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The Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is hovering around the 5% threshold. As of 2 a.m. Greek time, with results from 267 out of 299 electoral districts counted, the party was exactly at this mark.
If BSW surpasses the 5% threshold and enters Parliament, the CDU/CSU will be forced to form a three-party coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. This is because the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats together would hold 309 seats—seven short of the 316 needed for an absolute majority. Including the Greens in a “Kenya coalition” would bring the total to 393 seats.
On the other hand, if BSW fails to pass the 5% threshold, the CDU/CSU could secure an absolute majority by forming a coalition solely with the SPD.
FDP Leader Christian Lindner Resigns
FDP leader Christian Lindner officially confirmed his resignation from the party’s leadership late at night, following his party’s exclusion from the federal lower house of Parliament.
Earlier, during the “Berlin Round”—the televised gathering of party leaders on public television after the election results were announced—he had already hinted that he would step down if the FDP was indeed left out of Parliament.
“The federal elections brought a defeat for the FDP, but we hope for a new beginning for Germany. That’s what I fought for. Now, I am withdrawing from active politics, with only one feeling: gratitude for nearly 25 intense years filled with challenges, plans, and debates,” Christian Lindner stated via X.
AfD Gained Over 4 Million Voters
According to research by Infratest dimap, the AfD secured 4.38 million more votes. Of these, 1.86 million came from people who had never voted before, 910,000 from CDU/CSU, 800,000 from the liberal FDP, 680,000 from the Social Democrats, 100,000 from the Left, and 90,000 from the Greens. The only losses recorded were to the BSW.
Why the Thriller Surrounding the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) Determines the Next Government
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is hovering around the 5% threshold, prolonging the suspense over the formation of Germany’s next government.
According to the data, the liberal FDP is not expected to secure a place in the next Bundestag. All eyes are now on the BSW, whose final standing will significantly impact the numbers in the aftermath of the election.
ARD reports that the BSW is below 5% and will therefore not enter the new Parliament. In contrast, ZDF states that the party has reached the threshold and will elect new MPs.
If the BSW makes it into Parliament, CDU/CSU will be forced to form a three-party coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens. This is because the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats together would hold 309 seats—seven short of the 316 needed for an absolute majority. The inclusion of the Greens, forming a so-called “Kenya” coalition, would bring the total to 393 seats.
On the other hand, if the BSW fails to surpass the 5% threshold, CDU/CSU could secure an absolute majority by forming a government with only the SPD.
How the Forecasts Are Shaping Up
The suspense over whether the BSW will enter Parliament continues, as the latest projections show the party hovering around the 5% threshold, while other estimates place it at 4.9%.
At the same time, CDU/CSU appears to be securing 28.5%, AfD 20.5%, SPD 16.5%, the Greens 11.9%, and the Left 8.7%.
The liberal FDP seems to be falling short, remaining outside Parliament with 4.5%.
Friedrich Merz: Government by Easter
The winner of the German elections, Friedrich Merz, aims to form a government by Easter.
“There should be enough time, at the latest until Easter, to form a new government,” he said, emphasizing the need for a quick and rational formation.
“We must become capable of acting internationally. I remain personally optimistic that we will have formed a government by Easter. Europe is waiting for Germany,” he stated.
„Wir brauchen eine zügige und vernünftige Regierungsbildung. Wir müssen international handlungsfähig werden. Ich bleibe bei meiner persönlichen Hoffnung, dass wir bis Ostern eine Regierung gebildet haben. Europa wartet auf Deutschland.” ™ pic.twitter.com/nMJ4fwcRYi
— Friedrich Merz (@_FriedrichMerz) February 23, 2025
Merz Wants a Quick New Government, but It Doesn’t Depend Solely on Him
The next Chancellor and CDU leader, Friedrich Merz, spoke about the need for a quick formation of the new government in his first statements after the announcement of the first exit polls.
However, the speed of the process does not seem to depend on Merz, as the pace will primarily depend on how many parties ultimately make it into the Bundestag and will need to negotiate to reach an agreement.
If the two parties, the liberal FDP and the xenophobic left-wing BSW, manage to hit the 5% threshold, three or four parties will be required to give the new government an absolute majority. Therefore, the participation of more parties is expected to make negotiations difficult and time-consuming.
