis, he now seems to have some level of control.
It is clear that Washington has neither the desire nor the intention to turn Tel Aviv from a close partner into a regional “substitute.” Joe Biden understands that part of the blame for reaching the current crisis lies with him personally, as it was under his vice presidency during Obama’s eight-year tenure that the U.S. shifted its focus to Asia, leaving a critical gap in the region.
Predicting what will ultimately happen remains risky. However, Netanyahu’s government’s decision not to escalate tensions further or challenge Biden’s statements may indicate the way forward. After all, it is a “win-win” situation for Tel Aviv if the response to Tehran carries an American endorsement.
