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The climax in the Middle East, the negotiations with the bankers before the measures, the mysterious transfers and the 41 Douzoglou companies, the new “boost” to Nova

Messages from the American Central Banker and the profit margin "cap"

Newsroom December 9 08:53

Greetings, the dramatic developments in Syria are undoubtedly the topic of the day since Saturday, as the fall of the bloodthirsty pro-Russian dictator Assad and the takeover of power by extreme jihadists do not predict smooth transitional conditions and even raise questions about the early celebrations of the French and Germans. The new global leader has already signaled, “this matter is not ours,” the Russians, apart from hosting the Assad family, do not seem to… care; on the contrary, the big winner of the situation appears to be Erdogan. In the coming days and months, the situation will be of exceptional interest, as Syria is a key country for the balance in the Middle East.

Budget-Banks

Now to our own matters, the government is preparing to submit the 2025 Budget and pass it by next Sunday, closing the “annual ceremony” with Mitsotakis, who will announce some positive measures for the new year but will also mention some negative ones for the banks, a fact he himself confirmed yesterday in his weekly note uploaded to his social media. I must note that among these measures (reductions in fees, etc.) which will be implemented through legislative regulation since the bankers themselves have not acted for so long despite the recommendations, I singled out the increase in ENFIA specifically for bank-owned properties – about 20,000 – that still remain in their possession without substantial reason. The responsible minister, Hatzidakis, who is introducing the measure, says, “it is better for the housing problem if as many of these closed bank-owned houses as possible enter the market, rather than pressing for more housing loans to be granted, as this will simply increase demand and push prices even higher.” What he says is not unreasonable; however, the banks are asking the government to allow them to sell these properties without resolving their urban planning and other pending issues. I should note that some of the 20,000 properties have huge legal issues and are probably unsellable, but fortunately, they are the minority.

Anger

I should also note that both K.M. and the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Stournaras, are completely aligned on the issue of banks – mainly regarding the meager deposit interest rates – but also angry with some of the current bank executives, particularly over the image projected to society with large personal bonuses, etc. Stournaras, in particular, says to his circle, “I went through hell during the SYRIZA era to support them personally, and I paid for it with terrifying attacks on me and my family, only to face such arrogant behavior today.” I would say that all this has some strong basis in argumentation, but the state (and its authorities) must also understand that banks are now private enterprises focused on their profit, shareholders, and management. So, let them be monitored as needed, and let the institutional tools available “reign them in” where necessary. There is the Competition Commission, there is the Capital Market Commission, and the stock market (there’s a party going on with stock games – “notes,” as they used to call them in 1999 – or do they think we’re idiots?). Let everyone do their job.

Meeting of Hatzidakis with bank CEOs

Staying on the issue of banks, which, as you can understand, dominates, I report that news of the measures to be imposed reached the banks and caused great gloom. Away from prying eyes last Friday afternoon, the bank CEOs went to the Ministry of Finance, where they met with K. Hatzidakis. I don’t think it was a pleasant discussion, and at the same time, I hear that a meeting at the technical level was also held on the initiative of the Ministry of Finance to clarify issues related to the implementation of the measures. Doing a quick rundown, we are moving legislatively toward reducing fees, increasing ENFIA for the 20,000 properties mentioned above, as servicers were already asked to provide the Ministry of Finance with a list of properties in their portfolios. Additionally, the government is focusing on better customer service at branches and will exert pressure on the issue of interest rates. Specifically, for remittance fees, the implementation of Community Directive 886 – which provides for their reduction – is a first step, and its application is being expedited.

New migratory flows

Meanwhile, today the Minister of Finance has a different agenda as he travels for the Eurogroup meeting. K. Hatzidakis will likely, on the sidelines of the Eurogroup, have the opportunity to “test” with his counterparts the measures for banks that the Prime Minister will announce during the 2025 Budget debate starting tomorrow. It seems that the measures for banks will be numerous and will require detailed specialization by the Ministry of Finance. The new major issue on the European Finance Ministers’ agenda tomorrow is clearly the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the dominance of jihadists, and the massive migratory flows – including Christian populations – it will cause.

