The French insistence on ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon and the upcoming US presidential election creates a pressing context for Benjamin Netanyahu.

Emanuel Macron has three times in the last two weeks openly spoken of strong countermeasures against Israel to achieve a ceasefire solution first in the Gaza Strip and a second time on the Northern Front and Lebanon. Macron did not hesitate to make a blanket appeal to the West not to send weapons to Israel a move that brought a serious diplomatic incident and Benjamin Netanyahu ragingly calling it a “French disgrace”. Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron, referring to Israel’s attitude towards UN security personnel inside Lebanon, said at the close of the cabinet meeting that Israel should “not forget that it owes its very existence to a UN resolution”, again adding “fuel to the fire”.

The French President’s stance is open to interpretation but the key thing today is to look at the overall moves of the West which seems determined to deliver after 383 days of war.

The US, it turns out, has given not a simple message to Netanyahu but a 30-day ultimatum to get the humanitarian crisis in Gaza addressed. Washington is calling for the first step towards a ceasefire to be taken immediately as Israel continually cites minimal aid to civilians, time-consuming truck checks and also that the fighting raging in the enclave is putting the lives of agency personnel at extreme risk. The Americans say that September saw the smallest humanitarian aid distribution in Gaza in six months and insist that this issue must be resolved.

The Oval Office this time had no choice but to “threaten” Tel Aviv with the ultimate of sanctions, the arms embargo, as it is under pressure itself… The Israeli lobby in the US has from the beginning of the crisis opposed massive bombing in Gaza and has been calling for months for “real” pressure on Israel. The day before yesterday’s blockade of Wall Street by members of the Jewish community was not just a mobilization but a message to Kamala Harris that the time has come to do something about Gaza.

The US threat of an arms embargo on Israel is not “out of the blue” although it is not inconsistent with the rapid deployment to Tel Aviv of the US battery that arrived to make the country’s air defenses impenetrable. American pressure this time is also not an element that the Israeli prime minister can ignore and that is because with two fronts open (Gaza – Lebanon) and Iran having launched two attacks already, it is not a given that the resources (military and financial) are sufficient to complete the Israeli plan successfully.