The process of the Greek-Turkish rapprochement is running into the obstacle of Turkish claims and challenges to Greek sovereignty and sovereign rights with the imposition of the “Blue Homeland” on the ground, with the expected summit meeting Kyriakos Mitsotakis – Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara may lead to the opposite of the expected results, if until then no way of understanding with Turkey has been found, at least on practical issues concerning the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. And all this while on both sides of the Aegean they are trying to decode the first signs of Donald Trump’s policy in the region.

And all this while both sides of the Aegean are trying to decode the first signs of the policy that Donald Trump will follow in the region.

The provocations block Greek-Turkish… meetings – The rapprochement again crashes against Turkish claims and the “Blue Homeland.”

The developments of the past few months, which have intensified the environment of Greek-Turkish relations, are also the reason for the continuous postponement of the convening of the Supreme Cooperation Council in Ankara, as well as the “game” played by the Turkish side regarding its convening date.

It is evident that the statement by Fidan, which set the summit meeting for April, sought to preempt the Greek side while also trying to counter the Turkish publications claiming that the SSC is being indefinitely postponed due to Greece’s objections to Turkey’s involvement in the Cyprus-Crete electricity interconnection project.

The convening of the SSC

From the Greek side, it is emphasized that the date for the SSC has not been finalized yet, although it had been initially planned for the beginning of 2025. Athens reminds that the extended conference on the Cyprus issue will be held in Switzerland in March, followed by Ramadan/Bayram, which concludes in early April.

It is clear that the reasons for the continued postponement of the SSC towards spring are not just procedural. Since July, with the incident near Kasos, Turkey has systematically insisted on questioning Greek sovereign rights and sovereignty with field actions, raising the issue of the demilitarization of the islands, reacting to the country’s defense program, and at the same time, arbitrarily interpreting the Athens Declaration and invoking the Bern Protocol in an effort to force Greece to relinquish its sovereign rights, even in the center of the Aegean.

The latest incident, involving the dispatch of a Turkish corvette north of Crete to monitor the research by two Italian ships in international waters for the laying of the electricity interconnection cable, constitutes a serious escalation, particularly due to the content of the message it transmitted via radio to the two research ships. The message stated that the area is not under Greek jurisdiction and is not a delineated area, referring to a zone north of Agios Nikolaos, about 3 miles from Greek territorial waters and just east of the 25th meridian.

With this message, Turkey essentially raised the issue of the “Blue Homeland,” as this area, which clearly falls under Greek continental shelf, is also part of the area Turkey has labeled the “Blue Homeland,” covered by the “lines” it drew between Turkey and Libya’s baseline for the illegal delimitation of the Turkey-Libya Memorandum.

The concerns of Athens were reinforced by the statement from sources within the Turkish Ministry of Defense last Thursday regarding the incident north of Crete, saying, “In areas where we have rights and interests, as we did in the past, so now and in the future, we will intervene in activities that Greece is trying to conduct, imposing faits accomplis.”

The provocations block Greek-Turkish… meetings – The rapprochement again crashes against Turkish claims and the “Blue Homeland.”

With the Kasos incident, Turkey had officially defended, on the ground, the alleged Turkish continental shelf attributed to it by the Turkey-Libya Memorandum, preventing research east of Kasos beyond Greek territorial waters of 6 nm without its permission. With the latest incident, Turkey essentially demands the cessation of all kinds of activities (which do not even concern hydrocarbons) throughout the seabed of international waters in the Aegean.

Thus, Turkey aims to restrict Greece to within 6 nm and impose its consistent stance on the limited or no influence of the islands in a delimitation that, according to Turkey’s view, should be based on the median line between the two opposing continental shores, placing Turkey in the middle of the Aegean.

Blue Homeland

The issue, of course, is that the research, as well as the laying of the cable itself, does not concern the continental shelf nor require the consent of the coastal state, as it relates to the freedom of the seas in international waters, according to the Law of the Sea. However, Turkey attempts to exploit these research activities to promote and impose its positions on the delimitation.

This effort also ties into the challenge over the area of jurisdiction for issuing NAVTEX, which Turkey seeks to equate with the extent of the “Blue Homeland.”

