– Greetings. Yesterday, on what was essentially the first working day of the new year, there weren’t any major headlines in the news cycle. The buzz over various statements regarding Simitis’ death continued. For instance, Diamantopoulou spoke up yesterday and went after Androulakis—if I understood correctly—because, she said, only Adonis defended the late statesman against the vulgarities of Latinopoulou. Now, I may be the last person to defend “big boss” Nikos, but come on, Ms. Anna, why get into this? If you think it’s necessary, just issue a statement yourself condemning Afro and be done with it. Why wait for someone else? Did Adonis wait for Mitsotakis to give him the green light to take on Latinopoulou? Not to mention that she changed her statement on platform X three times and barely walked it back—stuff we wouldn’t even pull off during student elections, Annoula. By the way, I always thought Afro was smarter than to make such a dumb yet so vulgar statement. Her friends who advise her better rein her in because the path she’s on, like Kassidiaris’, leads straight into a wall… my word.

The Cabinet Reshuffle…

Now, the big decisions will come at the end of the month. First, K.M. has to resolve the matter of the Presidency, as required, and then what I see as the more pressing issue arises: the reshuffling of his government.Here’s the situation: one school of thought is that Mitsotakis will delay the reshuffle, as “things are running smoothly in his parliamentary group, so why stir the pot and upset those who’ll be left out again, etc.” But there’s a stronger argument that says, “With the need to replace two ministers for reasons of force majeure, why not seize the moment in the coming days and go for a sweeping reshuffle to also fix the government’s numerous missteps?”I’m not betting on either outcome because, honestly, trying to predict Mitsotakis’ moves on cabinet reshuffles is pure gambling—you never know where the roulette ball will land.

AlUla and Fragkogiannis

Yesterday, the Foreign Ministry’s leadership met at the PM’s HQ to prepare for today’s trip by the Prime Minister to Cairo. One of those present at the Maximos Mansion was Deputy Foreign Minister Kostas Fragkogiannis. I mentioned a few days ago—albeit without naming names—that his departure from his position for personal reasons is “locked in.” The general expectation is that this change will take place after Mitsotakis’ trip to AlUla, Saudi Arabia, on Monday and Tuesday for the supreme council meeting between the two nations, specifically with MBS’s government. The leading candidate to replace him, as I’ve previously noted, Tasos Chatzivasileiou, is scheduled to join Mitsotakis’ trip to Berlin next Friday for a meeting with Friedrich Merz. I’m told Fragkogiannis will remain in the government as a consultant to K.M. on extroversion policies, with an office at the Maximos Mansion.

Mitsotakis and Sakellaropoulou

Next week, most likely on the 15th of the month, K.M. will cross the threshold of the Presidential Mansion to meet Katerina Sakellaropoulou. They were originally set to meet this Thursday, but Simitis’ funeral has caused a brief postponement. This will be their last meeting before the Prime Minister announces his intentions regarding the Presidency. These intentions will either be revealed during that timeframe or slightly delayed until the following week, after the 20th of the month. As they say at the Presidential Mansion, “Let this soul finally speak out!”—they’re waiting to hear the PM’s decision. In the name-trading “stock market,” Sakellaropoulou’s chances aren’t looking great these days, as I also mentioned yesterday.

Adonis’ Announcements on Emergency Rooms

A source of mine spotted Adonis Georgiadis entering the PM’s HQ yesterday, and I hear that a wide-ranging meeting took place regarding changes the government is planning for the operation of Emergency Departments, which remain a major “wound” in the national health system (ESY). Adonis was supposed to make announcements this week, but Simitis’ funeral caused delays. A press conference is now likely on Monday. The planned interventions will be significant, with the goal of reducing average waiting times by 50%.

What Goldman Sachs Tells Its Key Clients About 2025

Goldman Sachs is giving two main pieces of advice to its major clients for 2025: prioritize U.S. assets and stay invested. A memo on the prospects for the new year notes that the gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world in key economic and financial market indicators has widened further. Clients are reportedly asking whether they should reduce positions in U.S. stocks due to their strong performance, whether they should buy European equities, or shift to cash and bonds. The analysts’ answer is a resounding no. They recommend a moderate reduction in U.S. equities to fund investments in private assets. They do not advocate zero exposure to non-U.S. equities, acknowledging that U.S. stock markets are unlikely to maintain the rapid growth seen over the past 15 years.