When Th. Douzoglou Shocked Eurobank

And since we’ve made the atmosphere heavy, let’s move on to other topics, which could even be described as amusing. A few days ago, I wrote about Theodoros Douzoglou, the businessman from Venezuela who emerged in the country during the crisis, thrived in the real estate market during SYRIZA’s era, and after purchasing a multitude of properties, left most of them unutilized, staring at the ceiling. Where and how this money came from is another topic that we’ll learn about later (with the help of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority), but today I’ll focus on an outrageous incident starring Th. Douzoglou that shocked… Eurobank. Douzoglou had dealings with the bank in question, but at Eurobank, they were dumbfounded by the ease with which various affiliated companies and transactions appeared and disappeared. Douzoglou’s interactions with the bank occurred through his associates, so Eurobank, around mid-2018, requested—as it was obliged to—an update of the details of his companies. Strangely, once this happened, his associates began transacting via e-banking and, when required to attend in person, preferred branches other than the one they usually used. Eurobank employees began calling his associates. However, the requested documents didn’t arrive, and the responses they received were: “Ah, Mr. Theodoros is abroad; he will come as soon as he returns. Yes, yes, unfortunately, his sister, Ms. Maria Elena, is also abroad.” The bank persisted, and calls to Douzoglou’s associates intensified. The situation became untenable, and at the end of December 2018, during the festive holiday atmosphere, Th. Douzoglou honored Eurobank with his presence, accompanied by two of his associates at the branch. The Eurobank staff started off politely, but Mr. Theodoros wasn’t of the same disposition, as he was, to put it mildly, particularly confrontational with the staff. In short, not only did he not behave like a customer called in for explanations, but he instead went on the offensive. His behavior was extreme to the point where, among other things, he attempted to record the conversation! At that point, Douzoglou’s visit to the Eurobank branch came to an end, along with the updating of his companies’ details.

They Discovered 41 Douzoglou Companies Fueled by Unexplained Transfers

You might ask, “Do things like this pass unscathed?” What can I tell you? Douzoglou had been a Eurobank customer since 1998 and held a joint savings account with his mother, his aunt, and a gentleman who, if alive today—something I wholeheartedly wish—must be 103 years old. From 2014 onwards, 39 of Douzoglou’s companies, all in the real estate sector, gradually became bank customers, receiving over 50 million euros. At some point, Eurobank discovered two more companies affiliated with Th. Douzoglou and his sister—41 in total—and the sum of incoming capital reached 60 million euros! Simultaneously, there were numerous suspicious transfers. Some of the funds came from UBS in the U.S. When Eurobank discovered these companies and transfers, they pressured Douzoglou’s accountant-representative at the company CHALAZIAS and asked him to explain how large transfers were coming into companies that hadn’t conducted any transactions. The response was that they were loans taken out by Th. Douzoglou from UBS. Eurobank then asked for copies of the loan agreements, which are still awaited. In other Douzoglou-affiliated companies (CANAIMA, DRISTA 1, and SYSKLIPOS), in October 2018, three transfers from Maria Elena, Douzoglou’s sister, were credited. The bank again asked for explanations for these three specific transfers, and the accountant-representative responded that they were contributions for capital increases. When asked to provide documents supporting this claim, he stated that none existed. The question remains about what’s happening with all these inquiries and the fate of Eurobank’s 27-page report.

