With Sinwar now dead for 72 hours, the succession is a pressing issue not only for Hamas and Israel but also for the other “regional players” in the area.
Today, the leading candidate to succeed Sinwar is Khalil al-Hayya, though no one can definitively say if Tel Aviv or Washington will accept him. However, the interesting part about al-Hayya is not just that he is being considered for the position, but where he was when his name surfaced.
Al-Hayya, along with six other Hamas members, spent hours in talks yesterday with Turkey’s Foreign Minister, who welcomed them in Ankara just hours after Sinwar’s death. Turkish media reported that the Hamas delegation received condolences from President Erdogan through his minister, Hakan Fidan, during what was described as a “long and constructive discussion about Hamas’ future.”
The news that Hamas chose Turkey to map out its future and likely seek support guarantees is a development that Israel was undoubtedly aware of. This explains the recent social media comments from Israeli Foreign Minister Katz, who, despite the significant blow against Hamas, chose to address Ankara.
Turkey is clearly discussing Hamas’ future, but it’s evident that President Erdogan has no desire to engage in anything beyond a diplomatic battle with Israel. Yes, Ankara will support the new Hamas leader both directly and indirectly, but this time, it might push for a retreat behind the rhetoric and threats.
Qatar is expected to follow a similar approach as Turkey. Despite hosting several Hamas leaders, Doha was reportedly unaware that Ismail Haniyeh was heading toward his death during his trip to Tehran last August. Qatar has also been working to strengthen ties with the U.S., using its negotiators to draft ceasefire proposals and communicate terms first with Washington and then Tel Aviv.
The selection of the new Hamas leader is crucial for all parties involved. The decision will be thoroughly scrutinized by those across the table, and it’s clear that after more than a year of fighting, further military escalation is not the path forward. While the new Hamas leader may speak of revenge and ultimate victory, it’s hard to gain acceptance when living in self-imposed exile far from the death and starvation of those in Gaza.
