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“One Big Beautiful Bill”: Trump’s pyrrhic victory for tax reform – Fears it will leave millions without health insurance

The background behind the House vote - Fears that the bill will add $2.4 trillion to the national debt - Danger for Medicaid

Newsroom May 22 06:53

 

The Republicans of the House approved today the broad bill of Donald Trump on taxes and immigration, sending it to the Senate. The party hopes the bill will “transform” the functioning of the federal government and the economy, while boosting the White House’s efforts to deport immigrants and upgrade the military.

The bill, officially dubbed “A Big Beautiful Bill,” extends trillions of dollars in tax breaks from Trump’s first term and introduces new campaign promises, such as zero tax on tips and overtime, along with hundreds of billions of dollars in additional public spending.

However, the cost of the bill is high. The latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows it would add $2.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, which already exceeds $36 trillion.

To offset the costs, the plan calls for more than $1 trillion in cuts to social safety net programs. However, it may also result in an additional 500 billion in cuts to Medicare, unless Congress changes the legal limits on the deficit in the future. The CBO projects that up to 8.7 million people will lose Medicaid coverage and an additional 7.6 million will become uninsured over the same period.

The final vote took place just before 7 a.m. Thursday morning, concluding a session that lasted more than 24 hours. Republicans pushed for passage of the bill before July, enlisting food, coffee, and energy drinks to keep exhausted lawmakers on their toes. Now, major changes are expected in the Senate, where similar intra-party tensions may trigger amendments that will reignite ideological conflicts within the GOP.

The bill has Trump’s own stamp of approval. Many of the proposals were drawn directly from his campaign rallies – such as the proposal for a zero tax on tips, which he said came out of a conversation with a waitress. The elimination of the tax on Social Security benefits was ultimately not included, with lawmakers replacing it with an additional $4,000 deduction for seniors.

When the bill was in danger of collapsing due to intra-party infighting, Trump personally intervened. He spoke at Republican events, pressured reluctant members via phone calls and held meetings at his private resort in Florida to ensure unity.

As recently as yesterday, Wednesday, the White House warned that any GOP rejection of the bill would constitute “ultimate treason.” That afternoon, Trump summoned the most hardline members of Congress to the White House, with instructions to “discipline” them. A few hours later, the dissenters were dissuaded.

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Republicans argue that the US economy is poised for a growth boom if the tax breaks are given. “With this bill, your life will improve dramatically because you will have more money in your pocket,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told a conservative audience Tuesday.

However, many economists point to uncertainty in the markets due to Trump’s tariffs, which have disrupted supply chains and could lead to a new wave of inflation.

The fiscal impact of the bill has worried investors. On Wednesday, as the deal neared and additional cuts were abandoned, bond yields rose, signaling rising concern about U.S. economic health. Republicans are trying to pass the bill through the budget reconciliation process to circumvent the possibility of it getting stuck in the Senate. But that process has strict rules that could threaten the bill’s ultimate passage.

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