Capital Injection into Nova

Through a bond loan issued by a subsidiary of the parent company United Group, NOVA will receive financing. The amount of the (unsecured) bond loan is 30 million euros and is covered by United’s Dutch subsidiary, Adria Cable. It will take the form of revolving credit, has a 10-year duration, and matures on 11/30/2034, with an annual fixed interest rate of 7.5%. As stated in the recent decision approving the loan, its issuance is deemed absolutely necessary for financing the issuer’s working capital. NOVA is carrying out investments focusing on 5G and optical fibers, with the parent company United Group having announced a 2 billion euro plan for the Greek market by 2027, over 800 million of which has already been invested, as the company has reported. The company aims to bring—via United Fiber—fiber optics to 1 million homes and businesses across Greece by the first quarter of 2026. Regarding the competitive process for NOVA’s sale, it remains ongoing but with many back-and-forths and alternative models being considered, including separating telecommunications and media (subscription TV) operations—a scenario that had been mentioned since the beginning of the process. As for investor interest, Etisalat (E&) and Saudi Telecom Company (STC) appear to remain keen, but it remains to be seen to what extent a deal involving Arab capital can be reached and how demanding the initial valuations have become. Meanwhile, separate competitive processes are underway for United Group’s other subsidiaries in the Balkans.

The Livanis Family and the New Auctions

It seems unlikely that the ordeal of Ilias Livanis and his sister Giota with the auctions will end soon. Although last year and this year the legal representatives of the well-known publisher fought hard legal battles and achieved a series of annulment rulings for auctions concerning various properties of his, including his residence on Lycabettus and the historic headquarters of Livanis Publications in the neoclassical building on the corner of Solonos and Hippocrates streets in Athens, as the column has learned, a new cycle of online auctions begins next year… Of course, it is considered likely that there will also be appeals and cancellations for these auctions. Nevertheless, for January 8, 2025, the Cepal has scheduled an auction against the Livanis Publishing Organization (New Borders) for a plot of 2,394.53 sq.m. in the BIO.PA Ano Liosia. On the plot is an old container – bin, part of the fence has been removed, and cars are parked there. The debt amounts to 662,335 euros, and the starting price is set at 720,000 euros. Another auction against Ilias Livanis is scheduled for February 12, 2025, initiated by doValue, concerning a first-floor apartment in a building on Markou Botsari Street in Filothei, with a starting price of 590,000 euros. This apartment was also attempted to be auctioned last year, but the process was canceled following an appeal. The relevant document states that it was scheduled for September 13, 2023, but “was suspended following the ordering of the initiator.” A few days later, on February 20, 2025, another auction is scheduled against Ilias and Panagiota Livanis, initiated by Cepal, for a plot of 242.70 sq.m. in Patras, at the “Eschatovounio” location in the Vlatero neighborhood, on Odysseas Androutsou Street. The starting price is set at 77,000 euros. Another auction against Ilias Livanis, initiated by Cepal, is being prepared for March 12, which is particularly “heavy,” as it concerns his father Antonis’s residence in Kifissia, where annual gatherings were held for his name day, attended by numerous political and economic figures. The properties, specifically an apartment, parking spaces, and storage, are in a “luxury 35-year-old complex with 6 building volumes, including 8 buildings of two and three floors, a unified underground area with parking spaces and storage, and a four-story tower built much earlier,” according to the relevant description, which is located on a 7-acre plot in the “Pigadakia” area of the Kifissia Municipality, on 31 Tatoiou Street. Specifically, it is a two-story apartment (maisonette) that occupies part of the ground floor and the first floor and consists of a living room, W.C., and kitchen on the ground floor and a bathroom, hallway, three bedrooms, and two balconies on the first floor, with a total area of 144.72 sq.m. In the same auction – if it takes place – two underground parking spaces of 14.88 sq.m. and 12 sq.m., as well as an underground storage room of 5.36 sq.m., will be auctioned. The total starting price is set at 487,000 euros, of which 456,000 euros concern the maisonette. Finally, for May 14, 2025, an auction is scheduled against Ilias and Panagiota Livanis (again initiated by Cepal) for ownership rights on three plots of land in the Porto Rafti area, with a total starting price of 71,400 euros.

IT: Two Executive Moves and…One Merger

Fifteen days ago, Google presented the Google Cloud Office in Athens, and the day after tomorrow, it presents AI Connect, its answer to artificial intelligence challenges. All this while the market has already anticipated Peggy Antonakou’s departure from Athens for a higher position. On Friday, the departure of IBM’s country manager Nikos Maniatis, after only 2 years in the position (a record short tenure for IBM), was confirmed. Market rumors suggest N. Maniatis will head a specialized fund in the IT sector in Greece. However, the big surprise of the days will come this Friday: SoftOne and Entersoft “will join in marriage,” creating – without a doubt – the National Champion in the business software field. Entersoft consolidated its subsidiaries, gathered its assets, and is preparing for the grand wedding. SoftOne has been ready for some time, and its only concern is the distribution of roles in the new scheme. Sources say the merger will take months, so we start now with cooperation and coordination between the two companies. More announcements in the IT sector are expected as the year is not yet over.