Stick to Stocks, Avoid Gold and Bitcoin

Goldman notes that while U.S. equities are expensive compared to markets outside the U.S., this valuation gap reflects structural weaknesses in the Eurozone economies and most emerging markets.

They predict U.S. equities will outperform medium-term bonds and U.S. cash in 2025 (GDP growth forecast at 2.3%), only underperforming if a recession occurs this year—a scenario they assign a 20% probability.

They don’t see gold, bitcoin, or cryptocurrencies playing a strategic role in client portfolios. Regarding gold, they argue that the risk/reward profile isn’t attractive. As for cryptocurrencies, they suggest they’re more suitable for gambling than investment portfolios.

Finally, they don’t view U.S. debt as a threat for the next decade. Instead, they identify geopolitical tensions—with Russia, North Korea, and China fueling them—as the biggest risk of the new year.

Here is the translated text as closely aligned with the original meaning, including idiomatic expressions and humorous tones:

The (70% and climbing) “haircut” at Avramar

Within the first quarter, the agreement with Aquabridge for Avramar is expected to close, as it was deemed to offer the best recovery for creditor banks among all submitted proposals. However, several pending issues remain (legal and financial audits, etc.), and dealings with funds—whether Arab or otherwise—require patience. Nevertheless, there is an initial framework on which all parties are working, involving a “haircut” of obligations estimated at over 70%, while all obligations to suppliers will be fully paid. Avramar, which emerged from the merger of Nireus, Selonda, and Andromeda, remains the largest player in Greek aquaculture. It is expected to be bolstered with new capital in the range of €80 million. Overall, there is a restart plan that could include a comprehensive review of its domestic operations, as its Spanish operations have already changed ownership.

The Mini Placement by Motor Oil

Motor Oil is set to offer 250,000 of its shares (0.23% of the company’s share capital) in a move expected to raise at least €5 million. These shares were acquired through the company’s share buyback program at an average purchase price of €13.52 per share. The company has set a minimum sale price of €20 per share, 48% higher than the average acquisition price. Yesterday, Motor Oil’s stock closed at €21.30 on the Athens Exchange, meaning the mini placement will be carried out at a slight discount of approximately 6% to the current price. The decision for the placement was made last week, and the process begins today, Wednesday, likely to conclude on the same day. The market, however, has offered various interpretations about the number of shares being offered, as according to the latest update (November 2024), Motor Oil holds over 3.1 million treasury shares, representing more than 2.85% of its share capital.

Vryzas vs. Salpingidis and the Gavel That Won’t Strike

The legendary “feud” between former international strikers Zisis Vryzas and Dimitris Salpingidis over an old debt and a house in Halkidiki has often made headlines. The story began in 2013, when Vryzas borrowed €65,000 from Salpingidis but failed to repay it. This led to Vryzas’ seaside maisonette in Afytos, Halkidiki, appearing on auction platforms. Although several auctions were scheduled since last May, each time the process was suspended at the last moment. The latest auction was set for December 18, with a starting bid of €200,000, but once again, it didn’t take place. This time, the explanation came directly from Salpingidis, who stated that he maintains a relationship and communication with Vryzas and that their financial dispute is strictly a private matter. “The resolution of this issue, how and when it will happen, is purely personal,” he said, with reports suggesting there is an arrangement for partial debt repayment. However, the truth is that the relevant auction has already been rescheduled for the new year, specifically February 19, 2025. Nevertheless, it seems to be more of a procedural “safety valve,” so the gavel isn’t expected to strike.

The People Behind Skyline Real Estate

The headquarters of Skyline Real Estate, the property company involved in the Skyline project with the participation of Alpha Bank and the joint investment group of Dimand, Premia, and EBRD, has moved to Dimand’s offices at 115 Nerantziotissis Street, Maroussi. The company’s share capital amounts to €203.1 million. According to the company’s charter, specific restrictions apply to the transfer of shares, such as the right of first offer, the right of tag-along, and the right of participatory transfer of shares. Under no circumstances can a third party acquire shares in the company if, among other criteria, it is a systemically significant institution—except for Alpha Bank S.A. and its affiliated companies—or if it controls (or is controlled by) a Greek systemic bank other than Alpha Bank S.A. and its affiliates. The Board of Directors consists of seven members, including Dimitris Andriopoulos as chairman, Dimitris Raptis as CEO, and members such as Iliad Georgiadis, major shareholder of Premia Properties REIC, Dimitris Afentoulis, head of Marianna Latsi’s family office, Nadia Nikitea Theoharaki, George Vourvahakis, and Ioannis Ganos, CEO of ALPHA Real Estate Services. The latter has signed an initial seven-year agreement for real estate management services with Skyline.