This is why, in July, near Kasos, taking advantage of the announcement of the coordinates of the research of the “Ievoli Relume” to the Turkish authorities, it issued its own NAVTEX for research in international waters, even though the area belongs to the Greek EEZ, as defined by the Greece-Egypt Agreement, overlapping the illegal Turkey-Libya Memorandum.

At the same time, plans for the marine park in the Aegean, which are awaiting final approval from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as the delayed submission of the Marine Spatial Planning to the European Commission, and the decree for the wind farms in the Aegean remain stuck. Turkey has raised the issue of “gray zones,” claiming that no Greek plan can proceed if it includes islands and islets whose sovereignty it questions. Meanwhile, Turkey also opposes the fact that the potential EEZ of the country should be mapped according to the Law of the Sea.

In the near future, Athens will need to make decisions regarding the advancement of all these plans. There is also pressure to continue the research in the “hot zone” east of the territorial waters of Kasos, concerning the electricity interconnection.

Foreign Ministers Giorgos Gerapetritis and Hakan Fidan have attempted to find a modus vivendi, since, beyond the electricity interconnection, in the coming period, there will continuously be requests for the laying of cables – mainly telecommunications and data – from the Eastern Mediterranean region, which cannot be obstructed due to Turkish objections.

However, even in their last meeting in Doha, according to diplomatic sources, these issues were raised by Mr. Gerapetritis, but it is clear there was no agreement, as the Turkish corvette was approaching just hours before, north of Crete, to harass the two Italian research vessels via radio.

It is clear that a summit meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Erdoğan, under this climate, would likely lead to the confirmation of a complete impasse and a reaffirmation of Turkish claims, rather than sending a positive message for maintaining “calm waters.”

Turkey is resurrecting the inactive Bern Protocol (1976), which concerned a moratorium on oil exploration outside territorial waters for as long as the negotiations were ongoing at the time, while it also appears to be arbitrarily interpreting the Athens Declaration (2023). Specifically, it focuses on the article that states:

“The Parties are committed to refrain from any statement, initiative, or action that could undermine or depreciate the letter and spirit of this Declaration or put at risk the maintenance of peace and stability in their region.”

Direct challenge

Turkey, which repeatedly and directly challenges Greek sovereignty and sovereign rights, hastens to interpret this article according to its own will, claiming that research in international waters for cable laying, measures taken for the country’s defense, as well as statements – such as those by Minister of National Defense Nikos Dendias, which acknowledge Turkish revisionism and the threat it poses to Greece and regional stability – violate the spirit and letter of the Declaration.

In his interview with Anadolu, Mr. Fidan was clear, stating that “it is important to avoid provocative and provocative steps,” clearly targeting Mr. Dendias. He also mentioned that “from time to time, you can see that in Greek internal politics, the Turkish issue is a sector for some politicians to quickly gain credits.”

Mr. Dendias has irritated Ankara not only with his statements in New York, where he declared, “I am not at all optimistic about the continuation of calm waters due to Turkey’s stance,” but also with his intervention to prevent the sale of French Meteors to Turkey. Furthermore, he has annoyed Ankara with his references to the fact that the West should not abandon its Kurdish allies in Northern Syria.

Minority

The posts from Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense on January 29, in which they expressed support for the “Turks of Western Thrace,” even displaying (in the Ministry of Defense’s post) the flag of the “Independent Government of Western Thrace,” as well as the continuous reports in the state news agency Anadolu about the “problems of the Turkish minority in Western Thrace,” indicate that Turkey persists in its position that a Greek-Turkish dialogue should not only include all of its claims against our country as a package, but should also extend to negotiations on the “minority issue.”

Even the matter of the reopening of the Halki Seminary, despite promises from Erdoğan himself to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, seems to be conditioned on reciprocity, with Turkey demanding exchanges in Thrace. This is happening despite the fact that the reopening of the Seminary is an obligation for Turkey under the protection of religious freedoms and should not be subject to reciprocity.

Turkey’s Minister of Education, Yusuf Tekin, in an interview, mentioned that negotiations for the reopening of the Seminary are continuing, but he hastened to link it to Thrace, stating: “The Lausanne Treaty guarantees the educational and other rights of minorities living in Turkey, including the right to religious education. The same situation applies in Western Thrace, and more specifically for the Turks of Western Thrace in Greece.”