However, if both parties remain outside the Bundestag, then an agreement could potentially be reached more quickly between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.
Trump: A Big Day for Germany
U.S. President Donald Trump commented on the result of the German elections, where the AfD came in second with a record number of votes.
Trump described it as a big day for Germany, though his comments were not without criticism.
“The people of Germany are tired of the illogical agenda, especially on energy and immigration,” he stated. Notably, Trump referred to himself in the third person, saying it was a big day “for Germany and the United States of America under the leadership of a man named Donald J. Trump.”
“It seems that the conservative party in Germany won the highly anticipated and significant elections. Just like in the U.S., the people of Germany are tired of the illogical agenda, especially regarding energy and immigration. This is a big day for Germany and for the U.S. under the leadership of Donald Trump. Congratulations to everyone – many more victories will follow,” he wrote on his account.
It should be noted that Elon Musk and J.D. Vance openly supported the AfD. However, their contribution to the outcome is uncertain, as it seems to have gathered the same percentage as it had in the polls on January 20, the day of the inauguration of the new U.S. president.
Indirect Announcement of Resignation by Olaf Scholz
“I sought the office of Chancellor and no other,” says outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, implying that he will not simply join a government.
His statement in the Berliner Runde is being interpreted as an indirect announcement of his resignation.
Friedrich Merz’s First Post
The next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, made a post on X (formerly Twitter) after the announcement of the results and his first statements before his supporters.
“We – @CDU and @CSU – won these Bundestag elections. Thank you for the trust you have shown in us and in me. And in this context, I would like to express my respect for our political opponents. We will now quickly fulfill our government mandate, because the world out there is not waiting for us. Nor does it expect long negotiations and coalition talks. We must quickly regain our ability to act,” he emphasized.
„Wir – die @CDU und die @CSU – haben diese Bundestagswahl gewonnen. Danke für das Vertrauen, das Sie uns und das Sie mir gegeben haben. Und ich möchte in diesem Zusammenhang ein Wort des Respekts für unsere politischen Wettbewerber sagen. Wir werden unserem Regierungsauftrag nun… pic.twitter.com/sFuB8C2qMr
— Friedrich Merz (@_FriedrichMerz) February 23, 2025
Voter Turnout Hits a Record of 83.5%
It appears that the voter turnout in the German elections has reached a record high.
According to the first exit polls, voter participation reached 83.5%, which means that this election saw the highest turnout since the reunification of Germany 35 years ago.
Annalena Baerbock: A Strong Government is Needed in Response to the Rise of the AfD
Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called for a strong government in response to the rapid rise of the AfD.
In doing so, she implied that the Greens, from which she comes, are open to participating in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU.
The Greens are expected to take fourth place with 12.7%, a slightly lower percentage than their result in 2021.
However, the Greens’ availability does not necessarily mean it will lead to a coalition, as the leader of the CSU, Markus Söder, emphasized to his party’s supporters that the Christian Democratic Union can form a government without the Greens, who “should go into opposition.”
The First Reaction of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius of the Social Democrats
Analysts are turning their attention to Boris Pistorius, the current Defense Minister of the Social Democrats, as they believe he could vie for the leadership of the party should Olaf Scholz step down.
Boris Pistorius stated that the Social Democrats must recognize that this is a “disastrous, disastrous result” and expressed concerns about the high percentage of the AfD. He said that democratic forces should collaborate to confront this rise.
According to the Social Democrat politician, it is up to Friedrich Merz to propose the formation of a coalition, and he argued that the SPD leadership should discuss its position on the talks.
Thriller for the Entry of FDP and BSW
The liberal FDP and the left-wing party BSW are very close to the 5% threshold, although they have not yet reached it.
Specifically, the FDP is at 4.9%, and the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is at 4.8%, with the situation expected to become clearer in the next few hours.
If both parties enter the Bundestag, the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats will not be able to form a government on their own, as they will need to cooperate with a third partner.
Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ Congratulations to Friedrich Merz
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis congratulated Friedrich Merz, calling it a decisive victory for the EPP, Germany, and Europe.
“A decisive victory for our political family, Germany, and Europe. Congratulations @_FriedrichMerz! One thing is clear: you will be the next Chancellor of Germany,” wrote Kyriakos Mitsotakis on X.