JP Morgan’s New Greek Event

Last year, at the end of January, JP Morgan organized a major roadshow exclusively featuring 24 Greek stocks in New York, attended by Jamie Dimon. This year, JP Morgan is aiming to host another large-scale Greek event but will first await Trump’s inauguration and his initial announcements. This means the roadshow is likely postponed until early February. While JP Morgan remains particularly cautious about the outlook for European bank stocks, it is notably optimistic about Greek stocks, especially regarding earnings and—most importantly—dividends. Beyond increased lending, JP Morgan also sees revenues from financial services, including mergers and acquisitions.

Fines That Finally Worked

For the first time in three years, Greece recorded a decline in supermarket food prices, according to Eurostat data. The quintuple increase in fines imposed by the Ministry of Development, combined with intensified inspections and various “baskets,” resulted in a -0.2% drop in December for the composite index of food, alcohol, and tobacco. Particularly noteworthy are the figures from FMCG Market Dynamics, which show that for the first time, the nominal turnover growth of supermarkets matches the increase in transaction volumes rather than price hikes. In 2023, nominal turnover grew by +10.2%, while transaction volumes fell by -0.7%. For 2024, the data suggests both metrics (volume and turnover) are rising in tandem.

Stock Market: Already Surpassed 2024’s High

With gains in 3 out of 3 trading sessions and transactions worth €167.5 million (€17.3 million in block trades), the General Index has already surpassed the highest level it reached in May 2024 (1,505.35 points) during intraday trading and is looking optimistically toward the future. The day’s sentiment was aptly captured by Alpha Bank, which, at 10:56 AM, saw a large block trade of 1.36 million shares worth €2.25 million exchanged at €1.65 per share. Evidently, the professional managing this order quickly realized that the sooner they executed the trade, the cheaper it would be, a decision validated as Alpha Bank closed with a +3.18% increase at €1.702. Later in the day, banking stocks emerged as the clear leaders of yesterday’s session, accounting for over €100 million of the total trading value. Motor Oil, at €21.3, reached its highest level in the last four months, recovering from the shock of the major fire in September. Jumbo at €26.6 and Cenergy at €9.83 were quick to pick up on the market’s positive signals, gaining +2.9%, while Aegean Airlines soared again to €10.6, up +2.2%. The energy sector in all its forms saw significant transactions and positive performances, as did OPAP at €15.99 (+1.59%), while Coca-Cola awaits improved sentiment in European markets, which began the day without Greece’s enthusiasm, at €33.38.

€7 Billion Energy Investment in Turkey
SOCAR, the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan, revealed details yesterday of an ambitious new “Master Plan” for a major investment initiative by its subsidiary in Turkey, SOCAR Türkiye. The group plans to invest $7 billion in petrochemical facilities for expansion and modernization, focusing on sustainable development, including the production of environmentally friendly aviation fuels. The initial feasibility study has already been completed, and the process is now advancing to the Pre-FEED (Pre-Front End Engineering Design) and then the FEED (Front End Engineering Design) stages for detailed technical analysis. The Trump era is bringing more petrochemical investments with a “green twist.”

Trump Era Begins with 25 Executive Orders
Wall Street considers it a given: Donald Trump has already prepared 25 executive orders to be announced after his inauguration on January 20. One of these orders will repeal key regulations from the Biden era, triggering significant changes in energy markets. During a recent rally in Phoenix, Trump reiterated his intention to sign a series of first-day executive orders targeting energy policy. These include lifting Biden’s restrictions on energy production, ending subsidies for electric vehicles, canceling the ban on natural gas exports, and reopening Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) for drilling. Trump’s goal is to boost domestic energy production. By reducing regulatory hurdles, he aims to revive the fossil fuel industry. This includes large-scale production of coal, natural gas, and oil, particularly in regions like Alaska. The reopening of ANWR—potentially one of the largest untapped oil fields globally—could alone disrupt global energy market balances. Companies managing oil fields, exploration and production firms, and infrastructure companies stand to benefit significantly as regulatory restrictions ease. Additionally, Trump’s focus on energy independence could bolster investments in “midstream” energy companies, including pipeline operators, as new projects will now receive approvals more easily and quickly.