An anti-aircraft Pantsir S1 missile, allegedly fired by poorly trained personnel loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov, a close Chechen ally of Putin, is the main “suspect” for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane near Aktau. Azerbaijani media, citing Russian experts, report that the Azerbaijani government is awaiting an apology from Russia, along with full details of the incident. However, the Russian side strongly denies these allegations, dismissing them as speculative.

According to experts, the surface-to-air missile likely did not directly hit the passenger plane, as it was flying at a high altitude—approximately 2,400 meters—but instead caused damage to its hydraulic systems and oxygen tanks with its shrapnel. The incident reportedly occurred over the Naursky region of Chechnya, which hosts numerous military installations equipped with air defense systems. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was unequivocal: “It would be wrong to make assumptions before the investigation concludes. We, of course, will not do this, and no one else should. We need to wait for the investigation to finish.”

Russian Expert: “It Was Pantsir”
As Euronews reports Azerbaijani government sources confirming that flight 8432, which departed from the nation’s capital Baku en route to Grozny, was struck by a surface-to-air missile, Russian military analyst and expert Yan Matveyev identifies the weapon as the small, Soviet-era Pantsir S1 anti-aircraft missile. Such air defense systems, along with “Barnaul-T” systems, are located in the Grozny area, according to Azerbaijani news agency Turan.

“The plane was damaged by something that strongly resembles an anti-aircraft missile. And it’s really very, very difficult to assume otherwise without serious evidence,” Matveyev said. “In general, it seems the tail section of the aircraft was damaged by missile shrapnel, likely from a Pantsir S1 or a similar small missile system with a relatively small warhead.”

Euronews cites Azerbaijani government sources stating that the missile was fired at the aircraft during drone activity (most likely Ukrainian) over Grozny, with shrapnel striking passengers and cabin crew as it exploded near the aircraft mid-flight. Yan Matveyev confirmed the presence of Ukrainian drones over Chechnya at the time of the crash and suggested it was likely hit by Russian air defense.

“What was happening on Russian territory, within the Chechen Republic, at the time the plane was flying there, points to a possible attack from an air defense system, specifically the Pantsir S1 system, because Ukrainian drones were flying there at that time,” he stated. According to the military expert, numerous damages to the aircraft fuselage—from the tail section to the midsection—indicate shrapnel impact. This would occur when a Pantsir-S1 missile strikes an aircraft, Matveyev explained, adding that the fact the plane was not completely shot down might be due to its altitude and the missile’s insufficient power to immediately incapacitate the aircraft.

Final Moments of the Flight
Turan reports that before crashing in Aktau, the plane attempted to land in Grozny, where drone attacks were ongoing at the time. Hamzat Kadyrov, nephew of Ramzan Kadyrov and Secretary of the Security Council, claimed on Instagram that all targets were neutralized. However, the survivors’ accounts paint a vivid picture, as passengers reported hearing two explosions and feeling the fuselage’s impact. Shrapnel pierced the fuselage, injuring some passengers.

The question now is whether Ramzan Kadyrov and the Russian leadership will admit responsibility, issue an apology, and compensate the victims, as official Baku did when a Russian helicopter was shot down on November 8, 2020, on the Nakhchivan-Armenia border.

Dramatic Communications
The reason the plane was not directed to Makhachkala or Vladikavkaz in Grozny is attributed to adverse weather conditions, according to transcripts of communications between the pilot and air traffic controllers in Grozny published by the Telegram channel “VChK-OGPU.” “My plane is losing control,” the pilot reported during the approach to Grozny. The crew made multiple failed attempts to land in Grozny before the GPS system stopped working. According to ‘Flightradar24,’ this was due to GPS jamming aimed at Ukrainian drones operating in Chechnya at the time. The electronic interference also disrupted the pilot’s communications with dispatchers, effectively “blinding” the aircraft.

When the crew decided to redirect the plane to Baku, the pilot reported a strong impact. Initially, he believed the aircraft had collided with a flock of birds. Shortly after, the aircraft’s controls and hydraulics began to fail. Attempts to land at Minvody were thwarted by strong winds and fog, as was the case in Makhachkala. The pilot eventually reported losing control and declared an emergency at 8:24 AM. Communication with dispatchers in Grozny was then cut off, and control was transferred to dispatchers in Rostov.

According to “VChK-OGPU,” the missile impact occurred over the Naursky region of Chechnya, where several military units with air defense systems are stationed. Based on communications transcripts, the pilot initially mistook the strong impact for a bird strike. The incident occurred approximately 18 kilometers north of Grozny Airport at an altitude of 2,400 meters.

Crew Hailed as Heroes
As dramatic details emerge about the final moments of Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8432, which crashed Wednesday in Aktau, so do accounts of the crew’s heroic efforts to save passengers until the very last moment. In Azerbaijan, the flight’s crew members are being treated as heroes.

Azerbaijan Airlines released the names of the five crew members, identifying Igor Kshnyakin and Aleksandr Kalyaninov as the pilots and Hokuma Aliyeva, Zulfugar Asadov, and Aydan Rahimli as flight attendants. Captain Igor Kshnyakin, co-pilot Aleksandr Kalyaninov, and flight attendant Hokuma Aliyeva lost their lives in the crash landing, while the two remaining attendants, Zulfugar Asadov and Aydan Rahimli, reportedly survived and are hospitalized with injuries.

According to the airline, the Embraer 190 aircraft carried 37 Azerbaijani citizens, six from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan, and 16 Russian nationals. A total of 29 passengers survived the crash, while 38 lost their lives as the pilots attempted an emergency landing near the city of Aktau in Kazakhstan.