Polling stations in Germany opened at 09:00 Greek time and will close at 19:00, in a rare occurrence for Germans, as early elections are not the norm. While the outgoing government coalition, the so-called “traffic light coalition,” is not considered successful, several critical questions arise in the coming days, as the political scene in Germany has become significantly destabilized, and these elections have all the makings of a political thriller in many respects.

Will the Christian Democrats Reach 30%?

In the latest polls, Friedrich Merz’s party, which holds a strong lead over the runner-up, has shown a decline, recording between 28% and 29.5%. While this would be a considerably better result than the historically low 24% they secured in 2021, it remains a relatively low percentage considering the historical performance of German Christian Democracy. If the party fails to reach 30%, forming a government will become a more complex exercise, as a third party will likely be needed. Internally, however, CDU officials believe they can surpass the 30% threshold and avoid a more complicated coalition-building process.

Will Scholz Resign After the Defeat?

So far, this appears to be the most likely scenario, as the Social Democrats are polling around 15% or slightly above, marking what would be their worst result in post-war German elections. Chancellor Scholz may be the only politician from his party to secure victory in his electoral district (in Germany, 299 parliamentary seats come from direct elections in districts, while the remaining 299 are allocated proportionally). It is highly likely that he will announce his resignation from the party, as it would be difficult for him to join a government under a different chancellor. His potential successor is already being discussed, with Lars Klingbeil emerging as a leading candidate.

How Much Over 20% Will AfD Get?

According to the latest polls, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has solidified its position in second place, with a percentage exceeding 20%. The party is expected to double its strength compared to the previous elections and is likely to win in several electoral districts, not just in eastern Germany. In Berlin, there are concerns that the party’s actual percentage may be even higher, as some voters might not disclose their support in polls but still cast their vote for AfD at the ballot box. In any case, the party—which has been publicly endorsed multiple times by Elon Musk—is expected to take on the role of the main opposition, although all other parties have ruled out any cooperation with it.

A Parliament with Five, Six, or Seven Parties?

Another factor adding to the election night suspense over government formation is the uncertainty surrounding how many parties will enter parliament. Based on current data, five parties are expected to gain seats: the Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats, Alternative for Germany, the Greens, and the Left Party, which had failed to enter in 2021. The Free Democrats, led by former Finance Minister Christian Lindner, are polling at 4.5%, just below the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. In recent days, the Free Democrats have shown a slight upward trend, and experienced German pollsters note that in previous elections, their actual results were underestimated by 1 to 1.5 percentage points. Could the same happen this time? Another key question is how the BSW party of Sahra Wagenknecht, which performed well in the European elections, will fare. The party, a splinter group from the Left, also holds strong anti-immigration positions and is currently polling at 4.5%.

“Grand Coalition,” “Kenya,” or “Germany”?

The million-dollar question, of course, is which coalition will emerge the day after the elections. However, Germans typically take a few weeks to finalize a government agreement. If the Christian Democrats manage to secure just over 30%, it is believed that they could form a government with the Social Democrats, reviving the “Grand Coalition”—though it is hardly “grand” anymore. If the Free Democrats make it into parliament, the political dynamics will change. The Bavarian partners of the Christian Democrats, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are firmly opposed to including the Greens in the government. If parliament consists of six parties, a three-party coalition will most likely be necessary for government formation. Some believe pragmatism will prevail, leading to a “Kenya coalition” (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Greens). Others argue that a “Germany coalition” (named after the colors of the German flag) with Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, and Free Democrats could be the final outcome.