A decisive victory for our political family, for Germany, and for Europe. Congratulations @_FriedrichMerz! One thing is clear: you will be Germany’s next chancellor.
— Kyriakos Mitsotakis (@kmitsotakis) February 23, 2025
How the party percentages stand at 8:00 PM Greek time.
Who is the next German Chancellor Friedrich Merz?
“The world outside is not waiting,” said Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and winner of today’s elections, in his first statement after the release of the exit polls.
The man who seems set to become the next Chancellor is the head of the CDU, a businessman who has never been a minister and was forced to leave the government years ago after a power struggle with Angela Merkel.
In recent years, he worked in the private sector and returned to politics at the age of 63. His business activity was appealing to many Germans at a time when the German economy was stagnant.
Now 69, Merz was born and still lives in Sauerland, a region in western Germany known for its hills, hearty food, and picturesque nature. He was first elected to the European Parliament in 1989 and then to the German Bundestag in 1994.
Anti-Merkel
Although he is Merkel’s successor and comes from the same party, Merz is considered her opposite. He was once high in the ranks of the Christian Democrats but failed to take the leadership, which was claimed by the party’s rising star, Angela Merkel. Merz stepped away from politics and worked as a lawyer, while also earning money as a lobbyist.
The next Chancellor returned to politics in 2018 when Merkel was preparing to step down. At that time, he promised that he could curb the rise of the AfD by moving his party further to the right on key issues such as immigration and crime.
He returned to the Bundestag in 2021 and became the party leader in 2022.
Gaffes
As leader of the CDU, he made a series of gaffes. At the same time, he insists he is a member of the middle class, despite having a significant personal fortune, which led many Germans to mock him.
Nevertheless, Merz managed to unite his party and shift it to a more traditional conservative stance. He has promised to bring back growth to the German economy, and his business experience is considered an advantage.
As Chancellor, Merz is expected to align his foreign policy more than his predecessor with Donald Trump, particularly regarding Europe taking responsibility for its own defense. Analysts believe that Friedrich Merz is bold and will seek a more dynamic involvement of Germany in European and global affairs, while Olaf Scholz has been criticized for his cautiousness.
Merz is expected to seek a stronger role for Germany within the EU and NATO, pursue better relations with France and Poland, and adopt a tougher stance against China.
Regarding Ukraine, he has offered clear support, stating that Germany will provide a long-range cruise missile. He has also committed that Germany will meet and surpass NATO’s current target of spending 2% of GDP on defense. He is also expected to once again seek leadership in Brussels for his country.
The Controversial Collaboration
However, last month, Friedrich Merz faced criticism from many who accused him of acting recklessly by cooperating in the Bundestag with the AfD on a migration bill, despite having pledged not to collaborate with them.
His move had consequences. Hundreds of thousands of Germans took to the streets to protest. Merz came under fire from within his own party, and Angela Merkel publicly reprimanded him.
The Charts for the Exit Poll
Germany, Exit poll Infratest dimap:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) February 23, 2025
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (+5)
AfD-ESN: 20% (+10)
SPD-S&D: 16% (-10)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 14% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 9% (+4)
FDP-RE: 5% (-6)
BSW-NI: 5% (+5)
➤ https://t.co/obOCVirbpF pic.twitter.com/XhMJR7jXK7
Proud of the Result, Says the Leader of the Greens
The leader of the Greens, Robert Habeck, expressed pride in the election outcome. “I am proud that we moved beyond 10% and approached the result of 2021. None of this was a given,” he said, thanking everyone who contributed to the effort.
According to Habeck, the coming period will be marked by difficult and intense political negotiations for the formation of the new government.
Friedrich Merz’s First Statements: “We Are Ready to Govern the Country”
Friedrich Merz, the next chancellor, was welcomed with applause from those present.
“We have won today’s election,” he declared, a statement that was met with even more applause. “We won because our alliance worked together and we prepared very well for these elections,” he said, thanking everyone who contributed to the result, as well as the youth.
“We are ready to take on the governance of the country,” he emphasized.
Merz acknowledged the weight of his mission, noting that the road ahead would not be easy. He also expressed his respect for the other parties despite the intense competition.
“We will all talk to each other, and we will quickly form a government,” he stated, explaining that the public will not have to wait long for the new government to take shape, as the process must be swift.
