Analysts believe that Iran’s temporary “paralysis” following the widespread Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities is not expected to last long, with experts warning that Tehran will retaliate immediately as Israel “crossed the Rubicon.”
“Iran’s leadership is likely in disarray, but this paralysis is not expected to last,” Shina Toussi, a senior research fellow at the Center for International Politics, said in a statement to CNN. He even warned that “large-scale retaliation, possibly using drones and missiles against Israeli territory, seems imminent.”
Toussi added that “rather than crippling Iran’s military and nuclear capabilities, escalation by Israel risks fuelling nationalist sentiment, strengthening internal cohesion and triggering a dangerous cycle of counter-attack, while increasing the chances of US involvement.”
Iran’s response is expected to be larger than the October attack, when Iranian missiles hit Israeli military installations, according to Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington. “It would be difficult for Iran not to retaliate,” Parsi said, though he clarified that it was unclear how long it would take Tehran to recover from the Israeli strikes.
Referring to the Israeli attack, Parsi argued that Israel “attempted to eliminate several of the parameters governing the use of force and international law, bringing the situation in the region to a point where the law of the jungle prevails.”
Sina Tusi also mentioned that former President Donald Trump had warned Israel not to go ahead with strikes, noting, however, that “whether it was a strategic ploy or genuine containment is now irrelevant. The Rubicon has been overcome,” Toussi said.
Ask me anything
Explore related questions