The PDMA Rushes to Exploit SCOPE’s Upgrade

With two – quick – moves, the Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) wants to exploit the positive market momentum caused by the announcement of a GDP growth of +2.5%, as well as the first upgrade of the Greek economy, within the investment grade, by the German Scope. The country’s borrowing needs for 2025 do not exceed 8 billion euros. The PDMA’s new strategy foresees only two new bond issues (the first will occur in early January), both of shorter duration than a decade. Additionally, 10 reissues of older bonds are planned on agreed dates. The two new issues will happen relatively early because all indications are that Eurozone member states will need to find buyers for bonds worth 670 billion euros in 2025 to meet their borrowing needs. Greece does not want to get involved in this flood of state securities in 2025.

Profit Margin “Cap” Until April 2025

A bill that Development Minister T. Theodorikakos will submit to the Parliament Plenary tomorrow provides for the maintenance and extension of the “flagship enterprises” institution even after the completion of the Resilience and Recovery Fund. The “flagship investments” include the shipbuilding industry, the blue economy, and “critical materials.” The circular economy, which is a key feature not only for the green transition but also mainly for reducing the cost of professional activities, is included. The bill also extends the “profit cap” established during the pandemic until the end of April 2025. It prohibits businesses from having a higher profit margin than in December 2021. Finally, the regime of Sustainability Reports, which are now mandatory for businesses, not only for environmental protection but also for transparency, is changing. From now on, audits will not only be conducted by certified auditors but also by specialized scientists accredited by the National Accreditation System (ESYD).

Looking Ahead to December 15

>Related articles

The match of the Inquiry Committee kicks off (with K.M. present): the bioscandal (green specks…), the immobile conscription of Rafina, K3 (hot stuff), and Steggos diving into the waste game

Domestic (non)spats… a touch of modesty, water breaking, Alexis’ little fox, the Planet master, Lara and Galaxidi, and the EYATH scenarios ///

The green Terra Cert and the… organic laundering, Dendias’ weapons and the military draft, two giants bidding for the lotteries, and David’s villa

The unexpected “Santa Klaus rally” came early on Athens Avenue, catching many active market players off guard. Last week, with 5 consecutive upward sessions, was undoubtedly the best of 2024 (+4.52%) and the best since May 2023 for the Athens Stock Exchange. Now many expect this process to be completed around mid-December when institutional investors close their books, given that the average prices of December will count in their portfolio evaluations. Today and tomorrow, attention is focused on the established high-level Greek meeting in New York, with Capital Link. Many now believe that the “London miracle” that brought massive purchases after presentations in London (Morgan Stanley) and Prague (Wood) may be repeated. In any case, the Greek narrative is positive and convincing, but also relatively cheap. FTSE 25 stocks trade at just 10 times 2025 earnings and have an average dividend yield of 4.9% in a declining interest rate environment. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut its rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday to 3%. The Athens Stock Exchange is worth just 103 billion euros and has offered a +12.73% return since the beginning of the year.

Messages from the American Central Banker

In New York, the chances of a quarter-point dollar rate cut at the Fed meeting ending on December 18 have now risen to 85%. Last week, the chances were 71%. Until the day of the announcements and the messages from Jerome Powell, we have a series of developments: Today, the New York Fed officially announces its consumer inflation estimates. The day after tomorrow, OPEC’s Monthly Report on oil prices will be released, followed by U.S. Consumer Price Index data for November. On Thursday, the PPI index is released, and later, the unemployment benefit claims. On Friday, U.S. Import/Export Price Index data. All these developments lead up to – and shape the framework for – the dollar rate announcements.

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