The container shipping sector seems to be the biggest loser from the trade conflict between the US and China, while tankers and LNG carriers are showing greater resilience. According to international analysts, the escalation of tariffs and countermeasures is changing trade flows, with significant implications for shipping.

New conditions in the oil market
US President Donald Trump decided to suspend tariffs on the two largest exporters of crude oil to the US, Canada and Mexico, for 30 days, but insisted on the imposition of tariffs on China. In response, Beijing imposed 15% tariffs on imports of coal and LNG from the US, and starting February 10, additional 10% tariffs will be added on crude oil, as well as on products like agricultural equipment, machinery, and vehicles.

This development may lead to a redistribution of crude oil trade flows. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico could force the US to turn to other markets for imports, increasing the demand for longer-distance crude transport and creating favorable conditions for tankers.

A heavy blow to container shipping
On the other hand, the container shipping market is expected to take a heavy hit. According to Jorgen Lian, a shipping analyst at DNB Markets, this sector is expected to be most affected by the new trade policy of the US. As he mentions, during the previous trade war, demand for container transport dropped noticeably, with imports from North America accounting for 16% of the global trade in the sector.

Protectionism is expected to slow down global economic growth, negatively affecting trade. At the same time, car transportation companies may also be hit, as tariffs on vehicle, truck, and trailer imports from the US have been imposed.

LNG shipping and alternative markets
In contrast, LNG shipping seems to be more resilient to the impacts of the trade war. The US is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, with Europe absorbing the largest share of exports and a smaller percentage directed towards China.

According to DNB Markets, tariffs are not expected to significantly disrupt the LNG market dynamics, as there are multiple alternatives for trade flows. US exports can be redirected to other markets, limiting the impact of Beijing’s countermeasures.

The US-China trade war is expected to significantly affect the shipping sector, with container transport being hit the hardest. In contrast, tankers may benefit from the new redistribution of oil flows, while LNG transportation seems largely unaffected due to alternative trade routes. International shipping is now called upon to adapt to the new realities created by geopolitical and commercial developments.