For 48 hours now, the US and Ukraine have in their hands a agreement in which there is essentially a signature from Kiev for a “silence” on the war fronts for at least the next 30 days. Moscow has initially announced that it is awaiting an update from Washington on the full text of the agreement in order to position itself accordingly, but the truth is that Vladimir Putin is currently facing a major dilemma…

Advance in the fields or engaging with the US?

The Russian President had made it clear last January, in his telephone conversation with his US counterpart to congratulate him on his assumption of office in the Oval Office, that Russia did not wish to enter into the process of a “breakable ceasefire“. Putin also insisted in February through Foreign Minister Lavrov in Saudi Arabia that the Kremlin has concrete – clear terms for peace and not for “half-measures”. Today, when Marco Rubio on behalf of the US and Donald Trump, has in his hands, after much tension and “acrobatics”, the Ukrainian signature for the first step, it is difficult even for the Russian President to reject but also to accept the ceasefire.

The reasons are relatively easy but not simple. Russia in the last two months has registered significant advances on the two main fronts of the war. In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces are persisting and advancing on every inch of land in the crucial valley, while in Kursk they are daily regaining settlements they have lost since last August. Moscow speaks of significant “momentum” which Putin would “sacrifice” by accepting a ceasefire. On the other hand, Trump’s return to Washington has clearly reopened the way for direct communication between the White House and the Kremlin. The Russian President understands that the opportunity to record a US-signed “victory” by holding 20% of Ukraine’s total territory and regaining some of the diplomatic capital he chose to “burn” in February 2022 by invading the neighboring country is not insignificant. The decision he will have to make is critical as he will have made the first move in a proposal for a change of course from Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden. It is clear that Russia will not enter into a ceasefire discussion without asking for and perhaps securing guarantees that this beginning will lead directly to an end-of-war table with most of the terms it has already communicated to Trump.

It is also not at all insignificant that after three years of isolation Russia is back in the spotlight again, not for military or economic reasons, but for diplomatic reasons. The mere fact that developments and what will follow are dependent on a Russian decision 50 days ago would sound incredible to say the least. The Kremlin and Putin personally have recorded a string of victories they have not “labored” for since Donald Trump decided to bring at any cost both sides to a point of dialogue. The fact that Moscow today determines by accepting or rejecting a proposal prepared by US diplomacy is another gain that today seems “small” but in the process will add up to larger ones.

If not now, when?

How Moscow chooses to respond to the ceasefire proposal is also a “bet” that touches the US President personally. Trump, who likes to make even the most complex diplomatic issues personal, wants a given “yes” from Putin’s side so that he can deliver within the first 100 days yet another of his campaign commitments. The US President wants, and this does not need much analysis, to effectively end the war in Ukraine. Getting it done is all he cares about, and that has been demonstrated by the way he treated the Ukrainian President in Washington and the decision to stop sending arms and intelligence from the US to Kiev. Trump will not give second thoughts if Putin also decides to refuse what first he and then the US propose. For the US President, the question his Russian counterpart must answer is “if not now then when?”

The first realistic chance for peace

If one attempts to detach oneself from the personal character that Donald Trump puts on all issues and manages to sterilize words from actions the US has data to move forward quickly and most importantly efficiently on the issue of the war in Ukraine. If we accept that over time “the end justifies the means” applies to both war and diplomacy then we are now at a point where an opportunity is realistically created. The first meaningful opportunity for peace. Trump’s US does not want the war to continue regardless of the conditions and demands of either side. They will do everything in their power to achieve that goal and it is critical for the other two sides to find a way for the current US “Peace by any means necessary” to become a “sustainable and lasting Peace”. For Trump’s Washington this is secondary to the success and substance of what is happening but somehow it must be understood.