In the early evening hours today, the French National Assembly is expected to rule on the proposal for impeachment against the government of Michel Barnier, and by all indications is expected to approve it.

The debate, it has been announced, will start at 17:30 GMT and will in the first instance deal with both of the two impeachment motions that have been tabled: one from the New People’s Front of the left and one from the far-right Marine Le Pen National Rally party.

A debate will follow and then the censure motion with the highest number of signatures, namely that of the left-wing parties, will be put to a vote. Given that Marine Le Pen has made it clear that her party will vote for it, leading to the fall of the government, it seems unlikely that a vote will also be required on her own party’s impeachment motion.

As for what happens next, what is certain is that the first word will be given to President of the Republic Emanuel Macron who must reappoint a new prime minister and proceed with him to form the new government. Given the French president’s freedom of movement on this issue, the prevailing question is whether it is possible at this stage to form a new government that is not in danger of falling following a new impeachment motion, in other words, one that has parliamentary self-reliance.

Former Prime Minister Gabriel Atal, now head of the party supporting President Macron, said today that this is possible if the Socialists (who are expected to vote for the impeachment motion today) and the Republicans, (who will vote against it}, join forces with the so-called presidential majority parties.

As for the major problem of approving France’s state budget for 2025, two scenarios are possible: The first is to form a new government that will approve it in a summary procedure, and the second scenario is that, following a decision of the French National Assembly, no new budget will be drawn up – until further notice – and the state will continue to operate with the revenue and expenditure ceilings of 2024.