Israel appears to be preparing an imminent military strike against Iran, according to U.S. and European officials, in a development that could spark a generalized flare-up in the Middle East and derail the Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program.

According to the New York Times, concern about an imminent Israeli attack, and the possibility of fierce Iranian retaliation, led Washington on Wednesday to remove diplomats from Iraq and to authorize the voluntary departure of family members of U.S. military personnel from areas of the Middle East.

It remains unknown the scope of the operation that Israel may be preparing. However, concern has been heightened after months in which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed President Trump to exploit Iran’s “vulnerability” to give the green light to an attack.

Trump had rejected an earlier Israeli proposal for military action, insisting he wanted to give a chance to negotiate a new nuclear pact that would block Iranian nuclear production. Two weeks earlier he had warned Netanyahu not to take aggressive action while negotiations were ongoing.

However, according to officials, Trump has lately appeared less optimistic. The Iranian supreme leader’s rejection of a proposal to phase out uranium enrichment appears to have reinforced the pessimism in the White House.

Netanyahu has in the past come close to implementing a military operation against Iran, but without going ahead at the last minute. Now, however, the dynamic appears to have changed.

The US decision to withdraw personnel was made public at the same time as a warning from a British maritime authority, which advised merchant ships transiting the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman to exercise increased caution because of “heightened tensions that could lead to a military escalation.”

According to an Iranian official, Tehran has already drawn up a plan for an immediate response, including launching hundreds of ballistic missiles against Israel. In October 2024, a similar missile attack caused limited damage as the US intervened to intercept it.

Trump had a phone call with Netanyahu on Monday, without revealing details. That was preceded on Sunday by a meeting between the president and the national security team at Camp David.

Iran’s defense minister, Gen. Aziz Nasserzadeh, said that in the event of a conflict, the U.S. would suffer heavy losses: “America will be forced to withdraw from the region. All its military bases are within our reach and we will strike them without hesitation,” he said.

In addition, Iranian officials reacted strongly to statements by General Michael Kurila, head of US Central Command (CENTCOM), who testified to Congress that he has presented Trump with a “wide range of options” for a possible strike against Iran. His scheduled Senate testimony on Thursday was postponed without explanation.

All of this is unfolding alongside meetings of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board in Vienna. The US, Britain, France and Germany submitted a resolution condemning Iran’s progress on its nuclear program and its violation of its commitments under the 2015 agreement. A vote is expected on Thursday.

If approved, the resolution could lead to the reimposition of UN sanctions – the so-called “snapback” process. Iran has already warned of a strong reaction, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying: “This condemnation will provoke a FAST reaction.”

The Trump administration had unilaterally withdrawn the US from the deal in 2018. Iran argues that this decision legitimizes the abandonment of the restrictions. The Europeans, however, insist that the agreement remains active and can be reimposed with sanctions.

Meanwhile, no scheduled negotiations have been cancelled. U.S. and Iranian negotiators were planning a new meeting Sunday in Oman, though Trump said Monday that Iran has adopted an “unacceptable posture.” Special envoy Steve Whitcoff reportedly still plans to attend.

The U.S. State Department did not provide information on the number of people being withdrawn, but the Associated Press reported that non-essential personnel were being recalled from the embassy in Baghdad, and that approval was given for staff and families to leave the embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait.

The removal of dependent military personnel mainly involves Navy and Marine families in Bahrain, where a major U.S. naval base operates.

Analysts point out that Iran’s nuclear program has made tremendous progress since 2018. It is now estimated that Tehran has the capability to produce material for up to 10 nuclear bombs. Building an operational weapon, if decided, would require several additional months. However, many Israeli officials judge that the situation has already gone beyond the limit of tolerance.

Several in Israel believe that now is the right time to address the issue. Hamas and Hezbollah – Iran’s proxy organizations – have been weakened, and the 2023 Israeli airstrikes have seriously weakened Iran’s anti-aircraft defenses.

However, other analysts point out that Iran is rapidly restoring its defense infrastructure, meaning that the window of opportunity for Israel may be closing. Moreover, it remains unclear whether Israel could deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. support.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday afternoon, with US crude topping $68 a barrel – the highest level since early April, when Trump had imposed tariffs on almost all US trading partners. Possible military flare-ups or tougher sanctions against Iran could destabilise the global market.

The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson has been in the Arabian Sea for weeks, carrying more than 60 aircraft, including F-35s. According to a Navy source, there are no plans to move the ship at this time.

The US also maintains dozens of fighter and bomber aircraft in the region, which were used extensively to intercept Iranian missiles against Israel in 2024.

As diplomacy wanes and armies are put on alert, the question remains: will Israel become the spark of a new war in the Middle East – and how will the rest of the world react if that happens?