The Social Democrats Admit Their Historic Defeat
SPD General Secretary Matthias Miers spoke of a historic defeat in the party’s first reaction following the publication of the exit polls.
Miers stated that it is now the Christian Democrats’ turn to form a government, with the responsibility for governance passing to CDU leader Friedrich Merz.
He did not clarify whether the Social Democrats would participate in the new government, adding that the party members will have the final say.
The Winners and Losers of the Elections
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) is expected to be the largest party in the next German parliament. With a projected 29%, Friedrich Merz appears poised to become the next chancellor. However, despite its gains, the party falls short of the 30% mark, which would have been considered an ideal result.
Among the clear winners is the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has achieved a record 20%, nearly doubling its 2021 election result of 10.4%.
Also considered a winner is the left-wing party Die Linke. Despite starting with very low numbers, following the split and the creation of Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance (BSW), it now appears to have secured 9%—almost double its previous election result. Analysts note that, combined, the two left-wing parties could reach 14%, a notably high figure for the German left.
The Greens saw a slight decrease in their share of the vote. However, it remains unclear whether a post-election alliance with Friedrich Merz is possible, complicating the formation of a new government.
Among the clear losers is Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has fallen to third place with just 16%. This marks the party’s lowest post-war result.
Fighting for a place in parliament are the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which played a role in triggering the snap elections, and Sahra Wagenknecht’s Alliance (BSW).
The Exit Polls of TV Channels ARD and ZDF
Deutsche Welle’s Exit Poll
According to Deutsche Welle’s exit poll, the CDU/CSU has gained 4.9 percentage points, the Left has increased its share by 3.6%, while the AfD has surged by 9.1%.
The biggest drop is seen by Olaf Scholz’s SPD. The Free Democrats have also suffered a significant decline of 6.5% and are fighting to secure a spot in parliament. The Greens have lost 1.2%, while the new left-wing party BSW appears to be at 4.7%, falling short of entry.
Alice Weidel: The next elections will come much sooner, and we will surpass the CDU
The leader of the AfD, Alice Weidel, appeared satisfied after the announcement of the exit polls.
“The next elections will come much sooner, and we will surpass the CDU,” Weidel stated, not hiding her ambitions to participate in the government—although every other party has ruled out such a possibility.
The results of the exit polls
CDU (Christian Democrats): 28.5%
AfD (Alternative for Germany): 20%
SPD (Socialists): 16.5%
Greens: 12%
FDP (Free Democrats): 5%
Die Linke (Left): 9%
In two minutes, the polls will close.
The first results from the exit polls are expected.
Who is Alice Weidel, leader of the AfD?
All eyes in Europe and the USA are on the percentage the AfD will achieve. The leader of the party is Alice Weidel, who seems to present an unconventional profile for this position.
Weidel is a lesbian, in a relationship with a partner from Sri Lanka, with whom she has two sons. In fact, although she proclaims her love for Germany, she is not even a permanent resident. Weidel splits her time between Berlin and Switzerland.
When will the exit polls be known
The first exit polls will be released as soon as the polls close, at 7 p.m. (Greek time). Due to the extensive procedures, the numbers are usually accurate. During the last elections, the exit polls showed the final result with a 1% margin.
However, this year, the exit polls are expected to be less accurate. Several voters have said they had not decided, and a number of voters will participate in the process with absentee ballots.
Süddeutsche Zeitung: Why Friedrich Merz?
The Süddeutsche Zeitung seeks to analyze the power of habit in the German elections, as well as the reasons why Friedrich Merz is a unique case of a politician who “under normal circumstances” would probably never have become chancellor.
“In Germany, nothing is more powerful than the force of habit,” writes the Munich newspaper, citing Angela Merkel as a prime example of this condition: “Four times the Christian Democratic politician won the trust of the majority of citizens – and when she voluntarily decided to step down after 16 years, the citizens voted for her deputy. He was, of course, a Social Democrat, but he could imitate Merkel very well. With Olaf Scholz, the Germans chose in 2021 to continue, to keep things familiar. Three and a half years later, the world has changed, and therefore, a new policy is required, both in terms of the program and style.”
Unless there is a significant turnaround, Germany’s next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz – something that “in a normal time” would probably not have happened, according to the SZ. “However, these are not normal times. Merz, with his conservative voluntarism, embodies the spirit of the age. And precisely because he has shown his determination, his popularity has not taken a serious hit in the polls.”
[…] The likely winner of the election is not particularly popular among Germans – and this is probably true for the entire political leadership. However, in these turbulent times, the country certainly needs a captain who will break with the power of habit.
Voter turnout at 52% nationwide
Voter participation in Germany’s elections reached 52% by 2 p.m. Polling stations will remain open until 6 p.m. In the last elections in 2021, voter turnout was 76.4%, according to the official final result.
Man threatened voters and election committee with a knife at a polling station in North Rhine-Westphalia
A dangerous incident occurred at a polling station in North Rhine-Westphalia.
According to the “Rheinische Post,” the election committee and voters were threatened by an individual with a knife at the polling station in Krefeld. “The police were notified and we are in contact with them,” a local official told RP.
The suspect was arrested by the police after a manhunt.
Fake posts for election manipulation
False information about the German elections is being posted on social media. According to Deutsche Welle, such posts are already familiar from previous electoral contests.
For example, it is once again claimed that individual ballots are being invalidated by cutting off the top right corner. However, this cut is made on all ballots to assist voters with vision problems in more easily casting their ballots into the box.
In other posts, it is claimed that certain polling stations provide voters with only pencils to fill in ballots, so they can later be altered. However, according to the federal electoral regulations, votes are valid even when filled in with non-permanent ink. According to the head of the Federal Election Commission, there is no risk of violating the fundamental principles of German electoral law (universal, direct, free, equal, secret voting): The electoral committees are staffed with members from different parties, and the counting of votes is done publicly to prevent manipulation by third parties. Voters are allowed to use their own pens.
Waiting for Merz: The outcome of the German elections determines Europe’s stance towards Trump
Amid the shock caused in Europe by the “Trump hurricane,” which forces it to lift its head out of the sand and plan its own response for the future of transatlantic relations and its path in the world, as well as the effort to maintain the excellent level of Greek-American relations regardless of the Euro-Atlantic frictions, Athens is attempting difficult balancing acts.
The Greek government and Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis feel vindicated for their valid warnings and calls for the EU to wake up and develop its military power, having caught the signals coming from the other side of the Atlantic early on. At the same time, they aim to strengthen the EU’s autonomous strategic and geopolitical role.
Topless activist protests against AfD and Russia in Berlin
A feminist activist from the group FEMEN staged a topless protest against Russia and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin.
Who would the Prime Minister of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union form a government with?
The Prime Minister of Bavaria and leader of the Christian Social Union, Markus Söder, voted in Nuremberg and expressed, according to Deutsche Welle, his complete confidence in victory.
When asked about the ideal coalition for his policies, he humorously replied, “Us with the Christian Democrats.”
Once again, he expressed opposition to collaborating with the Greens, something he has stated countless times recently.
Increased turnout in Berlin, Thuringia, and Bremen compared to 2021
In some federal states, more people have voted so far compared to the 2021 elections.
Specifically, according to data presented by Bild:
Thuringia: By noon (local time), approximately 44.5% of eligible voters had cast their ballots at polling stations (2021: 24.6%). In other words, voter turnout here is nearly double that of 2021.
Berlin: By midday, 33% of eligible voters had already voted (2021: 25.4%).
Saxony-Anhalt: At noon, voter turnout in the state stood at 37.1%, according to the state’s election director (2021: 26.5%).
Saxony: As announced by the state’s election director, Martin Richter, voter turnout at noon was 27.1% (2021: 25.9%).
Bremen: Voter participation at noon was 31.4%, as announced on the state election committee’s website (2021: 27.2%).
The Prime Minister of Lower Saxony went to the wrong polling station.
The Prime Minister of Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil from the Social Democratic Party of Germany, initially went to the wrong polling station in Hanover, according to the Ostsee Zeitung.
When he mistakenly tried to vote at a center on Kühnsstraße, election officials directed him to Bleekstraße, 800 meters away.
There, Weil finally marked his two crosses on the ballot papers and cast his vote.
They set up polling stations… even in breweries in Leverkusen.
Polling stations are not only found in schools and public buildings but also in breweries, as in the case of Leverkusen, or even in a circus hall or an ice rink in Cologne.
In Leverkusen, the Fabricius family has also been offering their living room as a polling station since the 2009 elections.
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